FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Bank Neo Commerce: FY25 Earnings: Below; Higher CoC Alongside Deteriorating Asset Quality Metric(BBYB.IJ Rp282; BUY TP Rp400)

• BBYB booked NP of Rp102bn in 4Q25 (-46% qoq) bringing its FY25 NP to Rp566bn (vs Rp20bn in FY24), below ours and consensus.
• CoC rose to 19.8% in 4Q25 alongside higher write-off ratio, increasing NPL and LaR ratio, and lower NPL and LaR coverages.
• Despite soft results, we upgrade our rating to Buy (from Hold) as we maintain our TP at Rp400 but share price has declined by 28%.

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Buana Lintas Lautan: Riding Tanker Rate Upside, Unlocking Offshore Growth Opportunities; Initiate with Buy Rating (BULL.IJ Rp334; BUY TP Rp550)

• We believe BULL is well positioned to capture the rising tanker rates, driven by dislocation in energy trade and geopolitical tension
• We forecast net profit to surge to US$96mn (~5x from FY24) in FY26F, driven by elevated tanker rates and LNG fleet ramp-up
• We initiate with Buy rating and TP of Rp550 amid strong outlook and potential upside in offshore business (FSRU, FPSO/FSO)

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ACES (Buy, TP: Rp550) - FY25 Results: Weak FY25 Performance, Bottom Line Below Est

• ACES reported +0.7% yoy rev growth in FY25, came relatively in line to our & cons est. Meanwhile net profit dropped 25% yoy given the weak topline and higher opex (+10.5% yoy) particularly on salary & employee allowances and A&P spending – bottom line was below our est at 93.8%.
• In 4Q25, rev was +11.6% qoq and -2.1% yoy. By product categories, toys contributed the highest growth of +6% yoy (contributed ~4% to total sales), while home improvement was rather flattish (+0.3% yoy) and lifestyles posted -ve growth of 5.4% yoy. Hence, GPM was lower to 47% in 4Q25, the lowest since 2Q19.
• On the op level, total opex increased +12.2% yoy and +8.4% qoq in 4Q25 driven by higher salary & employee allowances and rental costs. Thus, op margin stood at 8%, 80bps lower qoq and 740bps lower yoy. Net profit was -40.9% yoy and -0.9% qoq. (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

ANTM (Buy, TP: Rp4,800) - FY25 Results: Below Estimates, Weak Delivery

FY25 Performance:

• Earnings below expectations: ANTM posted Rp7.2tn net profit (+98% y-y), reaching 92% of our estimates and 94% of consensus, albeit still delivering record-high earnings.
• Revenue growth driven by gold & nickel ore: Sales rose +22% y-y to Rp84.6tn, slightly below our estimate (~91% of FY25), supported by gold (+15% y-y) and nickel ore (+137% y-y), offsetting weaker ferronickel.
• Margin expansion supported by mix: Gross profit surged +111% y-y, driven by higher contribution from nickel ore (higher-margin) despite rising royalty and procurement costs.
• EBITDA growth remains strong: EBITDA increased +118% y-y to Rp9.3tn, indicating stronger operating performance, although partly influenced by favorable product mix.
• Earnings partly supported by one-off: Bottom line was lifted by non-recurring income (~Rp786bn) include SDA divestment.
• Core profit still strong: Core profit grew +111% y-y to Rp6.3tn, indicating solid underlying growth.

 

4Q25 Performance:

• Weak earnings exit: Net profit came at Rp1.2tn (-3% q-q; -15% y-y), reflecting weaker operating performance.
• Sequential revenue decline: Revenue fell -3% q-q, dragged by gold sales (-15% q-q) despite stronger nickel ore and bauxite.
• Opex spike pressured margins: G&A surged +120% q-q, driving EBIT down -71% q-q, indicating project-related / non-recurring cost escalation.
• Sharp EBITDA contraction: EBITDA dropped -64% q-q to Rp720bn, with margin compressing to 5.7%.
• Limited support from other income: Non-operating gains were insufficient to offset operational weakness.
• Core earnings deteriorated: Core profit declined to Rp499bn (-55% y-y), reflecting weaker earnings quality.

 

Summary:

Wee see FY25 delivered strong growth but missed expectations and was partly supported by one-offs. But we think 4Q25 is a weak exit, driven by gold sales softness and a sharp opex spike

CTRA (TP: Under Review) – FY25 Results: Above Consensus Estimates

FY25 Performance:

• Net profit exceeded expectations: CTRA posted strong FY25 net profit of Rp2.7tr (+25.2% yoy), reaching 112% of consensus FY25F estimates, supported by solid revenue growth of 12.8% yoy.
• Revenue growth driven by property sales: The 12.8% yoy increase in revenue was mainly fueled by a 16.3% rise in residential and shophouse sales, along with an increase in office sales (+38.2% yoy).
• Broad-based margin expansion: Profitability improved across the board, with net margin rising to 21.1% (+210bps yoy), supported by higher GPM and OPM of 47.5% and 30.0%, respectively.

 

4Q25 Performance:

• Strong quarterly earnings rebound: In 4Q25, CTRA recorded net profit of Rp1.0tr (+169.2% qoq, +22.6% yoy), driven by robust revenue growth (+68.3% qoq, +3.8% yoy), partly reflecting seasonal factors.
• Sequential revenue surge: Revenue jumped 68.3% qoq, mainly supported by an 85% qoq increase in residential and shophouse sales. On a yoy basis, growth was modest at 3.8%, primarily driven by a 4.7% (Rp146bn) increase in the same segment.
• Margin expansion on seasonality: Net margin rose to 24.6% (+924bps qoq, +378bps yoy), in line with a strong qoq improvement in OPM to 32.7% (+645bps qoq, -8bps yoy), supported by typical 4Q seasonality. (Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

MAIN (Buy, TP: Rp1,500) - 4Q25 Results: Above

• Record high NP: MAIN posted a record-high quarterly net profit of Rp258bn in 4Q25 (+137% qoq, +100% yoy), bringing FY25 net profit to Rp394bn (-19% yoy from FY24’s high base), above our estimate (144%).
• Revenue expansion across segments: Gross revenue reached a quarterly high of Rp4.2tr (+8% qoq, +11% yoy) in 4Q25, driven by the feed and livebird segments.
• QoQ margin improvement except feed: Gross operating margin expanded to 8.3% (+416bps qoq, +300bps yoy), benefiting from higher poultry prices during the quarter, partly offset by higher opex (+36% qoq, +19% yoy).
• Feed segment margin flat qoq: Despite higher revenues, feed OPM remained flat qoq at 4.7%, as higher raw material costs were likely passed through via higher ASP.
• DOC segment revenue and margin expanded: Driven by higher ASP, DOC revenue rose to Rp648bn (+17% qoq, +11% yoy), while OPM increased significantly to 25.7% in 4Q25.
• Broiler segment supported by higher prices: Supported by strong LB prices, following a 3.1% margin in 3Q25, the broiler segment’s OPM further expanded to 6.8% in 4Q25.
• Processed food losses narrowed: The processed food segment still recorded operating losses, but these narrowed by nearly half to Rp9bn in 4Q25.
• Our Take: MAIN delivered a strong 4Q25 performance, supported by solid revenue growth and margin expansion across most business segments except feed. We currently maintain a Buy rating with a TP of Rp1,500. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

UNTR (Buy, TP: Rp33,000) - Feb26 operational: weak Komatsu sales

• Feb26 Komatsu sales fell -40% yoy/ -58% mom to 435unit, with weakness across the segments. 2M26 sales fell to 869 units (-11% yoy), though still accounting for 20% of our FY25F.
• Mgmt indicated that Feb26 sales mainly reflected weaker demand from mining sector, as miners and contractors await the certainty in RKAB, and lower demand from construction and forestry sector.
• Our take: Our bullish thesis for UNTR is predicated on upside in coal price and production volume (for Pama) but this hinges on RKAB revision. With latest news indicating coal RKAB remaining capped at 600Mt, equipment demand may remain soft until there is clarity on upward RKAB revision. (Erindra Krisnawan, CFA & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia Launches Policy Package to Strengthen Economic Resilience

Indonesia launches policy package to strengthen resilience amid global uncertainty. The government introduced eight measures on work culture reform, energy efficiency, and fiscal refocusing. Key highlight is flexible work (WFH) for civil servants, with similar guidance for private sector, to improve productivity and reduce mobility. On energy, the plan includes B50 biodiesel to cut reliance on fossil fuels. Fiscal policy will prioritize spending, with potential refocusing of IDR121–130tn toward more productive sectors. The package takes effect on April 1, with evaluation in two months, aiming to support growth and stability. (CMEA)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Mar 31, 2026

Indonesian Government Yet to Confirm Subsidized Fuel Limits, 50-Liter Cap Proposal Emerges

The head of BPH Migas stated that any policy on restricting subsidized fuel purchases, including Pertalite and diesel, remains under government authority and has not been officially confirmed. While a draft regulation suggests limiting purchases to 50 liters per day for four-wheeled vehicles starting 1 April 2026, authorities emphasized that no restrictions have been implemented yet and the public should await formal announcement. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

BREN Ends Buyback Early as Market Stabilizes

BREN accelerated the end of its share buyback program to April 1, 2026 (from May 3), citing improved market conditions and stable share price. The move suggests the buyback objective has been achieved, though the company has yet to disclose total shares repurchased or funds used. (Emiten News)

 

UNTR Halts Buyback Early After Spending Rp1.06tr

UNTR decided to end its share buyback earlier than planned, effective 31 March 2026, despite utilizing only Rp1.056tr to repurchase 36.4 million shares, leaving around Rp943.65bn from the initial Rp2tr allocation unused. (Emiten News)

 

UNVR Global Freezes Hiring for 3 Months Amid Middle East Tensions

UNVR has temporarily halted global hiring across all roles for at least three months in response to macroeconomic pressures driven by escalating Middle East conflict. The move is part of ongoing cost-efficiency efforts, following a €800mn savings program initiated in 2024, of which €670mn had been realized by end-2025. (Reuters)