FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Telco: Progressing Toward Price Repair; Re-initiate Coverage with Overweight Rating (OVERWEIGHT)

  • We expect gradual ARPU recovery to start in 2H25, supported by implementation of starter pack price floor and product simplification.
  • We believe ISAT is best positioned to lead ARPU growth on network gains and pricing upside; TLKM may continue to see drag from legacy.
  • Despite our modest 3.7% FY25F EPS growth forecast, we see that price improvement prospect is underappreciated. Reinitiate with OW.

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s FX reserves held steady at US$152.5bn in May25

Indonesia’s FX reserves held steady at US$152.5bn in May25, supported by tax, service, and O&G receipts amid external debt payments and BI’s Rupiah stabilization. (Bank Indonesia)

 

The World Bank Cut Its 2025 Global Growth Forecast to 2.3%

The World Bank cut its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3% (–0.4ppt) due to rising tariffs and uncertainty, marking the weakest non-recessionary pace since 2008. Growth projections were lowered for nearly 70% of economies, including the U.S. (1.4%, –0.9ppt), EU (0.7%), and Japan (0.7%). Global trade is expected to slow to 1.8%, and inflation to remain elevated at 2.9%. A further 10ppt tariff hike could shave another 0.5ppt off growth. Developing countries face long-term setbacks, while China’s forecast remains at 4.5%. (Reuters)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update June 10, 2025

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Automotive: Indonesian Car Sales Drop 15.1% yoy in May25

Indonesia’s wholesale car sales in May25 dropped 15.1% yoy to 60,613 units, from 71,391 units in May24, according to Gaikindo. However, sales rose 18.4% from April’s 51,205 units, which had been the lowest monthly figure this year due to the short Ramadan-Lebaran period. Gaikindo attributed the yoy decline to weak consumer purchasing power and sluggish economic growth. Toyota led May sales with 10,995 units (+30.6% mom), followed by Daihatsu at 11,166 units (+25.7% mom). (Bloomberg)

 

CORPORATE

BBCA Prepares Rp435bn to Repay 2018 Subordinated Bonds

BBCA has allocated Rp435bn to repay the principal and coupon of its Subordinated Bonds Phase I Series A issued in 2018, maturing on July 5, 2025. This reflects the bank’s commitment to maintaining investor trust in its debt instruments. (Emiten News)

 

BBTN Acquires Nearly All Shares of BVIS

BBTN has officially acquired 99.9984% of BVIS shares from BVIC and VICO on June 5, 2025. The transaction, formalized through notarial deeds, marks a strategic move to strengthen BBTN’s sharia banking expansion. (Emiten News)

 

ERAA Distributes Rp300bn Dividend for FY24

ERAA will distribute a dividend of Rp19 per share (yield: 3.8%) for FY24, totaling around Rp299.88bn or 29.04% of its 2024 net profit, as approved in the annual general meeting held on June 10, 2025. (Bisnis)

 

Grab to Issue US$1.25bn Convertible Bonds

Grab plans to issue US$1.25bn in convertible bonds maturing on Jun15, 2030. The funds will partly be used to bolster reserves amid acquisition plans targeting rival GoTo Group. The bonds will carry an annual coupon of 0% to 0.5%, paid semiannually, and feature a conversion premium of approximately 35%–40% over Grab’s latest closing share price. (Kontan)

 

MAPI Confirms Asset Purchase for Daily Supermarket Expansion

MAPI clarified that its subsidiary, PT Swalayan Sukses Abadi (SSA), did not acquire GS Supermarket Indonesia. Instead, SSA signed a master agreement on May 30, 2025, to purchase inventory, assets, and lease rights for select GS Supermarket locations. These assets will support SSA’s existing Daily Supermarket operations under the MAPI. The move is commercially driven and not a corporate acquisition. (Kontan)

 

MYOR to Distribute Rp1.22tr Dividend, Launches Rp1tr Buyback

MYOR will distribute Rp1.22tr in dividends, equivalent to Rp55 per share (yield: 2.6%), representing 40% of its Rp3tr net profit in 2024. The dividend payout is scheduled for July 10, 2025. The company also approved a Rp1tr share buyback program to run from June 11, 2025, to June 11, 2026. (Emiten News)

 

TBIG to Distribute Rp1.09tr in Dividends

TBIG will distribute Rp1.09tr in cash dividends for the 2024 fiscal year, representing 80.01% of its net profit. Of the total, Rp560.1bn was paid as an interim dividend on December 27, 2024, while the remaining Rp529.3bn will be paid as a final dividend on July 10, 2025. Shareholders will receive a final dividend of Rp23.73 per share. (InvestorDaily)

 

TBIG Sets Capex at Rp4tr for 2025

TBIG has allocated Rp3–4tr in capex this year to support the expansion of its tower and fiber optic businesses. The majority of the capex will be used to build new towers based on client demand. TBIG plans to focus on organic growth through new tower construction rather than asset acquisitions. (Kontan)

 

UNTR Strengthens Renewable Energy Portfolio

UNTR announced an affiliate transaction involving its subsidiaries, PT Supreme Energy Sriwijaya (SES) and PT Energia Prima Nusantara (EPN). According to mgmt, EPN has injected additional capital into SES by acquiring 464.5mn new shares to maintain its ownership stake. As a result, EPN now holds 1.26bn shares in SES, equivalent to Rp125.85bn. EPN is 51% owned by UNTR, while SES is an indirect subsidiary with 49.6% ownership. (Emiten News)