HIGHLIGHTS
- Yield of 10-year Indonesia Government Bonds is 7.058% on January 06, 2025, vs 7.019% the day before. Meanwhile, the UST 10-year yield rose to 4.62%, from 4.60% the previous day.
- Government bonds volume was IDR42.75 trillion, and it was dominated by medium term (5-15 years). It was dropped than the previous day transaction of IDR59.81 trillion. The volume lower than its YTD average of IDR58.55 trillion. While the outright transaction reached IDR8.34 trilion declined from the previous day's transaction which amount to IDR13.99 trilion.
- Meanwhile, the total volume of corporate bonds was recorded at IDR2,574 billion, dominated by short term (< 5 years). The transaction volume increased compared to the previous day's volume of IDR1,660 billion. The volume lower compared to this year's average of IDR2,656 billion. Meanwhile, outright transaction recorded at IDR2,364 billion advanced from the previous day's transaction of IDR1,657 billion.
- The Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar weakened by 0.03% to IDR16,195 from IDR16,190 while the JCI dropped -1.17% from 7,164 to 7,080. Then Brent advanced from 76.35 to 76.65 USD per barrel, while WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot price advanced from 73.13 to 73.96 USD per barrel.
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Indonesia’s fiscal deficit in 2024 stood at 2.29% of GDP, lower than the government’s mid-term outlook of 2.7% and in line with the initial 2024 APBN guideline. The lower fiscal deficit was supported by a combination of higher-than-estimated revenue and lower-than-planned spending. Revenue grew by 2.1% y-y to IDR2,842tn, while spending increased by 7.3% y-y to IDR3,350tn. The primary balance shifted to a deficit of IDR19.4tn, compared to a surplus of IDR102.6tn in 2023. (MoF)
- Coordinating Minister for Food announced that the government will extend the distribution of the social assistance (Bansos) program, providing 160,000 tons of rice per month, to six months in 2025. Previously, the program was planned to cover only the first two months of the year. (Bisnis)
- The government is scheduled to conduct an auction of Government Securities (SUN) on Tuesday, January 7, 2025. The offerings in this auction will include the following series: SPN03250409 (New Issuance), SPN12260108 (New Issuance), FR0104 (Reopening), FR0103 (Reopening), FR0106 (New Issuance), FR0107 (New Issuance), FR0102 (Reopening), and FR0105 (Reopening). The government has set a target of IDR 28 trillion for this auction, with a maximum target of IDR 42 trillion. The results of the Government Securities auction held on December 10, 2024, revealed a total incoming bid of IDR 38.98 trillion, surpassing the previous auction on November 26, 2024, which recorded IDR 29.11 trillion in bids. The government successfully allocated IDR 22 trillion in this auction, meeting its target. As a result, the bid-to-cover ratio stood at 1.77x. BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates that total incoming bids for the upcoming auction could range between IDR 35 trillion and IDR 45 trillion, with an expected bid-to-cover ratio between 1.25x and 1.61x. (Sources: DJPPR, BRIDS Estimated)
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