- IDR undervaluation is widening, but persistent external pressure raises structural shift risks and increases BI hike probability.
- Outflow risks remain the key catalyst, keeping pressure on market and FX, reinforcing the need for stronger stability measures.
- Bond and equity divergence continued, with recent foreign inflows into SBN contrasting with persistent equity foreign outflows.
HIGHLIGHTS
- Mispricing or Structural Shift?
- The Next Key Risk.
- BRI MSME Index: Still Expansionary in 2Q26 although growth may moderate.
- Fixed Income vs Equity Divergence.
- Upcoming SBSN Auction.
- Previous SBSN Auction Result.
This Week Key Focus
- China Retail Sales – April 2026 (Monday)
- China Loan Prime Rate 1Y and 5Y – May 2026 (Wednesday)
- Indonesia Interest Rate Decision – May 2026 (Wednesday)
- Indonesia Loan Growth – April 2026 (Wednesday)
- Japan Trade Balance – April 2026 (Thursday)
- Japan Headline and Core Inflation – April 2026 (Friday)
Last week Key Events
GLOBAL UPDATES
- US inflation accelerated to 3.8% YoY in April 2026.
- US retail sales rose 0.5% MoM in April 2026.
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Indonesia’s retail sales grew 3.4% YoY in March 2026.
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