FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

United Tractors: FY26: A Transition Year; Estimates and TP Cut Post 1Q26 Miss, Shareholder Return Intact (UNTR.IJ Rp29,100; BUY TP Rp30,600)

• UNTR 1Q26 earnings miss reflects one-offs but also a weak underlying operating result due to RKAB and Martabe uncertainty.
• Mgmt guidance cut implies slower recovery, with pressure from RKAB uncertainty, lower Pama OB, and delayed Martabe ramp-up.
• Maintain Buy with lower TP of Rp30.6k, as we cut FY26-28F est. by 4.9%-44.1%; intact FCF to support dividend payout and buybacks.

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Macro Strategy: Awaiting Relief

• Divided FOMC reinforces our prolonged Fed hold view, keeping USD firm and limiting near-term support for EM FX, including IDR.
• Improving revenue supports S&P rating buffers, but oil shocks, global yields, and IDR pressure keep downside risks elevated.
• Prolonged supply shocks raise the risk of further non-subsidized fuel adjustments, with wider inflation and policy implications.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Poultry (Overweight) – 5th Week of April 2026 Price Update

• Livebird prices rebounded to Rp20.6k/kg, lifting the weekly average by 4.3% wow to Rp20.4k/kg. On a monthly basis, the Apr26 average declined 17% mom to Rp19.7k/kg, reflecting post-Lebaran normalization.
• Based on JPFA’s monthly survey, DOC prices normalized to Rp5.5k/chick (–13% mom) in Apr26.
• Local corn prices continued to edge higher to Rp6.6k/kg, pushing the weekly average up 1.5% wow to Rp6.6k/kg. For Apr26, the monthly average stood at Rp6.4k/kg (+0.6% mom).
• SBM prices eased slightly to US$321/t from the mid-Apr peak of US$334/t, with the Apr26 average at US$325/t (+3% mom; +11% yoy).
• The rebound in LB prices points to early signs of stabilization following the recent downtrend, with prices moving back above the estimated breakeven level. While rising corn prices may continue to exert cost pressure, the moderation in SBM provides partial relief. A sustained recovery in LB prices should help ease margin pressure, although profitability remains sensitive to further movements in both LB prices and feed input costs. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Inflation Eased to 2.42% yoy in Apr26 Indonesia’s inflation eased to 2.42% yoy in April 2026 (from 3.48%), the lowest since August 2025 and within the target range, driven by softer food (3.06% vs 3.34%) and administered prices. Core inflation also edged down to 2.44% (from 2.52%), indicating contained underlying pressure. Volatile food inflation slowed to 3.37% (from 4.24%). On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.13% (vs 0.41% in March). Some categories saw higher prices, including transport (1.61%) and restaurants (1.93%). (Statistics Indonesia)   Indonesia Recorded a US$3.32bn Trade Surplus in Mar26 Indonesia recorded a US$3.32bn trade surplus in March 2026, narrowing from US$4.33bn in March 2025 as exports declined while imports rose modestly. Exports fell 3.1% yoy to US$22.53bn, dragged by oil and gas (-11.84%) and weaker non-oil shipments (-2.52%), especially to the US (-12.83%) and EU (-17.63%), though exports to China grew 16.22%. Imports increased 1.51% yoy to US$19.21bn, led by capital goods (~5%). In Q1 2026, the trade surplus reached US$5.55bn, supported by resilient commodity and manufacturing exports. (Statistics Indonesia)   Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI Fell to 49.1 in Apr26 Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in April 2026 from 50.1, signaling the first contraction in factory activity in nine months amid rising costs and supply disruptions linked to the Middle East war. Output declined at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while employment and purchasing activity weakened. Input costs surged to a four-year high, prompting the sharpest increase in selling prices since 2013. New orders rose slightly due to advance buying, while business confidence dropped to a five-month low. (S&P Global)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update May 4 , 2026

Indonesian Government Raises Coal Benchmark Price (HBA) in Early May26

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) increased the Coal Benchmark Price (HBA) for the first half of May 2026 across all calorific segments. The 6,322 kcal/kg GAR coal price rose to US$106.57/ton (vs. US$103.43/ton in late April), while 5,300 kcal/kg GAR increased to US$79.56/ton (vs. US$77.71/ton). Lower-grade coal also saw gains, with 4,100 kcal/kg GAR at US$55.66/ton (vs. US$52.84/ton) and 3,400 kcal/kg GAR at US$38.76/ton (vs. US$38.30/ton), indicating a broad-based uptick in coal prices (Kontan).

 

CORPORATE

BSDE 1Q26 Marketing Sales at Rp2.54tr

BSDE posted 1Q26 marketing sales of Rp2.54tr (+5% yoy), reaching 25% of its Rp10tr FY26 target, supported by resilient demand led by the residential segment (49%), followed by commercial (37%). BSD City remained the main contributor (~71%), with strong sales from key projects, while management remains optimistic on achieving full-year targets amid stable demand and supportive property incentives. (Kontan)

 

PANI 1Q26 Marketing Sales Records 112% Yoy

PANI posted 1Q26 marketing sales of Rp987bn (+112% yoy), driven by strong demand for premium residential and commercial products in PIK2. The performance reflects resilient demand and supports the company’s 2026 outlook, backed by ongoing infrastructure and ecosystem development. (Bisnis)