Surya Semesta Internusa (SSIA.IJ Rp 2.740; HOLD TP Rp 2,475) Subang Prospects Intact, Yet Positive Outlook Largely Priced-In. Downgrade Rating to Hold

Stock Code	Last Price	Change	Change %
DSSA	67,000	1,825	2.80%
SMAR	4,320	530	13.98%
INDF	8,775	400	4.78%
RATU	7,725	250	3.34%
PNGO	3,030	220	7.83%
UNVR	1,680	150	9.80%
DSNG	1,385	145	11.69%
PANI	16,150	125	0.78%

Surya Semesta Internusa (SSIA IJ)

Subang Prospects Intact, Yet Positive Outlook Largely Priced-In. Downgrade Rating to Hold

Barito’s stake addition has narrowed SSIA’s discount to RNAV though thus far the group remains a passive investor with minimal synergy talk.
Despite continued accumulation by Djarum and Subang’s EV ecosystem appeal, current price appears to have priced in most of the LT story.
We raise TP to Rp2,475 (50% RNAV discount) but downgrade to Hold, as current price offers limited upside, while monetization risk remains.

Barito Group Entry: Remain as Passive Investor

Barito Group’s 6.05% stake purchase via TPIA has driven the narrowing of SSIA’s RNAV discount from ~72% in Jun25 to its latest of 44%, lower than 10yr. average of 69%. Our latest check with the company, however, suggests that Barito may remain a passive investor, with minimum synergy talks between Subang Smartpolitan and Barito’s Griya Idola Patimban Industrial Estate (~55km apart; 600ha vs. SSIA’s ~1,500 ha). The only link so far is NRCA’s Rp50bn basic infra construction at Griya Idola, yet this is relatively small vs. its Rp3.3tr order book.

Current Discount to RNAV Reflects Almost All the Long-Term Outlook

Aside from Barito’s entry, the stock’s sentiment has been bolstered by Djarum’s continued stake accumulation (at SSIA level, to 9.11% in late Jul25 from 5.3% in early Jul25), on top of its May24 purchase of 36.5% stake at subsidiary level, SCS). We believe that the current price, which trades at 44% disc. to RNAV, has priced in most of SSIA’s long-term potential. This includes EV ecosystem, ample low-cost labor (909k workers, UMR Rp3.5mn/ mo, ~37% below Karawang/ Bekasi), future Cipali–Patimban toll access, and resilient non-land business contribution (~39% of gross profit). The remaining discount should reflect risks of toll-road delays and slow Subang monetization amid subdued FDI.

Downgrade to Hold despite Higher TP of Rp2,475 on Limited Upside

Incorporating several factors: 1) potentially on-track progress of Patimban Toll Road (Exhibit 5), 2) presence of Barito-Djarum which could hasten Subang’s pre-sales from its wider conglomerate network to reach out, we increased our land ASP assumption in Subang’s NAV calculation by ~5%, and lower our discount to RNAV from 73% to 50%, to arrive at a higher TP of Rp2,475. We kept the 50% discount to reflect the project’s long-dated nature and see that lower discount may only be justified by the involvement/ synergy with the Barito-Djarum. The current low discount could also offer ST opportunity for profit-taking, given the lack of positive catalyst for the industrial estate sector unless we see strong FDI/bulk sales from global names.

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