Telco: FY26 Outlook: Sustained Mobile Momentum and Upside from Fiber Transformation (OVERWEIGHT)

·         We forecast FY26 sector revenue/ EBITDA growth of 5.8%/7.1% yoy, led by mobile amid continued price-repair execution by MNOs.

·         We see fiber asset restructuring as an additional catalyst, aimed at improving FCF, enhancing asset utilization, and unlocking value.

·         We maintain an Overweight on the sector, supported by resilient mobile momentum and selective catalysts from ongoing fiber transformation.

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MARKET NEWS

US Nonfarm Payroll Rose by 64k in Nov25

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 64k in November 2025, rebounded from a 105K drop in October.  Gains were led by health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and federal government jobs declined. The change in total payroll for August was revised down from -4,000 to -26,000, and September from +119,000 to +108,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. Broader measures showed rising long-term and involuntary part-time unemployment, with the Black unemployment rate jumping to 8.3%, pointing to softer labor conditions. (Bloomberg, BLS)

Indonesia Introduces New Formula for 2026 Provincial Minimum Wage

Indonesia has introduced a new formula for determining the 2026 Provincial Minimum Wage (UMP) through a government regulation signed by President Prabowo Subianto on December 16, 2025. The formula sets wage increases as inflation plus economic growth multiplied by an alpha coefficient of 0.5–0.9, following consultations with labor unions and in line with Constitutional Court ruling No. 168/2023. Regional Wage Councils will calculate the recommended increases, which governors must finalize by December 24, 2025, for provincial, sectoral, and municipal minimum wages. Based on 2026 budget assumptions of 2.5% inflation and 5.4% economic growth, the projected national average minimum wage increase is 5.2%–7.36%, compared with 6.5% in 2025. (Kontan)

Indonesia: MBG Program Reaches 50.4mn Beneficiaries with 81% Budget Absorption

The implementation of Indonesia’s Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program has reached 50.4mn beneficiaries to date. Meanwhile, the number of Nutrition Fulfillment Service Units (SPPG) has achieved 59% of the government’s target. Budget absorption for the program has totaled Rp59tr, equivalent to 81% of the total allocation for this year. (Kontan)

BBTN Lists New Bonds on IDX

BBTN has listed two bond issuances on the Indonesia Stock Exchange: A Rp300bn Sustainability Social Bond with a 5.30% coupon and 3-year tenor, and a Rp2tr Subordinated Bond with a 6.65% coupon and 5-year tenor. Both issues are rated idAAA and idAA by PEFINDO. Year to date, total bond and sukuk listings on the IDX have reached Rp206.85tr. (Emiten News)

BBTN Provides Up to Rp1.93tr in Credit Relief for Disaster-Affected Borrowers in Aceh and Sumatra

BBTN has rolled out special credit relief measures for consumer loan customers affected by floods and landslides in Aceh and Sumatra. The bank recorded 22,879 affected borrowers across Banda Aceh, Medan, Padang, and Pematang Siantar, with total outstanding loans of Rp1.93tr, a figure that may increase as field assessments continue. Credit relaxation is implemented gradually and adaptively based on the severity of impact: up to 6 months of payment grace for lightly affected customers, up to 9 months for moderately affected, and up to 12 months for severely affected borrowers. The restructuring policy is effective for three years from 10 December 2025 and may be extended subject to evaluation. (Kontan)

BMRI Issues Rp5tr Sustainability Bonds

BMRI has launched the first Rp5tr tranche of its Rp20tr Sustainability Bond I. The issuance consists of three series with coupons of 4.85% (2026), 5.45% (2028), and 5.95% (2030), and will be listed on the IDX on 22 December 2025. (Emiten News)

PTRO Establishes New Healthcare Subsidiary

PTRO has established a new subsidiary, PT Kinarya Medika Selaras (KIMS), as part of its long-term business diversification strategy. KIMS, 99.9% owned by PTRO, will operate in healthcare services and related professional activities, with paid-up capital of Rp1bn. (Bisnis)