FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Astra International: 3Q25 Preview: Potential Upside Surprise from Auto (ASII.IJ Rp 5,825; BUY TP Rp 6,700)

• 3Q25 earnings may surprise on the upside, driven by +5.4% qoq volume growth and stable 52.0% mkt share, despite continued price pressure.
• A seasonal lift in 4Q25 should drive FY25 volume to ~750–770k units, keeping ASII’s share above 52.5% and earnings on track.
• Valuation remains undemanding at 7.5x FY26F P/E; TSR or HEV rollout could unlock upside to 9.5x (TP: Rp6,700).

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

CTRA (Buy, TP: Rp1,600) – 9M25 Marketing Sales: Slightly Below Ours and Company's Target

• CTRA booked marketing sales of Rp1.9tr in 3Q25 (-28%qoq, -28%yoy), bringing its 9M25 achievement to Rp7.6tr (-12%yoy), only forming 69% of our estimates and company's target of Rp11.0tr. This is slightly below than CTRA's average historical 9M contribution of 70% to FY.
• CTRA noted a more cautious consumer sentiment in 3Q25, resulting also in several product launches postponement, e.g; Shophouses@CitraGarden City JKT and Landed Houses@CitraRaya Tangerang, each previously expected to yield Rp111bn in pre-sales.
• VAT product sales overall in 3Q25 ranging around ~Rp400bn (vs. 2Q25/1Q25 at Rp500bn/1.4tr), making cummulative 9M25 VAT-exempted pre-sales at Rp2.3tr (remain moderate at ~30% to total pre-sales).
• CTRA revised down its FY25F pre-sales target by 9% from Rp11.0tr to Rp10.0tr.
• We view CTRA's overall 9M25 pre-sales as resilient, yet 3Q25 as a start of weakening middle class end user segment (Rp1-5bn) which has been driving overall Indo property market for the past 2 years. FY26F market driver could potentially be driven by product >Rp5bn, segments with higher disposable income.
• We maintain our Buy rating on CTRA with a 65% discount to RNAV-based TP of Rp1,600. We are currently reviewing our Top Picks in the Property sector. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi - BRIDS)

PWON (Buy, TP: Rp640) – 9M25 Marketing Sales: In-Line with Ours (71%), Below Company’s Target (56%)

• PWON booked Rp300bn in 3Q25 marketing sales (+10% qoq, -16% yoy), bringing 9M25 pre-sales to Rp903bn (-20% yoy). This is in line with our FY25 estimate of Rp1.27tr (71% run-rate), but below the company’s target of Rp1.6tr (56% run-rate) and its historical 9M run-rate-to-FY average of 63%.
• Quarterly take-up rates improved in key condominium projects such as Pakuwon Mall Bekasi – Tower Dolce Vita and Pakuwon Mall Surabaya – Tower Clayson, as well as in landed housing projects in Grand Pakuwon Surabaya (Rp89bn pre-sales in 3Q25 vs. Rp22bn in 2Q25). However, these gains were insufficient to offset the weakness in 1H25 and the high base of 9M24 landed house pre-sales (Rp525bn vs. Rp374bn in 9M25, -29% yoy).
• VAT-waived products contributed 71% to overall 9M25 pre-sales (vs. 75% in 1H25).
• We maintain our Buy rating on PWON based on our 58% disc. to RNAV-based TP of Rp640, as we believe the market has already priced in the weak condo market risk, but continues to overlook PWON’s stable recurring revenue growth (CAGR of 11% in FY25–FY29F) and its expanding mixed-use development pipeline. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi - BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

IMF Projects 3.2% Global Growth in 2025 The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook projects global growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, despite a small upward revision from April. Advanced economies are expected to grow around 1.5%, while emerging markets expand slightly above 4%. The US economy is forecast to grow 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, and China to slow to 4.8% and 4.2%. Inflation is expected to keep easing, but risks from trade tensions, fiscal weaknesses, and financial instability remain on the downside. (IMF)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update October 14, 2025

Cement: Sales Down 2.4% in 3Q25

The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) reported a 2.4% yoy decline in domestic cement sales to 45.67 million tons in 3Q25, amid weaker economic conditions and slower infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, exports grew strongly, with cement shipments rising 17% to 920,000 tons and clinker exports up 20%, mainly to Bangladesh, Taiwan, and Australia. However, export volumes remain too small to offset domestic weakness. ASI projects full-year sales to fall by 1.5%–1.9% and urges government stimulus to boost demand. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

ADMR Prepares Rp513bn for Coal Exploration ADMR, through subsidiaries PT Juloi Coal, PT Kalteng Coal, and PT Sumber Barito Coal, will conduct further metallurgical coal exploration worth Rp513bn. The units are completing technical studies for integrated infrastructure, with commercial operations to follow after exploration and assessments conclude. (Bisnis)   ENRG Raises Rp269.5bn Through Private Placement ENRG will issue 350 million Series B shares at Rp770 per share to PT Samuel International, raising Rp269.5bn and bringing total paid-up capital to Rp6.93tr. Earlier, the company raised Rp338bn from a similar placement to support its subsidiary Imbang Tata Alam, operator of the Malacca Strait Block. (Investor Daily)   UNTR Explores Partnership with ANTM UNTR is exploring a potential partnership with ANTM to enhance domestic gold supply, following its recent acquisition of a gold mine from J Resources. The scale and structure of the collaboration have yet to be finalized, as discussions between the two companies are still ongoing. (Bisnis)