FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ADMR (Not Rated) - 1Q25 Earnings Below on Larger-than-Expected ASP Discount

• ADMR posted 1Q25 net profit of US$65mn (-43% yoy/ -37% qoq), forming 25%/ 22% of BRIDS/ Cons. FY25F.  However, we deem the results to be below expectations, with Revenue and EBITDA coming in at 20%/ 19% of BRIDS/ Cons. FY25F.
• While 1Q25 sales volume of 1.3Mt (+22% yoy/ -30% qoq) was broadly in line with our expectation, ASP (US$155/t) came in 12% below our forecast, as it reflected higher discount from benchmark price due to the larger proportion of sales mix from higher sulphur products.
• Read-through for ADRO (earnings due out 30th Apr):

ADMR’s 1Q25 weak operating earnings could weigh on ADRO’s earnings given that ADMR accounts for 52% of ADRO’s revenue, based on our forecast. SIS (mining contracting, 48% of revenue) may see risk of production shortfall (similar to UNTR’s Pama) as our check with the company also indicated higher-than-normal rainfall in 1Q25. (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

BIRD (Not Rated) – 1Q25 Results

1Q25 Financial Highlight

• Revenue: +16.2% yoy/-5.4% qoq
• Gross profit: 23.4% yoy/-5.0% qoq, with GPM at 32.8% (vs 30.9% in 1Q24)
• Net profit: 42.8% yoy/11.1% qoq

Summary:

• BIRD’s 1Q25 revenue rose 16.2% yoy, driven by taxi (+14%) and non-taxi (+23%) growth. Taxi utilization improved to 80.5% (1Q24: 78.7%) on better fleet use and fixed-price adoption (38% of March app bookings). Meanwhile, non-taxi revenue contribution increased to 30% (FY24: 29%), supported by rising demand and a new BRT contract.
• GPM rose to 32.8% (1Q24: 30.9%) on improved cost efficiency, supported by lower fuel and maintenance costs from route optimization and newer vehicles. Opex grew by 11% yoy, improved as a percentage of revenue to 19.9% (1Q24: 20.7%), reflecting continued operational efficiency.
• Capex reported doubled to Rp520bn (vs Rp223bn in 1Q24), translating into a 7% yoy increase in fleet size to over 24,500 units (vs Dec24: 24.200).
• In Jan25, BIRD integrated OVO into MyBluebird, expanding cashless options and supporting its strategy for payment flexibility. (Richard Jerry, CFA & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

BMRI (Buy, TP: Rp5,900) – 1Q25 Results: In Line & Concall KTA

1Q25 Insights:

• NP grew 4% yoy: BMRI posted net profit of Rp13.2tr in 1Q25 (-4% qoq, +4% yoy), broadly in line with our and consensus’ FY25F (23%).
• Positive PPOP growth partly offset by higher provisions: PPOP reached Rp22.0tr in 1Q25 (+4% qoq, +4% yoy), helping absorb the higher provisions (+63% qoq, +8% yoy).
• NIM remained under pressure: NIM declined to 4.6% (-32bps qoq, -20bps yoy) due to falling loan yields while CoF remained elevated. The lower yield was driven by corporate loans—particularly USD loans tied to benchmark rates—partly offset by higher yields in the commercial segment.
• Lower CASA ratio: CASA ratio dropped to 73% as TD growth outpaced CASA growth, contributing to higher CoF.
• CoC remained low: Despite higher provisions, CoC stayed low at 0.9%, supported by 17% yoy loan growth and improved net NPL formation in bank-only numbers (from 1.57% in 1Q24 to 0.78% in 1Q25).
• Elevated opex amid business shift: Opex rose 16% yoy as the bank shifted focus from wholesale in 2024 to retail value chains in 2025. The bank is targeting a CIR of max 40% in FY25 (vs. 40.8% in 1Q25).
• Lower LDR amid flat loan growth: Loans were flattish qoq, while deposits grew 3% qoq, resulting in a lower LDR of 93.5% (vs. 98.0% in 4Q24).
• Corporate and commercial continue driving loan growth: 16.5% yoy loan growth was driven by corporate (+20.0%) and commercial (+21.1%), while consumer and SME grew by only 6.4% and 8.7% yoy, respectively.
• Steady NPL yoy: NPL rose 5bps qoq due to seasonality but held steady yoy at 1.2%, as rising NPLs in corporate and micro/payroll segments were offset by a decline in the commercial segment.
• FY25 guidance maintained: The bank maintained its FY25 guidance: 10–12% loan growth (vs. 16.5% in 1Q25), 5.0–5.2% NIM (vs. 4.8% in 1Q25), and 1.0–1.2% CoC (vs. 0.88% in 1Q25). Management expects CoC to normalize (no reversal), loan growth to follow deposit growth (target LDR of 90–95%), and NIM to remain tight in 1H25.
• LT ROE and payout ratio: The bank maintained its LT ROE target of 20% and sustainable dividend payout ratio of 60–70%.
• No involvement in the government’s new initiative yet: The bank is ready to support the government’s program if aligned with its strategic and portfolio priorities.

Summary:

• We believe BMRI’s 1Q25 results were Neutral, with positive PPOP growth supported by robust loan growth, amid rising opex and continued NIM pressure. While CoC remained manageable, the pressure on CASA and elevated CoF may continue to weigh on NIM in the near term. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BNGA (Not Rated) – 1Q25 Results and Concall KTA

1Q25 Insights: 

• Net Profit: BNGA reported a net profit of Rp1.8tr (+7% yoy) in 1Q25, accounting for 26% of the consensus estimate (in line), supported by a significantly lower CoC of 0.6% (vs. 1Q24: 0.9%). 
• NIM Remained Under Pressure: BNGA’s NIM stayed under pressure at 3.8% in 1Q25 (flat qoq, -29bps yoy), as CoF remains elevated (+14bps yoy). However, management expects loan yields to increase as the bank shifts its portfolio toward higher-yielding segments (mid-segment SMEs, retail auto, and unsecured loans). 
• Loan Growth: Loans grew 9% yoy (+1% qoq), driven by corporate loans (+1.3% qoq, +13.7% yoy) and consumer loans (+1.5% qoq, +5.5% yoy). Retail auto loans saw strong growth at +27.9% yoy (+6.1% qoq). 
• Customer Deposits and CASA: Customer deposits rose 2% yoy (-2% qoq). CASA increased 7% yoy (-0.4% qoq), while TD declined 5.8% yoy (-6.5% qoq), resulting in a CASA ratio of 67.4% (+140bps qoq, +286bps yoy) in 1Q25. 
• LDR: Bank-only LDR rose to 89% in 1Q25 as loan growth outpaced deposit growth, reflecting the bank’s strategy to prioritize CASA expansion in order to reduce CoF. Comfortable LDR ceiling for BNGA is at 90%.
• CoC Declined but Expected to Normalize by Year-End: CoC improved to 0.6% in 1Q25 from 0.9% in 1Q24, mainly due to a significant provision reversal from one medium watchlist account. However, management expects CoC to normalize to ~1% for FY25, as such reversals are not expected to recur. 
• NPL and LaR: NPL stood at 1.9% (+9bps qoq, -30bps yoy), while LaR remained stable at 8.6%, supported by an improvement in restructured loans. 
• Treasury and Market Income Performance: Treasury and market income increased 47% qoq and 53% yoy, driven by market volatility and entry timing. According to management, the sustainability of this income depends on future rate cuts and the timing of central bank easing. 

 

FY25 Guidance: 

• NIM: 3.9–4.2% 
• Loan Growth: 5–7% yoy 
• CoC: Within 1.0% 
• CIR: Below 45% 
• DPR: Up to 60%

 

Summary:

• BNGA posted solid 1Q25 results with net profit in line with consensus expectation, supported by lower CoC. While NIM remains under pressure due to rising funding costs, management is optimistic about improving loan yield from a shift toward higher-yielding loan segments. Asset quality improved, and treasury income was strong, though its sustainability depends on future rate movements. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BUKA (BUY, TP: Rp165) – In line Net Profit; Core Still Weak, But Gradual EBITDA Recovery in Sight

• BUKA reported 1Q25 net profit of Rp111bn, broadly in line (23.6%/22.9% of ours/cons FY25E), supported by strong financial income, while core operations profits remained soft.
• Revenue reached Rp1.46tr (+37.3%qoq, +24.6%yoy), with topline growth driven solely by the gaming vertical; O2O and retail segments saw yoy consolidation.
• Gross profit rose to Rp131bn (+11.9%qoq), though margin compressed (-200bps qoq, -900bps yoy), signaling weaker operational leverage.
• Contribution margin nearly doubled to Rp80bn (+95.0%qoq), while adj. G&A rose 14%qoq — likely still allowing for a narrower adjusted EBITDA loss on qoq basis, pending official figures and potential one-offs.
• Bottom line was aided by financial income, with no drag from equity investments in the quarter. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

DMAS (BUY, TP: Rp190) – DMAS 1Q25 Earnings: In line with Our and Consensus Estimates

• DMAS reported a net profit of Rp355bn for 1Q25 (-3% yoy), relatively in line with our/cons. FY25F estimates at Rp1.49tr/Rp1.44tr (24%/25%).
• Overall FY24 revenue declined by 8% yoy, driven by a decline in its industrial land sales from Rp511bn in 1Q24 to Rp473bn in 1Q25 (-7% yoy).
• Industrial land sales gross margin, however, improved from 67% to 71%, keeping operating profit margin intact despite heightened opex to sales. We believe this is also due to the higher ASP sold by DMAS (+9% yoy in 1Q25) to its data center dominated customers.
• Latest Handover in 1Q25: ST Telemedia Global - Data Centers (Rp211bn), Kawanishi Warehouse - Cold Chain (Rp89bn)
• The recently announced dividend payout of 105% from FY24 book impacted positively to the share price. However, we view this as a signal that the company's landbank replenishment capex might be done in longer stages. Estimated industrial landbank post 1Q25 pre-sales: 157ha, upcoming inquiries 80ha. We are currently reviewing our FY25F estimates and NAV valuation (Last TP: Rp190 based on 72% disc. to RNAV). (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

ESSA (Buy, TP: Ro750): 1Q Result, Above Us but Below Cons

• ESSA recorded NP of USD8mn (-30% qoq/-21% yoy), 27%/17% of our est, above ours but below cons.
• Revenue reached USD 70m (-2% qoq/6% yoy, 27%/24% of our estimate/cons, above/inline), as ammonia revenue declined by 0.5% qoq/5% yoy and LPG revenue declined by 13% qoq/9% yoy.
• Ammonia production declined by 11% yoy due to upstream maintenance, while LPG production declined 6% yoy, implying lower LPG plant utilization. ASP of ammonia/LPG declined by 1%/0.4% yoy.
• GPM declined by 540 bps qoq/480 bps yoy, while EBITDAM declined by 680 bps/650 bps due to rising opex especially on salary cost.
• Overall, it is a decent result despite lower than last year. We have BUY rating on ESSA with TP of Rp 750. (Richard Jerry, CFA & Sabela Nur Amalina)

GOTO (BUY, TP: Rp110) - Inline 1Q25 Earnings: Flat Topline but Solid Margin Gains in ODS & GTF

GOTO booked a 1Q25 net loss of Rp283bn, broadly in line with our and consensus expectations. The quarter saw flattish topline and GTV performance, but significant adj. EBITDA margin improvement for ODS and Fintech GTF.

• Net revenue remained steady at Rp4.23tr (-0.0%qoq, +37.4%yoy), supported by a sequentially stable take rate of 2.93%. ODS declined slightly by -2.7%qoq but still posted strong +37.4%yoy growth. Fintech (GTF) continued to grow robustly (+4.2%qoq, +89.6%yoy), driven by deeper loan penetration in its GTF GTV. E-commerce fee is trending well (+16%qoq, +56.9%yoy).
• EBITDA improved to Rp393bn (+20.6%qoq), with an EBITDA margin of 9.3% — up 160bps qoq and 1200bps yoy — reflecting strong efficiency gains across in ODS and GTF.

Other Highlights:

• Management remains cautious amid macroeconomic headwinds but reaffirms FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance of Rp1.4–1.6tr. The company has already achieved 23.0% of our Rp1.7tr FY25 forecast in 1Q25.
• Fintech (GTF) remains the standout segment, reaching 20.6mn MTUs (+30%yoy). Outstanding consumer loan principal surged 108%yoy, supported by increasing penetration and prudent risk management to maintain loan book quality. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

GRAB vs GOTO – 1Q25 Takeaways & Outlook

GOTO booked +17% YoY GTV growth, slightly ahead of GRAB’s +16.3%, despite steeper QoQ softness in delivery. Fintech GTV at GOTO surged +57% YoY, showing clear traction. GRAB’s GTV was flatter QoQ but steady overall, supported by resilient mobility.Monetization: GRAB still commands a clear lead in take rates (13.3% delivery, 15.6% mobility) vs. GOTO’s blended 2.93%, reflecting stronger unit economics — helped by premium exposure (e.g., Singapore).

• Margins & Profitability: GRAB still commands a clear lead in take rates (13.3% delivery, 15.6% mobility) vs. GOTO’s blended 2.93%, reflecting stronger unit economics — helped by premium exposure (e.g., Singapore).
• Margins & Profitability: GRAB leads in group EBITDA margin (13.7%) and profitability ($10mn net profit), while GOTO is still in loss but narrowing rapidly. GOTO fintech segment however is already EBITDA positive, outperforming GRAB’s fintech which remains loss-making. GOTO’s e-commerce also contributed Rp190bn EBITDA with ~88% margin, a segment GRAB does not operate.
• FY25 Outlook: Sector backdrop remains healthy with mid-teens ODS GTV growth, and strong fintech expansion by GOTO. Moreover, GRAB raised its FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance from $455mn to $470mn, while keeping revenue target unchanged — signaling margin upside in mobility and delivery.

Our comment: We believe the consolidation of ODS services between Gojek and GRAB should be an option amid strong push by Shopeefood gaining significant market share in 2024. Nonetheless both Gojek and GRAB continue to innovate building their edge as standalone players (Niko Margaronis – BRIDS)

HMSP (Hold, TP: Rp730) 1Q25 Result: Improved Gross Margin Offset by Soft Revenue and Higher Opex

• HMSP reported 1.1% yoy decline in 1Q25 revenue. SKT, which contributed 34% to total revenue, recorded 8% yoy growth. Export and smoke-free products also posted robust revenue growth of 172% yoy and 39% yoy, respectively, although their combined contribution remained small at 3.5% (vs. 1.8% in 1Q24).
• HMSP recorded 1Q25 volume growth of 0.6% yoy, implying 3% yoy decline in revenue per stick.
• Revenue growth in SKT, export, and smoke-free categories supported a higher 1Q25 gross margin. However, high opex —particularly in A&P, salaries, and management services—led to 14.6% yoy decline in 1Q25 net profit.
• 1Q25 net profit was broadly in line with our FY25 forecast (25% of FY25F) and the consensus estimate (24%). (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

INCO (Hold, TP: Rp3,900) – Core Profit Below Estimate

• INCO reported 1Q25 core profit of US$2mn, -80% qoq, as sales dropped -11% qoq from an unplanned maintenance on one of its furnace. Furthermore, ASP dropped by -5% qoq following a sluggish matte price throughout 1Q25.
• INCO recorded a revenue of US$207mn, -14.6% qoq, -10% yoy, which was slightly below ours/cons estimate at 22%/22%. Note that it has started selling 80kt of Saprolite ore out of its 290kt RKAB. Though, we found that its ore are not sold at a premium at US$31.7/wmt
• INCO recognized a US$16.6mn gain in fair value of derivative assets pertaining to its call option in KNI & HNI where it raised nickel price assumption between US$16-19k/ton (From: US$17.1-17.6k/ton). (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

KLBF (Buy, TP: Rp1,800) – 1Q25 Result: Above Expectations on Higher GPM and Lower Opex

• KLBF reported 1Q25 revenue growth of 5.8% yoy and 5.4% qoq, supported by strong performances in Prescription (+13% yoy) and Consumer Health (+9% yoy) segments.
• Export sales (contributing 6% to revenue) posted robust growth of 41% yoy, also driven by Prescription and Consumer Health.
• Gross margin improved to 41.6% in 1Q25 from 39.7% in 1Q24. We believe the Consumer Health segment benefited from the Ramadan festive season, resulting in a higher gross margin of 66% (1Q24: 64%). Nutrition’s GPM also increased to 54% (1Q24: 51%).
• 1Q25 A&P expenses rose 24% yoy to 8.0% of revenue (1Q24: 6.8%). However, cost efficiencies—particularly in employee expenses—kept opex manageable. This supported 1Q25 net profit growth of 12.4% yoy.
• The 1Q25 net profit accounted for 32% of our FY25F and 31% of consensus, indicating an above-expectation result.
• Our View: We believe top-line growth will remain challenging in the coming quarters. Therefore, cost control will be crucial for KLBF to achieve its FY25 revenue and net profit growth target of 8–10% yoy. (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

LPPF (Not Rated) – LPPF 1Q25 Earnings Call Summary

1Q25 Financial Highlight:

• Gross sales: 24.6% yoy/64.4% qoq to Rp4.6tr (vs 1Q24: +28.6%).
• GPM: 35.4% (vs 1Q24: 34.9%), driven by improved freshness, higher AUR, and basket size.
• Net income: 97.3% yoy/213.2% qoq to Rp643bn (vs 1Q24: Rp326bn).

Summary:

• PPF posted slower gross sales growth in 1Q25 (24.6% yoy) compared to 1Q24 (+28.6% yoy), impacted by weak consumer spending, lower savings, and illegal imports from China that reduced fashion demand. The 5% decline in Lebaran homecoming travel—driven by layoffs, THR payment issues, and more selective bazaar shoppers—also weighed on performance.
• 1Q25 SSSG was 28.6% (vs. 34.6% in 1Q24), while Lebaran SSSG fell -4.3%, with ex-Java stood at -6.1% due to a higher store presence in Christmas-celebrating areas and increased competition.
• LPPF will focus on improving merchandise while exploring new categories and brands. The SUKO GO sub-brand launched in Jan25, with category expansion into Children and Sleepwear in 4Q25, and broader rollout of ZES Men’s and Women’s collections across more outlets.
• The company approved an 81.7% dividend payout ratio with Rp300/share (yield: 17.4%). (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

 

MTDL (Buy, TP: Rp800) – 1Q25 In-Line Results, Strong Contribution from Distribution

• MTDL reported 1Q25 earnings of Rp154bn and revenue of Rp5.5tr, both in line with our forecasts (18.9% and 20.0% of our FY25 estimates, respectively). This aligns with typical seasonality, as the first quarter generally sees lower performance.
• IT distribution revenue reached Rp4.2tr, reflecting a solid 15.7% yoy growth, primarily driven by the smartphone distribution segment, especially with the new brand introduced.
• S&C revenue reached Rp1.5tr, growing 8.3% yoy, with growth constrained by the seasonal nature of corporate budget allocations, which are typically lower in the first quarter.
• The increased share from IT distribution impacted margin, with operating profit margin contracted by 240bps qoq to 4.6%.
• Given the 1Q25 seasonalities we believe MTDL is trending well inline with its guidance. Looking ahead, the company has set a 10% yoy growth target for both top-line and bottom-line for FY25. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

NCKL (Buy, TP: Rp1,500) – Below Estimate due to Higher Minority Interest

• 1Q25 NP slightly grew to Rp1.65tr, +7.6% qoq, +65.5% yoy, which was below ours/cons estimate at 18%/22%. Meanwhile, Revenue grew to Rp7.1tr, +8% qoq, +18% yoy, which was in line with our/cons estimate at 26%/25%
• NCKL recorded a stronger profit from JVs of Rp638bn, +58% qoq, +131% yoy, due to initial contribution from HPL and KPS, on top of contributions from HPL.
• Furthermore, it also managed to cut down opex to Rp334bn, -40% qoq. However, non-controlling interests grew significantly to Rp618bn, +272% qoq, which ultimately lowered its net profits. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

TOWR (BUY, TP: 870) - Rights Issue of Potentially Rp8.85tr – What’s New in the Latest Disclosure (29 Apr vs. Mar)

The 29 Apr disclosure confirms TOWR’s 15bn-share Rights Issue is officially approved (RUPSLB 23 Apr). Key updates:

• SAI (52.46%) will not subscribe to its entitlement.
• DIA (8.33%) – the main investment vehicle of the Hartono Brothers – will fully subscribe and act as standby buyer.
• Dilution capped at 22.72%, with DIA’s stake potentially rising to 20.52% or 29.2%, depending on two scenarios of RI uptake.
• Key dates: Record date 3 Jul, trading window 7–11 Jul, refunds by 17 Jul.
• Since end-Dec, DIA has steadily raised its stake from 5.59% to 8.33%, including a 1bn share block purchase last week.
• The price of the RI is not determined yet. Max proceeds of Rp8.85tn based on current price to support debt repayment and working capital.

 

UNTR (BUY, TP: Rp31,000) - 1Q25 Earnings MISS, Pressured by Pama Production Shortfall

UNTR posted 1Q25 net profit drop of -30% yoy/ -19% qoq to Rp3.19tr, forming 14%/ 18% of our/ consensus FY25F – BELOW.

Despite inline 1Q25 revenue of Rp34.3tr (+6% yoy/ -2% qoq; 24/26% of our/ cons. FY25F) earnings miss was mainly driven by a combination of:

1. Production miss at Pama (mining contracting): coal and OB volume fell -12% yoy (15-20% below company’s target) due to higher-than-expected rainfall during the quarter. In turn, this compressed margin by an estimated 4-5ppt yoy as production cost rose by an estimated 2% yoy.
2. Lower-than-expected margin from own coal mining – while ASP drop of -11% yoy, is inline with our expectation, production cost was above our expectation, likely due to higher fuel cost and production miss. 
3. Impairment of asset (RKEF smelter) in NIC (20%-owned) of Rp520bn, which offset the impact of higher nickel production and gold price.

Outlook: UNTR aims to accelerate Pama’s coal production starting 2Q25, but this remains contingent on better weather conditions (it indicated that rainfall in Apr25 has continued to exceed normal levels). (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Investment Ministry Reported 1Q25 Investment Realization at Rp465.2tr

Indonesia’s Investment Ministry (BKPM) reported 1Q25 investment realization at Rp465.2tr, or 24.4% of the 2025 target (Rp1,905.6tr). This marks a 15.9% increase from 4Q24 and 2.7% yoy. Foreign investment contributed Rp230.4tr (49.3%), while domestic investment reached Rp234.8tr (50.5%). Investment in Java totaled Rp229.3tr (49.3%) and outside Java Rp235.9tr (50.7%). The projects created 594,104 jobs, up 8.5% yoy. (CNBC Indonesia)

 

US Consumer Confidence Fell to 86 in Apr25

US consumer confidence fell to 86 in Apr-25, a nearly five-year low, as tariff concerns dampened economic and job outlooks. Job openings dropped to 7.19 million, the lowest since 2020, as employers paused hiring amid policy uncertainty, raising recession risks. (Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 29, 2025

CORPORATE

DATA Expands into ISP Sector with New Subsidiary

PT Remala Abadi Tbk (DATA) has established a new subsidiary, PT Clara Dinamika Abadi (PT CDA), with a 72.5% ownership stake, making it a majority-controlled entity. PT CDA will operate as an Internet Service Provider, supporting DATA’s strategic diversification into the telecommunications sector. The Rp725mn capital investment is internally funded. (IDX)

 

GOTO Has Carried Out Rp1.6tr Share Buyback

GOTO has completed a share buyback of 25.9bn shares valued at Rp1.6tr by March 31, 2025. The buyback is part of a US$200mn repurchase program approved by shareholders in June 2024. (BloombergTechnoz)

 

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