HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Yield of 10-year Indonesia Government Bonds is 7.026% on March 18, 2025, vs 6.994% the day before. Meanwhile, the UST 10yr fell 2bps at 4.29% yesterday.
  2. Government bonds volume was IDR69.15 trillion, and it was dominated by medium term (5-15 years). It was increased than the previous day transaction of IDR60.51 trillion. The volume higher than its YTD average of IDR48.81 trillion. While the outright transaction reached IDR39.55 trilion advanced from the previous day's transaction which amount to IDR14.42 trilion.
  3. Meanwhile, the total volume of corporate bonds was recorded at IDR2,219 billion, dominated by short term (< 5 years). The transaction volume declined compared to the previous day's volume of IDR2,665 billion. The volume higher compared to this year's average of IDR2,190 billion. Meanwhile, outright transaction recorded at IDR2,219 billion dropped from the previous day's transaction of IDR2,658 billion.
  4. The Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar weakened by 0.15% to IDR16,425 from IDR16,400 while the JCI dropped -3.84% from 6,472 to 6,223. Then Brent was up from 71.61 to 72.37 USD per barrel, while WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot price increased from 67.18 to 67.58 USD per barrel.

DOMESTIC UPDATES

  1. The Government Securities auction on March 18, 2025, recorded total incoming bids of IDR 61.76 trillion, down from IDR 75.78 trillion in the previous auction on March 4, 2025. The FR0104 series attracted the highest demand, with bids reaching IDR 34.66 trillion and a yield range of 6.67%–6.87%, followed by FR0103 (IDR 12.73 trillion, 6.96%–7.12%) and SPN12260305 (IDR 5.15 trillion, 6.25%). The government awarded IDR 28 trillion, exceeding the IDR 26 trillion target, resulting in a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.21x. (DJPPR)
  2. Bank Indonesia will announce the BI Rate today at around 2 PM. We expect a rate cut to 5.50% (Cons: 5.75%) to strengthen their support signal for domestic growth. In our view, BI could cut rates by a total of 75bps this year, while the government introduces more stimulus to prevent a structural slowdown in domestic demand. (BRIDS Economic Research)
  3. OECD lowered Indonesia’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.2%, reflecting a broader slowdown across G20 countries. Inflation in 2025 is also expected to decline to 1.8% from the previous estimate of 2.1%. (Bisnis)

 

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