FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Surya Semesta Internusa: Subang Prospects Intact, Yet Positive Outlook Largely Priced-In. Downgrade Rating to Hold (SSIA.IJ Rp 2.740; HOLD TP Rp 2,475)

• Barito’s stake addition has narrowed SSIA’s discount to RNAV though thus far the group remains a passive investor with minimal synergy talk.
• Despite continued accumulation by Djarum and Subang’s EV ecosystem appeal, current price appears to have priced in most of the LT story.
• We raise TP to Rp2,475 (50% RNAV discount) but downgrade to Hold, as current price offers limited upside, while monetization risk remains.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Poultry (Overweight) – 4th Week of July 2025 Price Update

• Livebird (LB) prices posted a mild decline to Rp18.0k/kg in the fourth week of Jul25, down 0.4% wow.
• LB prices remained resilient throughout Suro with the final week of Suro held firm at Rp18.1k/kg, or 2% above the pre-Suro average of Rp17.7k/kg. This brought the full-month Suro average to Rp18.3k/kg, with a low of Rp18.1k/kg—both higher than pre-Suro levels. Such a price trend during Suro has only occurred once before since 2017, in 2021.
• DOC prices were stable at around Rp4.7k/chick.
• Corn prices saw a sharp uptick, climbing to Rp5.6k/kg and lifting the weekly average by 4.1% wow to Rp5.6k/kg in the fourth week of Jul25.
• SBM prices stayed soft at ~US$270/t, with the Jul25 average at US$269/t (down 6% mom, -19% yoy).
• Despite the slight dip in LB prices this week, we expect prices to remain around Rp18k/kg in the near term—underpinned by continued government intervention and a more balanced supply-demand dynamic. Meanwhile, rising local corn prices could pressure feed costs, but soft SBM prices should continue to support feed margins. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

PWON (Buy, TP: Rp640) – 1H25 Results: Headline Net Profit In-Line with Our and Consensus Estimates

• PWON recorded a net profit of Rp834bn (+62% yoy, +177% qoq), bringing its 1H25 achievements to Rp1.1tr, forming 50%/48% of our/consensus FY25F estimates of Rp2.3tr/Rp2.4tr.
• Overall 1H25 Top-line grew +3% yoy, pillared by stable recurring revenue growth of 10% yoy, offsetting weakness in property development revenue of -16% yoy (1H25 revenue contribution split: 80%:20% vs. 1H24’s 75%:25%).
• Operating margin improved by 240bps in 2Q25, coupled with higher other income portion, supports strong 2Q25 net margin.
• Stripping out all non-core items (forex gain/losses, mutual fund gain/losses), however, core profit slightly misses our estimates at 43% run-rate.
• Maintain Buy with our 58% disc. to RNAV-based TP of Rp640. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Investment Realization Rose 11.5% yoy Indonesia’s investment realization rose 11.5% yoy to Rp477.7tr in 2Q25, lifting 1H25 total investment to Rp942.9tr (49.5% of the annual target). However, foreign direct investment (FDI) declined 6.9% yoy to Rp202.2tr in Q2 amid intensifying global competition for capital, according to Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani. (MoI)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update July 29, 2025

BP Tapera Disburses Rp17tr in Housing Subsidies

The Public Housing Savings Management Agency (BP Tapera) recorded a total housing subsidy disbursement of Rp17tr as of July 28, 2025. According to BP Tapera, the funds were allocated to finance 137,015 subsidized housing units through 38 partner banks, involving 6,896 property developers across the country. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

HMSP Sales Near 5-Year Low, Smoke-Free Products Gain Ground

HMSP reported cigarette sales of 39.3bn sticks in 1H25, nearing a 5-year low. Despite the volume drop, market share rose 0.8% to 31%, while the overall industry declined 4.3%. HMSP and Philip Morris International continue shifting focus to smoke-free products, with a 39.11% YoY sales increase and expanded investment in their Karawang facility. (Bisnis)

 

Medco E&P Begins Early Production from Terubuk WHP-M in South Natuna Sea Block B

Medco E&P announced the start of first oil and gas production from the Terubuk Well Head Platform (WHP) M in South Natuna Sea Block B on July 25, 2025, three months ahead of schedule. The project increases Terubuk’s production capacity to 6,600 barrels of oil per day and 60 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) of gas. (Investor Daily)

 

PGEO: 2Q25/ 1H25 Headline - in-line core profit; EBITDA slightly below

• 2Q25 core profit: +5.8% qoq/ -2.2% yoy, supported by a slightly higher revenue, finance income and profit from JV; 1H25 core profit: -7% yoy, forming 50% of BRIDS/ Cons. FY25F. 
• 2Q25 revenue and EBITDA rose 1.8% and 0.8% qoq; 1H25 revenue formed 48% of BRIDS/ Cons FY25F, slightly below likely due the delay in Lumut Balai unit 2 commencement.
• Flattish 1H25 EBITDA yoy; 48-49% of BRIDS/ Cons FY25F.