FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

GOTO Gojek Tokopedia: Revisiting Performance and Valuation vs GRAB; Improving Profitability Merits a Re-rating (GOTO.IJ Rp 56; BUY TP Rp 100)

• Despite softer ODS growth amid rationalization (vs. GRAB’s aggressive push), GOTO remains on track with efficiencies and GTF expansion.
• GRAB’s recent re-rating to 7.3x P/S widens valuation spread with GOTO (3.5x), despite GOTO’s intact profitability delivery.
• We maintain Buy with a TP of Rp100 (5.9x FY25F P/S), supported by on-track profitability and narrowing TTS-Tokopedia losses.

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesian Government Agree to Raise 2026 State Budget Deficit to Rp689.15tr The DPR Budget Committee and Finance Ministry agreed to revise the 2026 draft state budget, raising the deficit to Rp689.15tr or 2.68% of GDP from 2.48%. The increase is driven by higher spending, up Rp56.2tr to Rp3,842.7tr, including ministry/agency spending of Rp1,510.5tr and regional transfers of Rp693tr. State revenue was set at Rp3,153.6tr, supported by higher tax revenue of Rp2,693.7tr, customs and excise Rp336tr, and non-tax revenue Rp459.2tr. (MoF, DPR RI)   FOMC Cut Its Benchmark Rate By 25bps to 4–4.25% The FOMC cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4–4.25%. The dot plot signals an additional 50 bps cut by end-2025 and 25 bps in 2026, slightly more than June projections. New Governor Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a 50 bps cut. The Fed downgraded its labor market view, citing slower job gains, a higher but still low unemployment rate, and rising downside risks. Inflation is seen at 3.1% in 2025, while growth projections were revised up to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. (The Fed, Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update September 18, 2025

Indonesian Government Allocates Rp500bn for Cooking Oil Aid to Support Poor Households

The Finance Ministry estimates an additional Rp500bn budget will be needed to provide 2 liters of cooking oil as extra social aid for low-income families. The program will accompany the existing 10 kg rice assistance distributed over two months. Lawmakers had earlier urged the government to expand aid beyond rice to better support household purchasing power. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

GOTO Secures US$286mn Four-Year Term Loan Facility

GOTO has secured a new four-year loan facility worth Rp4.7tr (US$286mn) from PT Bank DBS Indonesia and United Overseas Bank Limited. Part of the loan will be used to repay Rp467bn (US$28.4mn) still outstanding from a previous facility signed in November 2022, while the remainder will go toward general corporate purposes, investments, and working capital. (TechinAsia)

 

ITMG Plans Rp2.49tr Share Buyback

ITMG plans to repurchase up to Rp2.49tr (10% of its paid-up capital) worth of shares, pending approval at EGMS on November 3, 2025. The buyback period is scheduled to run from November 4, 2025, to November 4, 2026, following the company’s disclosure on September 18, 2025. (Emiten News)