HIGHLIGHTS
- The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note increased by 13 basis points (bps), reaching 4.43% on November 15, 2024, up from 4.30% on November 8, 2024. In contrast, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note rose by 5 basis points, settling at 4.31% over the same period. Consequently, the yield on the 10-year Indonesian Government Bond (INDOGB) climbed 18 basis points to 6.92% on November 15, 2024, compared to 6.75% on November 8, 2024.
- The US Dollar Index gained 1.46% week-over-week, while the Indonesian Rupiah depreciated by 1.18% during the same timeframe, with the exchange rate closing at IDR 15,855 per US Dollar on November 15, 2024. In addition, Indonesia's 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) widened by 4 basis points on a weekly basis, reaching 74 basis points on November 15, 2024.
- The total volume of government bond transactions amounted to IDR 35.99 trillion, with short-term bonds (< 5 years) making up the majority. This represented a decline from the previous day's volume of IDR 38.33 trillion and was below the year-to-date (YTD) average of IDR 45.61 trillion. Outright transactions accounted for IDR 13.90 trillion, a decrease from the previous day’s total of IDR 16.78 trillion.
- In the corporate bond market, total transaction volume was recorded at IDR 761 billion, also predominantly driven by short-term (< 5 years) bonds. This marked a significant decrease from the previous day's volume of IDR 1,694 billion and was lower than the YTD average of IDR 1,897 billion. Outright transactions amounted to IDR 759 billion, down from IDR 1,660 billion on the previous day.
- The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell by -0.74%, declining to 7,161 from 7,215. In the commodities market, Brent crude oil decreased slightly from USD 73.54 to USD 73.35 per barrel, while WTI Cushing Crude oil saw a modest increase, rising from USD 68.43 to USD 68.70 per barrel.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- China's consumer showed improvement in Oct-24 with 4.8% y-y growth in retail sales, higher than 3.2% in Sep-24, following a string of stimulus rolled out by the government. Industrial output remained strong with 5.3% y-y growth. (Trading Economics)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Indonesia's trade surplus stood at USD2.47bn in Oct-24, down from USD3.26bn in September due to an expanding oil & gas deficit. Exports grew by 10.25% y-y (10.69% m-m) to USD24.41bn in Oct-24, largely due to a spike in palm oil exports. Crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives rose by 70.9% m-m and 25.3%y-y, with export volume up by 57% m-m and prices up by 23.6% y-y. Imports surged 17.49% y-y to USD21.94bn in Oct-24, the highest value since Aug-22. All import categories showed annual growth: consumer goods rose by 12.2%, raw/auxiliary materials by 18.5%, and capital goods by 16.4%. (BPS)
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