- Worsening Middle East tensions raise market volatility prompting us to adjust yield forecast and flag higher risks.
- Prolonged tensions may keep BI hawkish, as rising yields, rupiah weakness, and inflation risks outweigh growth support.
- Markets now price only one Fed cut in 2026 as rising inflation and softer growth strengthen stagflation concerns
HIGHLIGHTS
- Recent developments remain unfavorable
- Could a Rate Hike Be Back on the Table?
- The Fed: Market Now Only Pricing in One Rate Cut in 2026
- Another Downgrade in Outlook
- Yield Spiked on Rising Geopolitics Risk
- Fixed Income Flows
- Upcoming SBSN Auction
- Previous SBSN Auction Results
This Week Key Focus
- China Inflation Rate – February 2026 (Monday)
- Indonesia Consumer Confidence – February 2026 (Monday)
- Indonesia Retail Sales – January 2026 (Tuesday)
- China Trade Balance – January-February 2026 (Tuesday)
- United States Inflation and Core Inflation – February 2026 (Wednesday)
- United States Trade Balance – January 2026 (Thursday)
- United States PCE and Core PCE Price Index – January 2026 (Friday)
Last week Key Events
GLOBAL UPDATES
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 92K in February 2026
- US retail sales declined 0.2% mom in January 2026
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves declined to USD 151.9 billion in February 2026
To see the full version of this weekly update, please click here
