FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Oil and Gas: Oil Price Scenarios: Pricing in Disruptions (OVERWEIGHT)

  • We see ~8–11mb/d of oil supply at risk, with Brent potentially rising to US$105–135/ bbl under our disruption scenarios.
  • SoH (~20% global flows) and the resulting tanker disruption amplify supply loss via higher freight and rerouting delays
  • Despite emerging flows into SoH, we continue to see Moderate disruption as our base case and retain tactical (3M) OW.

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Indofood CBP: 4Q25 Rebound Lifts FY26F Outlook, but Impact from Geopolitical Tension Remains a Risk (ICBP.IJ Rp7,325; BUY TP Rp10,500)

  • Management guided a constructive FY26 outlook following strong 4Q25 momentum and post-Eid demand trends.
  • Middle East tensions so far have had minimal impact on Pinehill, with operations and supply chains stable. The situation is closely monitored. 
  • We adjusted FY26/27F net profit estimates by +0.1/-3.6% and reiterate Buy rating, with a lower TP of Rp10,500.

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MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 7, 2026

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Aismoli Raises 2026 EV Motorcycle Sales Growth Target Up to 100,000 Units

The Indonesian Electric Motorcycle Industry Association (Aismoli) has revised its 2026 sales growth target following rising global oil prices. The association previously set a 10% growth target, equivalent to around 71,000 units for electric motorcycles and bicycles. The target has now been raised to 20–30% growth, with sales potentially reaching up to 100,000 units. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

CNMA to Distribute Rp980bn FY25 Dividend

CNMA will distribute a cash dividend of Rp980bn for FY25, equivalent to Rp12 per share. The dividend includes an interim dividend of Rp5 per share paid on 28 November 2025, with the remaining Rp7 per share scheduled for payment on 28 April 2026. (Bisnis)

 

PTPP Records 32.96% yoy Growth in New Contracts to Rp3.87tr as of Feb26

PTPP recorded new contract growth of 32.96% yoy to Rp3.87tr as of Feb26. Based on funding sources, government projects dominated with a 73% share, followed by SOE projects at 18% and private sector at 9%. By business line, the building segment contributed the largest portion at 33%, followed by roads and bridges at 30%, while the smelter and mining sector accounted for 18% of total new contracts. (Bisnis)

 

ROTI Approves Rp450bn Cash Dividend

ROTI has approved a cash dividend of Rp450bn at its Annual and Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders, equivalent to Rp80.04 per share (yield: 10.6%). (Bisnis)