FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Macro Strategy: 2026: Reassessing the Investment Cycle

• Manufacturing-led FDI now anchors investment growth, lifting GFCF and widening regional benefit with Ex-Java areas benefiting the most.
• Despite rising manufacturing-led FDI, investment momentum is soft. Capex cycle, utilisation, and minimum wages are key factors to watch.
• Wage growth tracks investment in productive regions, highlighting the need to shift UMR rules toward productivity-based, region-specific.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

GOTO - Buy (TP: Rp100) - Patrick Walujo Resigns as CEO of GOTO

GOTO announces resignation of Board of Directors and Board of Commissioners

• Patrick Walujo has resigned as CEO, and Hans Patuwo (currently Chief Operating Officer of ODS) will be nominated as his replacement.
• Ade Mulyana has resigned from his role as Director of Public Affairs and Communications.
• Pablo Malay and Winato Kartono have also stepped down from their Commissioner positions, with Andre Soelistyo and Santoso Kartono to be nominated as their successors.
• Approval of these resignations and the appointment of the nominated individuals will be conducted at the EGMS on 17 December 2025.

 

Market Talk:

• The resignation of Patrick Walujo was viewed as paving the way for smoother negotiations on a potential GOTO-Grab merger.
• Previously, Bloomberg reported that, SoftBank, Provident Capital Partners, and Peak XV were among the shareholders reportedly pushing for Patrick Walujo’s resignation.

 

On shareholding structure:

• SVF GT Subco Pte. Ltd. (a SoftBank entity) holds a 7.6% economic stake in GOTO, while its voting rights stand at 3.4% after adjusting for multivote shareholders (MVS).
• PT Saham Anak Bangsa remains the largest voting-right holder, with 30.4% voting power after adjusting for MVS. (Kafi Ananta & Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight) – 3rd Week of November 2025 Price Update

• Livebird price continued its uptrend, reaching Rp23k/kg, with the weekly average rising to Rp22.4k/kg (+11% wow).
• No official update, though channel checks suggest levels remained steady at around Rp6.0k/chick.
• Local corn prices stayed steady at Rp6.8k/kg, with the weekly average also recorded at Rp6.8k/kg (flat wow).
• SBM price reached its YTD high of US$328/t before retreating to US$322/t, but the average remains high at US$320/t in Nov25 (+13% mom; +10% yoy).
• While costs remained under pressure from rising SBM price and elevated local corn prices, we believe integrators’ margin should remain robust given the sharp increase in LB price. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

US: The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.05% The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.05% as dovish comments from key Fed officials boosted expectations of a December rate cut. Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams signaled support for easing amid labor-market softening. Yet new reporting shows deepening division inside the Fed, with policymakers nearly split ahead of the December 10 meeting while Chair Powell remains silent. Markets now price an 82.9% probability of a cut to 350–375 bps, though PMIs showing firmer inflation still give hawks some footing. (Trading Economics, Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Nov 24, 2025

Automotive: Gaikindo Lowers Sales Target to 800,000 Units

Gaikindo has revised its 2025 car sales outlook from 850,000 to around 800,000 units, citing softer demand earlier in the year. However, the association notes improving momentum, with rising orders and strong interest at GJAW 2025. Despite the downgrade, Gaikindo remains positive on long-term growth given Indonesia’s low vehicle ownership ratio. (Kontan)

 

Coffee Prices Diverge as Vietnam Weather Improves and U.S. Tariff Policy Shifts

Arabica futures in New York rose about 1.9%, with the December 2025 contract reaching 407.45 cents/lb, while robusta prices in London fell 1% amid improving harvest conditions in Vietnam. Trump’s removal of the 40% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee had earlier pushed arabica to a seven-week low, though low ICE inventories continue to support prices. U.S. coffee imports from Brazil have dropped 52% since the tariff began, tightening domestic supply. (Bisnis)

 

CORPORATE

BBCA to Distribute 2025 Interim Dividend of Rp55/Share

BBCA will distribute an interim cash dividend for the 2025 fiscal year this December at Rp55 per share (yield: 0.6%). This interim dividend represents a 10% increase from last year’s interim payout. Dividend payment is scheduled for 22 December 2025. (Kontan)

 

BRMS Secures US$625mn Syndicated Loan for Gold–Copper Projects

BRMS has secured a syndicated loan totaling US$625mn to accelerate the development of its gold and copper projects. The loan syndicate includes Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited, Bank Permata, Bank Mega, and BCA. Of the facility, US$425mn is allocated to PT Citra Palu Minerals (CPM) to complete the underground gold mine by 3Q27, while US$200mn will fund drilling and exploration by PT Gorontalo Minerals at the Gorontalo copper site. (IDX Channel)

 

DRMA Targets Rp6.5tr Revenue in 2026

DRMA aims to reach Rp6.5tr in revenue in 2026, up from its 2025 target of Rp6tr. As of 9M25, the company booked Rp4.39tr in revenue (+9.2% yoy) and net profit of Rp419.87bn (+1.89% yoy), with profitability expected to stay above 10%. Growth in 2026 will be supported by new automotive players entering Indonesia and the ongoing acquisition of PT Mah Sing Indonesia, which will expand DRMA’s 4W component portfolio. (Bisnis)