• The slowdown in growth support weighs on asset recovery, reflecting challenges similar to those seen in 2015–2016.
• In those periods, fiscal and monetary efforts addressed economic challenges, unlike now, where monetary policy prioritizes stability.
• Despite tight fiscal space, the deficit remains unchanged, but risks widening without further measure. We revised our yield forecast.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Finding Similarities
• What’s the Responses And Mitigating Measures
• Limited Fiscal Scope, Still No Change in Deficit Outlook
• Capital Market – Rising Yield on the Continue Weaker IDR
• Government Securities (SUN) Auction Announcement – Tuesday, March 18, 2025

This Week Key Focus

• Interest Rate Focus – March 2025
• Indonesia recorded a USD3.12 billion trade surplus in February 2025
• China Retail Sales and Industrial Output grew 4% and 5.9% y-y in 2M25

Last week Key Events

GLOBAL UPDATES

• US headline and core CPI rose 0.2% m-m in Feb-25

DOMESTIC UPDATES

• Fiscal balance shifted to a deficit of IDR31.2tn (-0.13% of GDP) in 2M25
• Indonesia's Consumer Confidence remained optimistic 126.4 in Feb-25
• Retail sales are expected to contract by 0.5% y-y in Feb-25

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