Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ)

Monetizing Assets, Accelerating Growth; Initiate with Buy Rating

• BRMS is poised to double its gold production to 150k oz in FY28, backed by CPM underground mining, and GM’s gold pour starts by FY26.
• We project earnings to grow by 94%/28% in FY25-26F, mainly driven by production growth in CPM and gold price assumption of US$3,100/Oz.
• We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and SOTP-based TP of Rp480 amid strong growth outlook and potential upside on reserve.

Underground mining in CPM to boost production growth in 2027

After completing heap leach processing capacity in 3Q25, BRMS’ CPM mine will continue its gold activity underground. With a promising high grade underground reserve of 3mn Oz at an avg. grade of 4.9g/t, we project BRMS to double its current gold output to above 150k Oz p.a. by FY28, compared to 74k Oz in FY25F, based on our estimates. Correspondingly, we also expect BRMS’ FY25-27F earnings to grow at a CAGR of 28%, showing no signs of slowing down.

Drilling in Gorontalo offers potential reserve and valuation upside

BRMS’ crown jewel, Gorontalo Minerals (GM), is scheduled for its initial gold pour by 3Q26. Though GM is mainly a copper asset, BRMS will first extract its gold in Motomboto to generate cash flow to support its lengthy and costly copper drilling and exploration program for a JORC reserve figure. We believe potential resource/ reserve addition from its drilling campaign may drive further valuation upside, though GM currently has made up for the majority of our SOTP valuation (c.58%).

Solid FY24-25F earnings growth outlook from higher output and ASP

BRMS has recorded its 1Q25 earnings of US$14.5mn, which is already ahead of our/cons estimate at 30.9%/28.6%. We expect 2Q25 earnings to slow down despite a higher gold price due to the implementation of a higher royalty rate of 16% (vs. 10%) and a lower gold grade that was processed throughout the quarter. Nonetheless, we project BRMS to post FY25-27F earnings of US$46.7mn/ 59.7mn/77.1mn, growing by +94%/+28%/+29% yoy on the back of stronger gold output of 74k/77k/94k Oz and our gold price assumption of US$3,100/Oz.

Initiate with Buy rating with a SOTP-based TP of Rp480

We initiate coverage with Buy rating on solid earnings growth outlook amid prospect for asset monetization in the next 3 years, despite its current 73x FY25F PE. Our TP of Rp480 is derived using SOTP of its assets, using gold EV/Resource assumption of US$510/oz based on current peers’ valuation. We see potential catalysts from stronger gold ASP, accelerating production, and additional resource/reserve from GM exploration. Downside risks include: 1) lower production, grade, and ASP; 2) delays in project execution; 3) weak drilling results.

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