FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Merdeka Battery Materials: Shutting down HNMI for the Greater Good; Trimming Our Est. on Lower Output Assumptions (MBMA.IJ Rp 256; BUY TP Rp 490)

• FY24 result beat estimates as 4Q24 saw a turnaround to profitability of US$4.3mn from favorable commodity prices.
• HNMI is temporarily shut down as it is loss making at current prices. The plant will operate subject to favorable pricing and contracts.
• We lowered our FY25-27F earnings forecasts by -74%/-46%/-6% and TP to Rp490; reiterate Buy rating on upsides from growth projects.

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Merdeka Copper Gold:  Anticipating Pani Gold to Boost Earnings, but Lowering Estimates on Weaker MBMA Outlook (MDKA.IJ Rp 1,220; BUY TP Rp 2,400)

• MDKA recorded strong earnings of US$11.3mn in 4Q24 that was supported by strong Gold ASP and lower Copper cash cost.
• Pani gold’s timeline is intact, with expected commissioning by late FY25.
• We revised our FY25-27F earnings by -43%/-10%/0%, maintaining our TP at Rp2,400; reiterate Buy rating on upsides from growth projects.

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Macro Strategy: The Rattle of The Tariff Tantrum

• The “Liberation Day Tariff” triggered shockwaves across global markets, with the financial channel posing the main risk to Indonesia.
• The four key factors to monitor closely, as they directly influence investor preferences and the shift toward safe-haven assets.
• Moving faster than competitors on negotiation could secure advantages to Indonesia, particularly in contested sectors

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ANTM (Buy, TP: Rp2,000) – FY24: Above Estimate ·         4Q NP reached Rp1.4tr, +122% qoq, bringing FY24 NP to Rp3.6tr, +19% yoy, reaching 122%/132% of ours/cons estimate. ·         Meanwhile, 4Q revenue grew strongly to Rp25.9tr, +30% qoq, bringing FY24 revenue to Rp69.2tr, +69% yoy, reaching 122%/122% of ours/cons estimate. ·         There was a +64% qoq hike in opex to Rp1.3tr, which is likely attributable to higher costs incurred for its gold sales that rose 20% qoq, as well as salary payments (Rp305bn) and legal case provision (Rp85bn). ·         However, ANTM also recorded a much improved profits from associates of Rp349bn in 4Q24 (vs. 9M24: Rp340bn) from WBN, and a forex gain of Rp321bn (3Q24: -Rp428bn). Furthermore, ANTM recorded an additional Rp101bn income for KDI asset transfer to TMS. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

TINS (Buy, TP: Rp2,300) – FY24: Below Estimate

• 4Q NP declined to Rp278bn, -41.4% qoq, bringing FY24 NP to Rp1.2tr, a turnaround from previous year's -Rp450bn net loss. The result was below our estimate at 86%.
• 4Q revenue also fell to Rp2.6tr, -15% qoq, whereby its FY24 revenue grew to Rp10.8tr, +29% yoy, reaching 96% of our estimate. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Fiscal Deficit Widened to 0.43% Of GDP

Indonesia’s fiscal deficit widened to 0.43% of GDP (Rp104.2tr) in 3M25. Revenue fell 16.7% yoy, though gross tax revenue returned to positive growth in March. Meanwhile, spending declined 6.3% yoy, reflecting a high base from last year’s general election. (Kontan)

 

Trump Schedules Tariff Discussions Including 104% Tariff on Chinese Imports

Trump plans to proceed with his higher reciprocal tariff policy, targeting around 60 countries, including a 104% total tariff rate on Chinese imports following China retaliation. (Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 8, 2025

CORPORATE

ADRO Announces Rp4tr Share Buyback Plan

ADRO has allocated up to Rp4tr for a share buyback program, aiming to repurchase a maximum of 10% of the company’s issued capital. The buyback will be carried out gradually through IDX within a maximum period of 12 months following approval at the upcoming AGMS. The AGMS is scheduled for May 15, 2025, and if the share buyback agenda is approved, the repurchase will commence on May 16, 2025. (IDX, Kontan)

 

ARNA to Distribute Rp43 Dividend Per Share for 2024 and Advances Plant Expansion

ARNA has announced a dividend of Rp43 per share (yield: 6.9%) for the FY24, consistent with the previous year's distribution. The dividend will be paid on 29th Apr25, despite a 3.73% decrease in net profit. Additionally, ARNA intends to implement interim dividend payments starting this year. (Bisnis)

The company also targets completion of Plant 4D in 2025, with production expected to start in 4Q25, and plans to build Plant 4F in 2026 to boost capacity by 8 million m² annually, while postponing Plant 6 due to gas supply constraints. (Kontan)

 

FORE Launches IPO at Rp188 Per Share

FORE has started its IPO from April 8th to 10th Apr25, offering shares at Rp188 each. The company plans to issue up to 1.88bn shares, raising Rp353.44bn. The funds will be used for opening 140 new outlets (76%) and capital injection into PT Cipta Favorit Indonesia (CFI) (18%). (Emiten News)

 

GOTO Drivers Eligible for 2,000 Units of Subsidized Housing

Ministry of Housing and Settlement Areas has allocated 2,000 units of subsidized housing specifically for GoTo partner drivers. The program targets low-income individuals, with income caps set at Rp7mn for single applicants and Rp8mn for married applicants. Of the total allocation, 1,000 units are designated for 4W vehicle drivers and 1,000 for 2W drivers. The initiative is supported by BBTN, which has expressed readiness to provide mortgage financing (KPR) for eligible GoTo partner drivers. (Kontan)

 

MEDC Share Buyback Program Resumes

MEDC will resume its share buyback program on 8th Apr25, with an initial allocation of up to US$50mn, funded by the company’s internal cash reserves. This initiative aims to optimize capital allocation and create long-term value for shareholders, in compliance with OJK regulations. (Emiten News)

 

PTRO Signs Nickel Mining Agreement with INCO

PTRO has signed a 10-year mining services agreement with INCO on 8th Apr25, for the mining and transportation of nickel ore from Bahodopi Blocks 2&3, valued at approximately Rp16tr. This contract, part of PTRO's long-term strategy to enhance value, will positively impact the company's operations, financial condition, and business sustainability. (Emiten News)

 

ROTI to Distribute Rp450bn Dividend

ROTI has announced a cash dividend of Rp450bn for the FY24 or Rp79.44 per share (yield: 8.8%). The dividend will be paid on 28th Apr25, following approval at the company’s Annual General Meeting on 8th Apr25. (Bisnis)