FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia:  Lowering Estimates and TP on Conservative FY25 Outlook Amid Soft Consumption Trends (ACES.IJ Rp 496; BUY TP Rp 600)

• Weak consumer confidence along with global and domestic uncertainties have led to mgmt conservative FY25 guidance.
• We project FY25F net profit growth of 5.3% yoy, with lower margins due to soft SSSG and higher opex.
• We believe 34% share price decline YTD has priced in the weak outlook, and thus, maintain Buy rating but with a lower TP of Rp600.

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Siloam International Hospitals: Trimming Our FY25-26F Net Profit Est. by 8-13%, LT Story on Revenue Intensity Growth Remain Intact (SILO.IJ Rp 2,120; BUY TP Rp 3,000)

• 4Q24 results reflected impact of fewer working days, yet SILO is still on track to increase LT intensity supported by its NextGen strategy.
• Incorporating risks of weaker admissions in 1H25 impacted by multiple holidays, we trimmed our FY25/26F net profit est. by 8/13%.
• Maintain our Buy rating with a slightly lower DCF-based TP of Rp3,000. Risk could come from the impact of leverage on leased assets buyback.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Poultry (Overweight) – Post-Lebaran Price Update

• Livebird prices slumped to Rp15.8k/kg post-Lebaran—below the seasonal norm and even lower than the past two years. This year’s festive season demand was softer, with average LB prices settling at Rp19.4k, roughly in line with 2023’s Rp19.2k, but noticeably below the ~Rp22.3k average seen in 2021, 2022, and 2024.
• DOC prices held steady at around Rp4.7k/chick.
• Corn prices remained relatively stable at Rp5.1–5.2k/kg, amid the ongoing harvest season, though some areas reported mixed movements.
• SBM prices stayed below US$300/t, but in Rupiah terms have edged up to ~Rp5k/kg due to the appreciation of the USD.
• While weak festive demand weighed on LB prices, 1Q25 numbers should remain decent, supported by the strong momentum seen in 2M25. However, 2Q25 earnings could turn negative without government intervention to support purchasing power or implement culling programs.
• Last week (Apr 11), the government convened with industry players but only recommended voluntary supply reduction, instead of a mandatory nationwide culling, based on our channel checks. We expect any meaningful impact from this policy shift to materialize no sooner than mid-to-late May. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi -BRIDS)

PTBA (Buy, TP: Rp3,100) – capex plan vs. dividend outlook

PTBA indicated FY25 total capex plan of Rp7.2tr; this mainly comprises of:

• Railway capex (Tj Enim – Kramasan): Rp3.4tr
• Mining equipment: Rp2.4tr
• Maintenance capex: Rp1tr

Mgmt further indicated that 70% of the capex plan will be debt funded (~Rp5tr).

 

We estimate cash position may amount to Rp5.5-6.0tr as of 1Q25 (based on Dec24 cash of Rp4.3tr and 1Q25 est. EBITDA of Rp1.4-1.8tr). This should translate to potential cash of Rp3-3.5tr (post capex allocation) for dividend distribution from FY24 earnings (roughly 60-70% payout vs. FY23 payout of 75%).

 

Nonetheless, mgmt. indicated the possibility of maintaining last year’s 75% payout through higher debt funding for its capex plan.

 

Estimated dividend:

• @ 60% payout: Rp266 (9.6% yield)
• @ 70% payout: Rp310 (11.2% yield)
• @ 75% payout:  Rp332 (12% yield). (Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

 

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia Consumer Confidence Fell to 121.1 in Mar25

Consumer Confidence fell sharply to 121.1 in Mar25 (from 126.4), the steepest monthly drop since the Sep22 Pertalite hike and the worst Ramadhan decline since 2020. The 7-point fall in the Economic Expectation Index led the decline, with job availability seeing the largest hit. Current Income held steady at 121.3, though middle-income groups (Rp2–5mn) saw declines. Durable Goods Purchase dropped 3.5 pts to 110.2, and Job Availability fell to a three-year low at 100.3. In terms of income usage, Consumption rose to 75.3%, while the saving rate hit a record low of 13.8%, with loan installment usage rising to 10.8%. (Bank Indonesia)

 

Government Disburses Rp10.9tr in Food Aid by 1Q25

The Ministry of Finance reported that Rp10.9tr or 34.9% of the Rp43.8tr food assistance budget, was distributed as of April 10, 2025. The aid reached 18.2 million low-income families, each receiving Rp200,000 per month. The program is part of government efforts to support vulnerable communities and maintain economic stability. (Kontan)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 15, 2025

Indonesia Government Intervenes as Corn Prices Fall Amid Record Harvest

The Indonesian government is addressing the decline in farm-level prices of dried shelled corn by directing Perum Bulog to purchase the commodity at Rp5,500/kg for government reserves. For the April–May period, corn absorption is being concentrated in the regions of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), East Java, Gorontalo, South Sulawesi, and Central Java. The abundant production during the peak harvest season in Mar25 has caused corn prices at the farm level to fall below Rp5,000/kg. According to BPS data, corn production in 5M25 is projected to reach 6.83mn tons (+12.03% yoy), supported by a 10.92% increase in harvested area to 1.21mn ha. (Investor Daily)

 

Poultry: Government Acts to Stabilize Live Chicken Prices Post-Eid

The Ministry of Agriculture will regulate the production of day-old chicks (DOC) by breeding companies as a measure to stabilize live bird prices, which have dropped below production costs after Eid. This includes voluntary early culling of parent stock, coordination with feed producers to offer special prices for independent farmers and MSMEs, and setting a minimum live bird price of Rp14,000/kg in Java for chickens over 2.4 kg (will gradually be adjusted towards the government's reference purchase price). The government also urges integrated companies to increase chicken absorption and processing at certified slaughterhouses. The government will also recalculate the government reference price and prepare a program for the procurement of chicken carcasses to support the national food reserve. (Investor Daily)

 

CORPORATE

HRTA Targets 30% Production Boost in 2025

HRTA reported a sharp rise in gold bar sales due to strong public demand amid rising prices and economic uncertainty. The company expects gold bars to contribute over 80% of its revenue and plans to increase production by 30% in 2025 while securing raw material supply through partnerships with local gold miners. (Kontan)

 

INTP Plans Share Buyback Worth Up to Rp2.25tr

INTP plans to conduct a share buyback of up to Rp2.25tr, pending approval from its General Meeting of Shareholders (GMS) scheduled for May 21, 2025. According to the company’s disclosure on Monday, April 14, 2025, the buyback will span 12 months, starting from May 22, 2025, to May 21, 2026. (Bisnis)

 

ISAT Expands Beyond Telco – Adds 6 New Business Lines

ISAT is expanding beyond traditional telecommunications by launching six new digital business lines, including telco services for defense, AI programming, IoT consulting, and digital payment and advertising solutions. Backed by a feasibility study projecting an NPV of Rp4.05tr and a 30.1% ROI, the new verticals are expected to contribute Rp1.18tr in first-year revenue, boosting total revenue by 11.98% versus 2024. (IDX)

 

Comment: This move positions ISAT to scale digital revenues, enhance margins, and become a platform-based service provider — not just a network operator. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)