Surya Semesta Internusa (SSIA IJ)

9M25 Missed Expectation, but Subang’s LT Outlook is Intact; Upgrade to Buy on Better Entry Point

 

  • Soft pre-sales bookings and hotel business performance led to soft 9M25 earnings, with PATMI at only Rp6bn (2/3% of our/cons. FY25F).
  • SSIA lowered revenue/NP guidance by 8%/34% and we also lowered our PATMI by 34%/30%, reflecting weak hotels and higher MI in 9M25.
  • Raising our disc. to RNAV to 58% and cut TP to Rp2,050, yet upgrade rating to Buy on better entry level amid intact Subang’s LT EV-hub story.

 

Soft Pre-Sales in 9M25. FY26 Subang Growth Expected to Normalize.

SSIA booked only 6/12ha core pre-sales in Karawang/Subang up to 9M25, still below its FY25F target of 17/120ha and our estimates of 17/80ha, as it is still processing another 16-20ha inquiries from a heavy equipment manufacturer and 80-90ha from China-based automaker for 4Q25 booking. SSIA maintained its FY25F pre-sales target but expects normalization in FY26F to ~15-35ha in Karawang’s (last landbank) and ~60ha in Subang, targeting Korean or Japan-based automakers through marketing collaboration with Sumitomo group.

 

Trimming Our FY25F/26F PATMI by 34%/30% from Weaker Hotel Revenue

Amid no major land sales booked in 9M25, Melia Bali’s renovation and a lower occupancy in Melia JKT (62%/40% in 9M24/25) from weaker gov’t spending (aggr. Hotel revenue -58% yoy), 9M25 earnings were only supported by its low margin construction segment (PATMI at only Rp6bn, 2/3% of our/cons. FY25F). SSIA lowered its FY25F revenue/NP guidance by 8/34% from previously Rp6.5tr/304bn to Rp6.0tr/200bn. Incorporating the results, we maintain our FY25F/26F pre-sales at 97ha (vs. co guidance at 137/75-95ha), from Subang/Karawang of 17/80ha each year, anticipating the risks of 4Q25 potential land sales bookings delayed into FY26. Meanwhile, we trimmed our FY25F hotel revenue by 19% and raised Minority Interest to reflect 9M25 results, lowering our FY25F/26F PATMI by 34%/30% to Rp201/288bn.

 

Lowering TP due to Higher RNAV Disc.; Upgrade to Buy on Better Entry Point

We maintain our Subang ASP assumption but apply a higher RNAV discount from previously 50% to 58% (+3STD of 5-Yr. Mean), incorporating the absence of synergy project with Barito-Djarum Group since its entry in Jul25. This lowers our TP to Rp2,050. However, we upgrade our rating to Buy, as current valuation offers better entry opportunity for SSIA’s intact LT story of EV ecosystem hub, ample low-cost labor (909k workers, UMR Rp3.5mn/ mo, ~37% below Karawang/ Bekasi) with direct access to Greater Jakarta market from Cipali-Patimban toll access, and resilient non-land business (~34% of gross profit). Key downside risk is further toll-road delays.

 

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