BRIDS Market Pulse

10 januari 2025 (1).png

In the spotlight

 

  • Market: JCI experienced a sharp -5.2% wow correction and under-performed majority of EM peers, driven by a combination of weak results from banks (i.e., BMRI) and sharp drop in BREN, PTRO and CUAN amid the news of exclusion from upcoming MSCI review. Foreign investors were net sellers with -US$233mn amid major outflow in BMRI (-US$138mn).

 

  • FY24 results recap: BMRI missed, BRIS beat, Consumers in-line
  • Banks: FY24 banking sector earnings were out (ex-BBRI), with BBNI and BMRI posting lower-than-expected 4Q24 earnings (97-98% of consensus FY24 forecast), albeit more inline with our conservative forecast (for BBNI). The banks’ 4Q24 results displayed trends of tight liquidity, marked with rising LDR (BMRI: 98%, BBNI: 96%). While this has been previously anticipated, BMRI management’s guidance on FY25 outlook revealed moderating growth outlook, including target to lower LDR to mid-to-low 90% which implied deposit growth of at least 14%. Following the FY24 results, we have lowered our FY25-26F forecast for BMRI by 5/7%. Meanwhile, BRIS FY24 results beat ours and consensus est. on lower CoC, with FY25 loan growth target expectation maintained at 14-16%. Our top pick in the sector remains BBCA (Buy, TP Rp11,900).
  • Consumers sector was a bright spot amid in-line FY24 expectation and guidance from KLBF (Buy, TP Rp1,800) and SIDO (upgraded to Buy with unchanged TP of Rp640). KLBF reported unaudited FY24 revenue of Rp32.6tr (+7.2% yoy) and guides for a bigger shift toward RMB-based API purchase to reduce its exposure in USD.
  • Overall, our latest banking sector FY25-26 forecast (post FY24 results), implies a slight (~0.5ppt) downside to our base-case FY25 EPS growth forecast (of 6.5%).
  • Commodities:
  • Coal: China’s restocking activity has started post CNY, as indicated by rising inventory in China ports. However, this failed to improve Indonesian coal price, as ICI4 fell by another 0.2% wow to US$48.48/t while Newcastle futures also fell 3.3% wow to US$111.1/t.    

 

… Read More 20250210 BRIDSMarketPulse