BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – JCI Earnings Yield vs. Bonds Yield

Stock Code	Last Price	Change	Change %
DSSA	56,000	1,375	2.52%
ADES	12,250	450	3.81%
ADMF	9,125	225	2.53%
CTBN	8,500	200	2.41%
SRAJ	4,200	200	5.00%
SHID	860	170	24.64%
MBSS	1,530	155	11.27%
UDNG	1,475	130	9.67%

BRIDS Market Pulse

In the spotlight

Market review: JCI rose by a strong 4% w-w, outperforming peers, amid strong inflows from foreign investors (US$306mn), largely into big-cap banks. Utilities (+21.7% w-w), Coal (+8.2%) and Banks (+7.7%) outperformed, as investors shift towards the laggards, while investors also continue to chase the rate sensitive sectors (Property, Telco Tower) ahead of BI rate decision this week.
Apr25 4W and Cement industry data: The positive Apr25 yoy data for 4W and cement (INTP’s) was largely attributed to the shift in Eid holidays. On a cumulative basis, 4M25 sales volume of -3% yoy (for both 4W and INTP volume) were still below our expectation. Nonetheless, the start of positive momentum (as indicated by the slight rise yoy in 3mMA volume) in Apr25 is encouraging.

Automotive: Apr25 national 4W wholesale sales rose +5% yoy to 51.2k units, bringing 4M25 sales to 256.4k units (-3% yoy). ASII posted flat wholesale sales of 27k units, with 4M25 of 137.8k units (-6% yoy), which translates to a lower market share of 53.9% (vs. FY24: 56.3%). The high-end segment (Toyota, Lexus) remained the driver for ASII sales, combined up 5% yoy in 4M25, partly offsetting the drop in Daihatsu sales (-21% yoy). Meanwhile, market sales growth was heavily dominated by the BEV models which recorded +209% yoy in 4M25 and has gained further market share to 9.2%.
Cement: INTP Apr25 sales volume rose +19% yoy, driven by bag segment (+24% yoy) and the bulk segment (+6% yoy). We see INTP’s earnings contribution in 1Q25 as in line with seasonality (weakest quarter in 1Q and during Ied holiday), with potential catalyst if bulk segment continues to recover in 2Q25 onwards.

EXCL: hopeful for an ARPU rebound in 3Q25. We hosted a well-attended meeting with XL-Smart new management. Mgmt acknowledged that the ARPU decline in 1Q25 was due to industry competition as new starter packs are at 70-80% discount to regular packages. Nonetheless, EXCL believes that 1Q25 ARPU should mark the bottom, with data yield expected to improve as the standardized 35k starter packs are implemented. It reiterates annual pre-tax cost savings of US$300-400mn, including an estimated US$100mn to be realized in FY25. Still, there is no specific guidance on revenue growth for FY25.
KLBF: limited room for price increase, but volume growth holds up well. We hosted a call with KLBF management which reiterated FY25 revenue growth guidance of 8-10% yoy, noting that 1Q25 +6% yoy growth was volume-driven, though it acknowledged limited room for price increases. Even in the unbranded generic (BPJS) pharma business, KLBF continues to see sustainable double-digit volume growth in 1Q25, with no major issues in receivables collection. The key strategy will remain focused on managing raw materials costs and maintaining opex level at 26-27% to revenue. Overall usage of RMB-based materials has been increasing but remains below 10% of aggregate raw materials costs.