FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Astra International: Dual Catalysts for Further Re-rating (ASII.IJ Rp 5,900; BUY TP Rp 6,700)

  • We believe the potential Total Shareholder Return (TSR) program could unlock ASII’s cash of ~Rp53tr as of 1H25 (23% of mkt cap).
  • Mass-market hybrid launch (Avanza/Xenia HEV) may add c.10-15k units/year and defend market share above 53–55%.
  • Reinstate coverage with a BUY rating. ASII shifts from a cyclical value stock to a high-yield compounder with intact industry leadership.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Consumer (Overweight) – BRIDS Roundtable: Indonesia Food & Beverages Association (GAPMMI)

  • We recently hosted a group discussion with the Chairman of Indonesian F&B Industry Association, Adhi S. Lukman, to get more insight on latest consumer trend in Indonesia. Here’s some of the key takeaways…

     

Remain optimistic with F&B industry growth

  • Given the significant share of food expenditure/capita in both urban and rural areas, he remains optimistic with F&B industry despite the current weak purchasing power has slowed down the industry’s growth. The food industry grew by 6.15% yoy in 2Q25 and expect it to reach between 5.9-6.1% in FY25F.

 

2H25 outlook

  • Many F&B players saw a slower-than-expected recovery post Eid season, with stock returns. There was some demand uplift in Jul25, but it declined again in Aug25. Some industry players have begun coordinating with modern trade for next year’s Eid stocks, planning delivery to start in Nov25. This may support some growth in 4Q25. 

 

Current consumption trends

  • There’s a shift from dining out and takeaways to home-cooked meals, with the share of ready to eat expenditure dropping from 32.9% in FY19 to 29.7% in FY24. We believe this reflects the weak consumption trend. Hence, staple food items such as frozen foods, seasonings, mineral water, instant noodles continue to perform strongly, showing double-digit growth.
  • Spending on cigarettes remains relatively stable, increasing slightly from 11.3% in FY19 to 11.6% in FY24. 

 

Relatively limited direct impact from “8+4” stimulus program to consumption

  • In line with our view in the latest report https://link.brights.id/brids/storage/41440/20250922-Consumer.pdf, the more direct impact on consumption is likely to come from the cash-for-work and food assistance program. Meanwhile, internship programs could gradually increase household income overtime. He believes direct cash assistance (BLT) is a crucial and effective measure to quickly stimulate consumption.
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MBG impact to F&B industry

  • So far, it is quite positive for frozen foods (nuggets) and seasonings players as they are already being used and sourced from industry players. For milk, there has been some progress with a buying price agreement >Rp2,000/pack. (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

 

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Money Supply Grew 7.6% yoy in Aug25

Indonesia’s money supply (M2) grew 7.6% yoy in Aug25 to Rp9,657.1tr, the fastest pace in over a year and up from 6.6% in July. Growth was driven by narrow money (M1) at 10.5% yoy and quasi money at 5.6% yoy. Supporting factors included net foreign assets (+10.7% yoy to Rp2,024.9tr), stronger credit disbursement (+7.0% yoy), and net claims on the central government (+5.0% yoy). Adjusted base money (M0) also expanded 7.3% yoy to Rp1,961.3tr. (Bank Indonesia)

 

Indonesia Passes 2026 State Budget with Rp689.1tr Deficit (2.68% of GDP)

Indonesia’s Parliament has passed the 2026 State Budget Law, setting a deficit of Rp689.1tr (2.68% of GDP) with revenues at Rp3,153.6tr and spending at Rp3,842.7tr. Macroeconomic assumptions include 5.4% growth, 2.5% inflation, Rp16,500/USD exchange rate, and 6.9% 10Y bond yield. The budget allocates major funds to eight priority agendas under President Prabowo, including food security (Rp164.7tr), energy (Rp402.4tr), free nutritious meals (Rp335tr), education (Rp769.1tr), healthcare (Rp244tr), plus social protection of Rp508.2tr. (MoF, DPR RI)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update September 23, 2025

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Indonesian Government to Distribute 52,400 Tons of Corn to Stabilize Prices

According to the National Food Agency, the government’s corn price intervention at the farmer level through market operations under the Supply and Price Stabilization (SPHP) program will begin this week or no later than next week, as part of efforts to stabilize chicken meat and egg prices. The SPHP will be carried out by distributing 52,400 tons of corn to 2,109 farmers. (Investor Daily)

 

CORPORATE

ASII Strengthens Healthcare Ecosystem with Rp8.6tr Investment

ASII has poured Rp8.6tr into healthcare, spanning hospitals and telemedicine. The group raised its stake in HEAL to 20% and increased ownership in Halodoc to 31.34% through a Rp900bn deal. Earlier, ASII, via PT Astra Sehat Nusantara, acquired Heartology Cardiovascular Hospital for Rp645bn. Starting with a US$35mn investment in Halodoc during the pandemic, Astra now eyes further expansion in hospital and health-related acquisitions to solidify its healthcare ecosystem. (Bisnis)

 

EMTK Increases Stake in SCMA to 66.89%

EMTK has continued boosting its ownership in SCMA from August 20 to September 22, 2025, acquiring 342.41mn shares worth Rp104.9bn. This purchase raised EMTK’s stake to 66.89%, totaling 49.48bn shares. (Investor Daily)

 

SIDO Continues Buyback with Rp56bn Allocation

SIDO will proceed with its share buyback program from 23 September to 22 December 2025, using the remaining Rp56bn allocation. The company targets repurchasing around 103.7 million shares (0.35% of total), citing undervaluation of its stock, which has fallen 7.62% YtD to Rp545. With Rp244bn already spent from the Rp300bn plan, SIDO affirms ample cash flow to fund operations while capping buyback prices at Rp760 per share. (Kontan)

 

WIKA Books Rp5.24tr New Contracts by Aug25

WIKA secured Rp5.24tr in new contracts up to Aug25, dominated by construction-supporting industries (49.8%), followed by infrastructure and buildings (33.8%). Key projects include irrigation rehabilitation in Jambi, groundwater irrigation in South Sumatra, and irrigation development near Soekarno-Hatta Airport. The company also joined small-scale reservoir projects in Yogyakarta, highlighting its focus on sustainable, green, and strategic national projects. (Kontan)