FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Macro Strategy: Beyond The Rebound

·         Temporary oil relief faded quickly, but Indonesia’s upper-tier fuel hike should generate only modest inflation pressure.

·         Stronger data and supply driven inflation keep the Fed sidelined, with easing deferred but hikes still unlikely.

·         The next phase of risk assessment will hinge on ratings resilience and confidence in market reform progress.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ACES (Buy, TP Rp550) - 3M26 SSSG Shows Solid Idul Fitri Demand

·         AZKO reported indicative sales of Rp896bn in Mar26 (+8.9% yoy / +33.9% mom), bringing 3M26 sales to Rp2.3tr (+8.8% yoy), equivalent to 25.2% of our FY26F estimate.

·         Cumulative SSSG reached +4.3% in 3M26 (vs 3M25: 2.2%), primarily driven by Jakarta (+7.8%) and Java ex-Jakarta (+5.7%), while ex-Java showed a slight improvement to +1.0%.

·         The company indicated stronger purchasing power during Idul Fitri (D-7 to D+7 of Lebaran), reflected in a 5.9% yoy increase in conversion rates and a 2.3% yoy growth in basket size.

·         In April, AZKO rolled out promotional highlights, including STORA and selected baby products, alongside a 5% cashback via online apps. The company also opened a new 1,720 sqm store in Java ex Jakarta (Pasuruan) on mid-Apr26. (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight) – 3rd Week of April 2026 Price Update

·         Livebird prices softened slightly to Rp19.6k/kg toward the end of the week, with the weekly average also at Rp19.6k/kg (–1.5% wow).

·         Local corn prices remained stable at Rp6.3k/kg, with the weekly average holding steady at the same level since early Mar26.

·         SBM prices edged higher to US$332/t, bringing the Apr26 MTD average to US$324/t (+2% mom; +11% yoy).

·         LB prices continue to moderate, but the post-Lebaran correction appears relatively contained, with prices still at a favorable level, suggesting overall market conditions remain healthy. While SBM prices have trended higher, stable corn prices should help keep feed cost pressures manageable. With LB breakeven estimated at around Rp19.5k/kg, integrators are still able to capture margins from feed and DOC while maintaining LB at near breakeven levels. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

China Keeps Lending Rates Unchanged

China’s central bank kept lending rates unchanged for the 11th straight month, holding the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and 5-year at 3.5%, as policymakers balance resilient growth and easing deflation against rising external risks from the Middle East conflict. Q1 2026 GDP grew 5%, at the top of the official target range, reducing urgency for further easing. With inflation picking up and global uncertainty rising, authorities signaled a “supportive” but cautious stance, adopting a wait-and-see approach while prioritizing currency stability and monitoring external shocks. (CNBC, PBoC)

Indonesia: Non-Subsidized LPG Prices Raised Effective 18 Apr26

Non-subsidized LPG prices were raised for the first time since November 2023, with 5.5 kg cylinders up by Rp17,000 and 12 kg by Rp36,000 effective April 18, 2026, reflecting higher global energy prices and rupiah weakness. In Java–Bali, prices rose to Rp107,000 (5.5 kg) and Rp228,000 (12 kg). The government ensured subsidized 3 kg LPG prices remain unchanged and supply stable. The adjustment aims to maintain supply sustainability while encouraging higher-income households to shift to non-subsidized LPG, improving subsidy targeting. (CNBC Indonesia)