HIGHLIGHTS
- Yield of 10-year Indonesia Government Bonds is 6.298% on January 19, 2026, vs 6.249% the day before.
- Government bonds volume was IDR49.05 trillion, and it was dominated by medium term (5-15 years). It was advanced than the previous day transaction of IDR26.39 trillion. The volume lower than its YTD average of IDR49.43 trillion. While the outright transaction reached IDR38.71 trilion advanced from the previous day's transaction which amount to IDR23.52 trilion.
- Meanwhile, the total volume of corporate bonds was recorded at IDR2,162 billion, dominated by short term (< 5 years). The transaction volume advanced compared to the previous day's volume of IDR1,974 billion. The volume lower compared to this year's average of IDR3,313 billion. Meanwhile, outright transaction recorded at IDR2,157 billion was up from the previous day's transaction of IDR1,971 billion.
- The Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar weakened by 0.34% to IDR16,942 from IDR16,885 while the JCI advanced 0.64% from 9,075 to 9,134. Then Brent dropped from 68.68 to 67.61 USD per barrel, while WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot price declined from 62.02 to 59.44 USD per barrel.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- China’s GDP grew 4.5% y/y in 4Q25, slightly above expectations but marking the weakest quarterly pace in 2025. Full-year growth reached 5.0% y/y, in line with Beijing’s target, showing resilience amid trade tensions. Domestic demand remained soft despite subsidies, while growth was supported by smaller-than-expected US tariffs, a brief trade truce, and export diversification. (Bloomberg)
- China’s retail sales grew 0.9% y/y in December 2025, slowing from 1.3% and missing expectations despite ongoing stimulus. This marked the weakest growth since December 2022, reflecting a soft labor market, a prolonged property downturn, and deflationary pressures. Gains in food, clothing, and pharmaceuticals were offset by continued declines in autos, home appliances, and tobacco and alcohol sales. (Trading Economics)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- The Government of the Republic of Indonesia will conduct an auction of Government Bonds (SUN) on Tuesday, 20 January 2026, as part of its efforts to meet a portion of the 2026 State Budget (APBN) financing requirements. The SUN series to be offered in this auction include SPN01260221 (New Issuance), SPN12260423 (Reopening), SPN12270107 (Reopening), FR0109 (Reopening), FR0108 (Reopening), FR0106 (Reopening), FR0107 (Reopening), FR0102 (Reopening), and FR0105 (Reopening). The Government has set an indicative issuance target of IDR 33 trillion for this auction. BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates that total incoming bids in the upcoming auction could reach IDR80–90 trillion, with an expected bid-to-cover ratio of 2.42x–2.73x. (MoF, BRIDS Estimate)
- Indonesia’s manufacturing sector strengthened in 4Q25, remaining in expansion as indicated by the Prompt PMI Bank Indonesia at 51.86%, up from 51.66% in 3Q25. Improvements were driven by higher output, inventories, and total orders, with most subsectors expanding, led by paper products, printing and media reproduction, non-metal mining, and food and beverages. In 1Q26, manufacturing activity is expected to rise further, with PMI-BI projected at 53.17%, supported by stronger orders, production, inventories, and input delivery, particularly in footwear, furniture, metal goods, and food and beverages. (Bank Indonesia)
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