FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Bank Jago: 3Q25 Earnings Miss on CoF Pressure; Signs of Improvement from Sep25 Onward (ARTO.IJ Rp2,360; BUY TP Rp3,100)

  • ARTO booked NP of Rp72bn in 3Q25 (+8% qoq, +101% yoy), pressured by higher CoF, bringing 9M25 below est. at Rp199bn (+132% yoy).
  • ARTO’s CoF rose 35bps qoq to 4.5% on tightened liquidity but CoF improved 5bps in Sep25 and continuing in MTD Oct25.
  • We maintain our Buy rating but lowered our FY25-27F est. to account for higher CoF, resulting in a lower TP of Rp3,100.

To see the full version of this report, please click here

 

Bumi Resource Minerals: On track Project Progress; Valuation Upside from Gold Price (BRMS.IJ Rp930; BUY TP Rp1,080)

  • CPM project progress is on track: tunneling at 2nd stage, CIL #1 upgrade to 2,000tpd (from 500tpd), 4Q27 production target intact.
  • We raise our FY25/26/27F EPS by 12%/79%/96% on higher gold price assumptions of US$3,500/4,100/4,400/oz.
  • Maintain Buy rating, but raise our SOTP-based TP to Rp1,080 on higher SOTP valuation; underground mining progress shall be key catalysts.

To see the full version of this report, please click here

 

Bank Syariah Indonesia: 3Q25 Earnings Miss: Robust fee-based income but Offset by Lower NIM and Higher Opex (BRIS.IJ Rp2,600; BUY TP Rp2,900)

  • CPM project progress is on track: tunneling at 2nd stage, CIL #1 upgrade to 2,000tpd (from 500tpd), 4Q27 production target intact.
  • We raise our FY25/26/27F EPS by 12%/79%/96% on higher gold price assumptions of US$3,500/4,100/4,400/oz.
  • Maintain Buy rating, but raise our SOTP-based TP to Rp1,080 on higher SOTP valuation; underground mining progress shall be key catalysts.

To see the full version of this report, please click here

 

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

GOTO (Buy, TP: Rp100) – Adjusted EBITDA Beat Guidance at 81%: FY25 Guidance Raised

  • GOTO recorded 9M25 Adj. EBITDA of Rp1,336bn, achieving 81% of its full-year guidance, prompting management to raise FY25 guidance to Rp1.8-1.9tr (from Rp1.4-1.6tr).
  • Fintech remained the key growth driver, with Adj. EBITDA increasing +54.5% qoq to Rp136bn in 3Q25; while ODS booked a modest growth of +2.4% qoq to Rp336bn.
  • Outstanding loan expanded strongly to Rp7.6tr (+15.7% qoq, +77.3% yoy), supported by higher user engagement as MTUs reached 24.2mn (+8% qoq)
  • GOTO Core GTV rose +15.9% qoq, +47.5% yoy, mainly driven by strong Fintech GTV growth of +15.9% qoq; whereas ODS GTV remained under pressure (+2.3% qoq, +0.8% yoy) due to intense competition in the mass-market segment and a softer macro backdrop.
  • Management guided that 3Q25 marks the bottom for ODS GTV growth, expecting a sequential recovery from 4Q25 onwards, which has already shown positive momentum in October figures. (Kafi Ananta & Erindra Krisnawan, CFA – BRIDS)

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ISAT (Buy, TP: Rp2,600) – Earnings & EBITDA below our/cons. estimates; Mobile revenue up +4.2% qoq

  • ISAT posted 9M25 revenue of Rp41,162bn (+1.6% yoy), with 3Q25 revenue reaching Rp14,052bn (+3.8% qoq, +1.6% yoy).
  • The mobile segment showed encouraging recovery, with net cellular revenue up +4.2% qoq/ +1.5% yoy to Rp11,808bn. However, total revenue achievement remains below both our and cons. estimates at 72.0%/ 72.5% of FY25 target.
  • EBITDA margin declined by 140bps qoq to 46.2%, pressured by higher opex, as cash cost rose +6.6% qoq/ +4.3% yoy to Rp7,559bn. Consequently, EBITDA achievement stood at 71%/ 71.5% of our/ cons.
  • 3Q25 net profit came in at Rp1,252bn (+22.2% qoq, +9.5% yoy), with 9M25 net profit achievement below our estimate (66.2%) and slightly below consensus (72.6%).
  • ARPU improved to Rp40k in 3Q25 (from Rp38.5k in 2Q25), +3.9% qoq/ +7.5% yoy, supported by strong traffic growth (+4.7% qoq/ +10.9% yoy), while data yield remained flat at -0.3% qoq. (Kafi Ananta & Erindra Krisnawan, CFA – BRIDS)

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MIDI (Buy, TP: Rp550) - 9M25 Topline Inline, Earnings Above Expectations

  • MIDI reported 3Q25 revenue of Rp4.9tr (+1.2% qoq/+0% yoy), bringing 9M25 to Rp15.3tr (+4.0% yoy), relatively still inline to our and cons estimates (71%/72% of FY25 est.). The 9M25 figure excludes the consolidation of subsidiary Lancar Wiguna Sejahtera.
  • By geographic, 9M25 revenue declined -11.1% yoy in Jabodetabek and -3.0% yoy in Java ex-Jabodetabek, while Non-Java regions posted growth of +23.6% yoy.
  • Opex declined -5.5% yoy in 3Q25, improving the opex-to-sales ratio from 24.0% in 3Q24 to 22.7%.  As a result, operating profit rose 48.4% yoy.
  • Net profit grew 40.8% yoy & flat qoq in 3Q25, bringing 9M25 net profit to Rp591bn (+26.5% yoy) on opex efficiency. This is above our estimate and consensus. Net margin improved to 3.9% in 9M25 (vs. 3.2% in 9M24). (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

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SILO (Buy, TP: Rp2,600) 9M25 Results: Above Ours, Below Consensus Estimates

  • SILO posted a 3Q25 net profit of Rp305bn, 25% above our estimate of Rp244bn, bringing 9M25 net profit to Rp761bn (82%/69% run-rate to our/consensus FY25F).
  • Revenue grew +8.2% qoq in 3Q25, in line with our +7.5% estimate, driven by strong IP days growth (+9% qoq) offsetting weaker IP intensity (-1% qoq).
  • Lower salary costs as % of revenue in COGS (-155bps qoq) and Opex (-36bps) reflect effective cost control amid higher patient volume, expanding EBITDA margin to 30% (+290bps qoq), above our 28% estimate.
  • Slightly higher MI as % of PAT (5.0% in 3Q25 vs. 4.1% in 1H25) led overall 9M25 PATMI to miss consensus, though still above our forecast.
  • Operationally, SILO’s 9M25 performance remains in line with industry trends, though 3Q25 IP volume/intensity growth (+9%/-1%) were slightly softer vs. peers (HEAL +14%/+0%, MIKA +7%/+1%).
  • With 9M25 revenue and PATMI not delivering a positive surprise vs. consensus, we view the recent share price rally has sufficiently priced-in the results.

We currently have a Buy rating on SILO with our Rp2,600 DCF-based TP. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

US Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates by 25bps

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bps for the second straight month, amid political pressure and a government shutdown that has disrupted key economic data. While President Trump continues to push for deeper cuts to support a slowing economy, inflation and unemployment are both rising under trade war strain. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned markets not to expect another cut in December, emphasizing that further easing is far from a foregone conclusion as policy uncertainty intensifies. (Federal Reserve)

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update October 29, 2025

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CORPORATE

BRMS Boosts Gold Production Capacity

BRMS is expanding its gold processing capacity in Poboya, Palu, upgrading its first CIL plant from 500 to 2,000 tons per day by late 2026, while the second plant maintains stable output of 4,500 tons daily. The company is also progressing on its underground mine, set to operate by mid-2027. (Kontan)

 

PGEO Targets 1.8 GW Geothermal Capacity by 2033

PGEO aims to expand its clean energy capacity to 1.8 GW by 2033, after adding the 55 MW Lumut Balai Unit 2 plant, bringing total capacity to 727 MW. The company targets 1 GW within the next 2–3 years and is developing the Hululais (110 MW) and co-generation (230 MW) projects, as well as exploring the Gunung Tiga geothermal area. (Bisnis)

 

TBIG Completes Sale of Treasury Shares

TBIG has completed the sale of all its treasury shares on October 27, 2025, totaling 350.33mn shares sold to Bersama Digital Infrastructure Asia Pte Ltd at Rp2,138 per share, valued at around Rp749bn before transaction costs. (Emiten News)