FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia: FY25 Earnings Beat on Robust Margin and Gearing Up for Robust 1Q26 Earnings (CPIN.IJ Rp3,970; BUY TP Rp5,900)

·         CPIN booked NP of Rp2.3tr in 4Q25 (+56% qoq, +72% yoy), bringing FY25 NP to Rp5.6tr (+52% yoy), above our and cons est.

·         NP was driven by higher qoq OPM across segments (except feed), normalized tax rate, and lower gearing despite inventory build-up

·         Maintain BUY with a TP of Rp5,900 as we revise FY26F EBITDA up by 11%, with robust 1Q26 earnings as a near-term catalyst.

To see the full version of this report, please click here    

To see the full version of this snapshoot, please click here

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ACES (Buy, TP Rp550) – 2M26 SSSG: Positive Momentum Continued 

·         AZKO recorded indicative sales of Rp669bn in Feb26 (+11.7% yoy, -13.7% mom), broadly in line to our estimates at 15.5% of FY26F.

·         Cumulative SSSG for 2M25 stood at 3.8% yoy, mainly driven by its strong performance in Jakarta (+8.2%) and Java ex-Jkt (+5%), while ex-Java was rather flattish (+0.1%).

·         The company indicated the performance in the first half of Mar26 remains on a positive trajectory, supported by Eid festive season.

·         In Mar26, ACES opened 2 new AZKO outlets in Berau (ex-Java) and TSM Bandung (Java ex-Jkt), along with 1 NEKA store. They plan to accelerate store expansion post Lebaran. (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

BBRI (Not Rated) – Feb26 Bank-Only

Feb26 Insight:

·         Normalized mom bottom line: Following a low base in Jan26, earnings rebounded 8% mom to Rp4.0tr in Feb26, although still 13% lower than last year’s high base.

·         CoC improved but remained high: CoC declined to 3.0% in Feb26, improving from 3.7% in Jan26 and 3.3% in Feb25.

·         Resilient mom NIM amid seasonality: Excluding Feb seasonality, NIM would have been higher mom in Feb26 but remained 63bps lower yoy due to pressured EA yield, partly offset by lower CoF.

·         Other operating income declined, partly offset by lower opex: Lower other income and higher realized losses from spot and derivative transactions dragged other operating income down to Rp3.3tr (-11% mom, -20% yoy).

·         Deposit growth driven by TD: Deposits grew 1% mom, with a 6% decline in SA and a 9% increase in TD, potentially signaling a shift toward longer-term deposits by institutional clients.

·         2-year low monthly net write-off: Net write-offs recorded their lowest monthly level in the past two years.

2M26 Insight:

·         Strong yoy growth from low base: BBRI booked NP of Rp7.7tr in 2M26 (+17% yoy), forming 13% of consensus FY26F, in line with last year’s pace.

·         NIM declined on lower EA yield: NIM fell to 6.4% in 2M26 (-34bps yoy) as EA yield dropped 102bps, driven by lower benchmark rates and a reduced contribution from micro loans.

·         Improving CoC from high base: Provision expenses declined 16% yoy while loans grew 10% yoy, leading to a notable improvement in CoC to 3.4% in 2M26 from a high base of 4.4% last year.

Summary:

·         We view BBRI’s Feb26 performance as robust, as earnings and EA yield recovered from the low base in the previous month, while lower CoC was supported by reduced net write-offs.

Results WIFI (Buy, TP: Rp4,400) - FY25 earnings beat 131% of ours and broadly in line with consensus

4Q25 Results

·         WIFI reported net revenues of Rp644bn (+28.5% qoq) in 4Q25, primarily driven by a strong advertising segment (+317% qoq), while the telco segment continued to grow modestly at +2.6% qoq.

·         EBITDA came in at Rp434bn (+70.8% qoq), supported by a significant reduction in opex (-34% qoq), particularly from tax, legal, and other expenses; EBITDA margin expanded to 67.3% in 4Q25.

·         With finance costs relatively flat qoq at Rp148bn, WIFI posted core net profit of Rp148bn (+357.5% qoq).

·         Capex remained elevated at Rp716bn in 4Q25, albeit lower than 3Q25 (at Rp1.3tr), implying 111% of revenue, which indicates the company is still in an active FTTH homepass rollout phase.

FY25 Results

·         FY25 results reflect a meaningful contribution from the FTTH (Starlite) business, generating Rp541bn (32% of revenue), while legacy bandwidth services remained the largest contributor at Rp561bn.

·         FY25 net profit reached Rp409bn, exceeding our forecast by 131% and broadly in-line with consensus at 97%, suggesting the company has effectively delivered on its FY25 guidance. (Kafi Ananta & Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS