FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK
IDEA OF THE DAY
Bumi Resource Minerals: In-Line 1Q26 Earnings Despite Pit Pushback; Recovery Hinges on CPM Ramp-Ups (BRMS.IJ Rp785; BUY TP Rp1,100
- 1Q26 earnings were broadly in-line, with net profit of US$17.5mn (+21.3% y-y), supported by higher ASP despite lower CPM volumes
- expects CPM recovery by early Jun26, driven by grade normalization and Oct26 CIL plant upgrade.
- Maintain Buy with higher TP of Rp1,100, underpinned by elevated gold prices, CPM underground monetization from 3Q27F.
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RESEARCH COMMENTARY
Coal Sector (Overweight) – ESDM Minister comment on possible PSC scheme implementation
Media article quoted ESDM Minister Bahlil as saying that govt is reviewing the potential application of an upstream oil & gas PSC scheme to the mineral and coal mining sector. Our check sees that this is still preliminary, with key details still unknown, including whether this would replace or add to the existing royalty system.
For the coal sector, we see three possible scenarios:
- Additional profit-sharing
Govt adds incremental profit sharing on top of current royalties, with another possible variation would be to apply this profit split during high-price or high-margin periods. Impact would be negative, but current IUPK holders (main concessions of AADI, BUMI, INDY) may be least affected (since the IUPK scheme already have the additional profit split).
- Gross split scheme
Govt split to be calculated before costs and therefore, earnings impact would be more negative. Under this scenario, higher-cost miners may be more exposed, though there is talk of another version where the split will be determined based on each mines’ profitability.
- Cost recovery scheme
In our view, this would be the most complex and perhaps least likely, given coal mining economics are more visible than upstream oil & gas and less exploration activities in the sector in recent times.
Overall, while earnings impact will only be known when the details are out, we expect the news to weigh on the sector's near-term sentiment, despite the positive coal price momentum. (Erindra Krisnawan, CFA & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)
MARKET NEWS
MACROECONOMY
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Indonesia’s Economy Expands 5.61% yoy in 1Q26 · Indonesia’s GDP grew 5.61% yoy in 1Q26, above consensus (5.40%) and our forecast (5.36%), partly supported by a low base in 1Q25 (4.87%), alongside strong seasonal demand from religious holiday period (Lebaran and Lunar New Year). · Household consumption rose 5.52% yoy (highest since 2Q22), driven by holiday spending, with Restaurants & Hotels (7.38%) and Transport & Communication (6.91%) leading. GFCF moderated to 5.96%, exports almost steady (0.9%), while imports picked up to 7.18%. · Government spending jumped 21.81% yoy, contributing 1.26pp to growth, in line with fiscal spending growth of 31.4% as of Mar26, supported by gov't spending smoothing, including monthly subsidy and compensation disbursement, as well as seasonal factors such as THR payments. · Sectoral growth was led by Accommodation & Food Services benefited from the expansion of the Free Meal Program (MBG), while Other Services (tourism-related) and Transport & Warehousing were supported by increased mobility during the holiday period. (Statistic Indonesia, BRIDS Economic Research Team) |
SECTOR
Commodity Price Daily Update May 5 , 2026
KUR Disbursement Reaches Rp96tr as of Early May 2026
The Indonesian government continues to optimize Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) distribution for MSMEs, with disbursement reaching Rp96tr as of 3 May 2026, equivalent to around 30% of the FY26 target of Rp320tr. For reference, total KUR disbursement in 2025 reached Rp270tr. (Kontan)
CORPORATE
BRIS Approves Rp1.51tr Dividend
BRIS has approved a cash dividend of ~Rp1.51tr, representing 20% payout of its net profit, at its AGMS. This translates to Rp32.81 per share (1.8% yield), with the dividend amount up 44% yoy. (IDX)
GOTO Acknowledges Danantara’s Share Ownership
GoTo responded to reports regarding government ownership in the company through Danantara. Corporate Secretary R.A. Koesoemohadiani stated that, based on the company’s understanding, Danantara has acquired GoTo shares through open market transactions, representing less than 1% of the company’s total issued shares. (Kontan)
ISAT Distributes Rp3.58tr Dividend
ISAT has approved a total dividend of Rp3.58tr, equivalent to Rp111 per share (5.3% yield), at its AGMS. This reflects a ~65% payout ratio, in line with the company’s policy of distributing up to 70% of earnings. Management reiterated its commitment to dividend consistency, with potential for higher payouts going forward alongside earnings growth. (Bisnis)
PGEO Sets FY26 Targets with Moderate Growth Outlook
PGEO targets revenue of US$445–455mn and net profit of US$150–160mn for FY26, alongside EBITDA of US$340–350mn. On the operational front, the company aims for power generation of 5,255 GWh, implying 3.14% yoy growth from 2025 levels. To support its expansion plans, PGEO has allocated capex of US$209mn for 2026. (Bisnis)
PZZA to Distribute Rp5bn Dividend
PZZA will distribute a total dividend of Rp5bn (Rp1.66/share, yield: 0.8%) from FY25 earnings, with cum date set on 8 May 2026 and payment scheduled for 3 June 2026. The payout is based on FY25 net profit of Rp24.75bn, implying a dividend yield of ~0.84% based on the latest share price. (Investor Daily)
