GOTO Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO.IJ Rp 85; BUY TP Rp 110) Well In Line 1Q25 Results: Robust Profitability in Low Season; Dual Approach Offers Growth Leeways

Stock Code	Last Price	Change	Change %
DCII	160,000	3,000	1.91%
MLPT	33,975	2,350	7.43%
DSSA	49,600	1,400	2.90%
CTBN	4,410	400	9.98%
TPIA	9,100	400	4.60%
FORU	1,830	235	14.73%
INCO	2,870	220	8.30%
ANTM	2,750	210	8.27%

GOTO Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)

Well In Line 1Q25 Results: Robust Profitability in Low Season; Dual Approach Offers Growth Leeways

ODS posted 89%yoy adj EBITDA growth in 1Q25 with enhanced monetization focused on premium products and efficient incentives.
GTF recorded 1Q25 90% adj. EBITDA growth with net revenue increase and 108% rise in loan book to reach Rp5.7tr, while managing low NPL. 
GOTO's dual strategy and e-commerce opportunities underpin its premium valuation of 4.7x price/sales; maintain Buy rating (TP Rp110).

Balancing between GTF growth and ODS monetization elevated 1Q25 EBITDA

GOTO core GTV reached Rp83.2tr (+5.0% qoq, +54.4% yoy) driven by core GTF and strong Gopay Hadiah THR tailwind. Loan balance is upbeat reaching Rp5.7tr (+10% qoq, +108% yoy) with small uptick in NPL of 70bps qoq to 1.1%. This traction allowed GTF adj. EBITDA to sequentially grow again (Rp47bn +235% qoq). ODS’ GTV was trending well, in line with seasonality, (-7.9% qoq, +17.1% yoy), as it focused primarily on monetization with ODS subscriptions and premium products. This approach allowed GOTO to lower incentives and variable costs, increasing its CM. OPEX grew only by 3.4%qoq resulting to large upside in ODS adj. EBITDA (Rp314bn, +17.6% qoq, 89.2% yoy). Combining ODS, GTF, ecommerce and corp.costs adj. EBITDA reached Rp393, well inline.

GRAB focused on growth in contrast to GOTO’s ecosystem focus

We think GOTO’s balanced ODS-GTF strategy fits better in a weak macro, especially amid M&A rumors. GRAB reported 44.5mn ODS MTUs (+1.4% qoq, +15.6% yoy), 7mn DTUs, and a 119mn ATU TAM, while GOTO gave no ODS user update. GRAB raised incentives yoy, while GOTO continued rationalizing. GRAB’s ODS EBITDA rose at slower pace (+5.7% qoq, +23.3% yoy) than GOTO’s stronger growth. GOTO is scaling via GTF (20.6mn MTUs), broadening its user funnel for future growth.

Maintain Buy rating amid solid market positioning and competition tailwind

We maintain our FY25 adj. EBITDA estimate of Rp1.7tr, which is supported by GOTO’s balanced ODS-GTF strategy (1Q25 already met 23% of our FY25F est). GOTO has consistently met its guidance, which was reaffirmed at Rp1.4–1.6tr for FY25. Meanwhile, GRAB raised its FY25 EBITDA guidance by 3.3% with revenue target unchanged, signaling room for less cash burn hence, amenable competition for Gojek and GRAB. GOTO’s e-commerce fees rose (Rp217bn, +16% qoq), likely driven by a GMV boost from Shop Tokped, reinforcing GOTO’s broader ecosystem leverage. We believe this supports GOTO’s premium valuation of 4.7x price/sales. We thus maintain our Buy rating with TP of Rp110, based on our SOTP of 3 verticals. The key downside risk remains the macro headwinds, but online platforms have more levers to address challenges.

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