HIGHLIGHTS
- The yield on the 10-year Indonesian Government Bond stood at 6.611% on July 1, 2025, down from 6.628% on the previous trading day. Meanwhile, UST 10yr yield up by 2bps to 4.26% yesterday.
- Government bond trading volume reached IDR79.62 trillion, primarily driven by medium-term tenors (5–15 years). This marked an increase from the previous day's volume of IDR52.83 trillion and was also above the year-to-date (YTD) average of IDR50.61 trillion. Outright transactions amounted to IDR55.28 trillion, rising from IDR31.07 trillion in the prior session.
- Total corporate bond trading volume stood at IDR3.41 trillion, dominated by short-term instruments (less than 5 years). The volume declined from IDR4.13 trillion recorded the previous day but remained above the YTD average of IDR2.97 trillion. Outright transactions amounted to IDR3.41 trillion, also down from IDR3.83 trillion in the previous session.
- On the currency and equity front, the Indonesian Rupiah appreciated by 0.25% against the US Dollar to IDR16,198 from IDR16,238. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 0.18% from 6,928 to 6,915. In the commodities market, Brent crude oil declined from USD69.01 to USD67.96 per barrel, while WTI Cushing crude dropped from USD65.52 to USD65.11 per barrel.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49 in June 2025 from 48.5 in May, compared to forecasts of 48.8, signalling economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month. (Trading Economics)
- The number of job openings in the US rose by 374,000 to 7.769 million in May 2025, the highest level since November 2024 and well above market expectations of 7.3 million. (Trading Economics)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- The Government Securities (Surat Utang Negara) auction held on July 1, 2025, garnered total incoming bids of IDR121.68 trillion, significantly higher than the IDR81.03 trillion recorded in the previous auction on June 17, 2025. The FR0104 series received the highest demand, attracting IDR43.16 trillion in bids within a yield range of 6.24%–6.40%. This was followed by FR0103 and FR0106, which secured IDR39.12 trillion and IDR18.03 trillion in bids, respectively. The FR0103 series offered yields between 6.58%–6.70%, while the FR0106 series ranged from 6.92%–7.04%. The government awarded a total of IDR32 trillion, exceeding its initial target of IDR27 trillion. Consequently, the auction achieved a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.80x. (MoF)
- Indonesia’s headline inflation rose to 1.87% y/y (0.19% m/m) in June 2025, mainly driven by a 1.0% m/m rise in rice prices—the fastest in a year. Despite the increase, demand-side pressures remained soft, with core inflation easing to 2.37% y/y and rising just 0.07% m/m, the weakest pace in two years, still led by gold jewelry. Administered prices rose 1.34% y/y and volatile food prices 0.57% y/y. Year-to-date inflation reached 1.38%, largely due to gold jewelry and higher PAM water tariffs. (BPS)
- Indonesia’s trade surplus widened sharply to USD4.3bn in May 2025 from USD0.16bn the previous month, as exports jumped 9.7% y/y to USD24.6bn—the highest since Nov 2022—led by strong growth in manufacturing goods. Exports to the US remained resilient despite higher tariffs, with 5M25 growth accelerating to 18.5% y/y. Imports also rose 4.1% y/y to USD20.3bn, driven by non-oil and gas imports, including a record USD7.3bn in shipments from China. (BPS)
- Indonesia’s government has revised the 2025 state budget , lowering revenue and spending targets to 95% and 97% of the original posture, respectively. As a result, the fiscal deficit is projected to widen to IDR662 trillion, or 2.78% of GDP—up from the earlier estimate of 2.5%. The revision assumes 7.6% y/y nominal GDP growth, with state revenue at IDR2,865.5 trillion, tax revenue at IDR2,076.9 trillion, and state spending at IDR3,527.5 trillion. Real GDP growth is expected to range between 4.7%–5%. (Bloomberg)
- Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 in June 2025, marking the third consecutive month of contraction. Weaker demand and output led to the sharpest drop in employment in four years, while stagnant exports, reduced purchasing, and declining backlogs further signaled broad-based weakness. Input cost inflation eased but cost pressures persisted, and business confidence sank to an eight-month low. (S&P)
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