FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Coal: Steady Dividend Stream to Cushion Normalizing Coal Price; Cut Sector Rating to Neutral (NEUTRAL)

  • We continue to expect coal price to normalize and forecast Newcastle price at US$110/t in FY25, driven by growth in Indonesia’s export.
  • Amid the projected decline in coal prices, we forecast earnings for Indonesian coal miners to fall by 25-33% in FY25.
  • We cut the sector’s rating to Neutral; despite declining earnings, the sector continues to offer an attractive dividend yield (FY25 avg. 11%).

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

GOTO IJ (BUY, TP: Rp110) – Strong 4Q Growth in Contribution Margin and adj. EBITDA Supported by GTF and ODS

GOTO delivered 4Q24 strong adj. EBITDA of Rp399bn (+193%qoq, +348%yoy) with all 3 pillars (ODS, GTF, Ecommerce) well in positive territory.

  1. This is on the back of better Group core GTV, improved for both ODS and Fintech GTV.
  • ODS GTV grew by +2.7%qoq, +18.7% yoy driven by user growth and increased no. of orders. Moreover, the take rate improved for ODS with advertising revenue growing contribution and premium ODS offerings.
  • Fintech core GTV grew by +10.8% qoq, +71.2% yoy on the back growth of MTU users to 20.2mn and outstanding loans at Rp5.2tr +20% qoq.
  1. 4Q24 contribution margin grew for GOTO to Rp1.78tr +18.5% qoq, 49.9% yoy, supported by ODS and Fintech growth whilst ecommerce fee was slightly lower in 4Q by 4.2%. GOTO contribution margin as % to core GTV grew by 20bps qoq.
  2. Recurring costs were steady in 4Q24, enabling GOTO to improve its quarterly adj. EBITDA reaching 2.3% as % to core GTV (+20bps qoq).

Ecommerce GMV appears flattish in 4Q24 given the flattish EBITDA for GOTO from ecommerce fee received from Tiktok-Tokped. We derive similar impression also from the numbers of Shopee

  1. FY24 net loss reached -Rp5.2tr as per expectation but higher vs. consensus.
  • Other FY24 remarks: We overestimated losses from associates; however GOTO reported high impairments at the end of the year. Moreover GOTO reported income tax vs. our expectation for tax benefit. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta - BRIDS)

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s 2025 State Budget Posted a Rp23.5tr Deficit on Jan35

Indonesia’s 2025 State Budget posted a Rp23.5tr deficit (0.1% of GDP) in Jan25, the first for the month since 2022, while the primary balance stayed positive at Rp10.6tr. Revenue dropped 28% yoy to Rp157tr, mainly due to weaker tax collection, while fiscal spending fell 1.9% yoy to Rp180.8tr. (Bisnis)

 

Indonesia: Retail Sales Index to Reach 213.2 in Feb25

Bank Indonesia forecasts that the Retail Sales Index (RSI) will reach 213.2, reflecting a 0.8% mom increase in Feb25. Retail sales performance in Feb25 is expected to contract by 0.5%. In Jan25, the RSI stood at 211.5, showing a -4.7% mom/+0.5% yoy from +5.9% mom/+1.8% yoy in Dec24. (Bank Indonesia)

 

US Headline and Core CPI Rose 0.2% mom in Feb25

US headline and core CPI rose 0.2% mom in Feb25, below the expected 0.3%. Shelter costs increased 0.3%, contributing nearly half of the monthly gain but at a slower pace than in recent years. Anually, the headline inflation fell to 2.8% and the core inflation fell to 3.1%, the slowest since Apr21. Core inflation was driven by medical care, used vehicles, recreation, and apparel, while airfares and new car prices declined, signaling weaker travel demand. (Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Mar 12, 2025

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CORPORATE

BBCA Announces Final Dividend of Rp250/share

BBCA has decided to distribute a final dividend for the 2024 fiscal year amounting to Rp250/share (yield: 2.7%). In total, the dividend payout for the 2024 fiscal year will reach Rp37tr, including the interim dividend of Rp50/share distributed by BBCA in Dec24. The dividend payout ratio stands at 67.4%. (Kontan)

 

BBCA Prepares Rp70.22tr in Cash for Eid 2025

BBCA is ready to meet the cash and transaction needs of customers during the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 2025 period by allocating Rp70.22tr in cash. This amount represents a 4% increase compared to the cash prepared during the same period in 2024, reflecting projected growth in consumer activity, small businesses, and the rising demand for flexible banking services. Specifically, from March 24 to 27, 2025, 15 Main Branch Offices (KCU) will be on standby to serve small-denomination currency exchange (UPK) in the Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, and Bekasi (Jabodebek) areas. (Emiten News)

 

BBTN Acquired PT Bank Victoria Syariah (BVS) for c.Rp1.6tr

BBTN acquired PT Bank Victoria Syariah (BVS) for an acquisition price of Rp1.6tr. According to BBTN, through this acquisition, BBTN also acquired government securities owned by BVS. From an asset perspective, BBTN will take over the bank's loan equity. In this transaction, BBTN did not purchase the loans or third-party funds from BVS. (Kontan)

 

BIRD Expands Payment Convenience with OVO Integration in MyBluebird

Bluebird taxi users can now make payments using OVO through the MyBluebird app to enhance customer experience. Bluebird remains flexible integrating with various platforms; MyBluebird continues to open collaboration opportunities to provide more seamless and customer-centric services. (Kontan)

 

BYD Expands EV Presence with Bluebird

BYD Motor Indonesia partners with Bluebird to supply Denza D9 EVs for its taxi fleet, supporting public transport electrification. Priced at around Rp950mn, the Denza D9 offers a premium alternative to the Toyota Alphard. In early 2025, BYD and Denza sold 3,400 units, with BYD contributing 2,500 and Denza 937 units. (Kontan)

 

PGAS Plans to Sell Muriah Gas Block

PGAS plans to sell the Muriah gas block, initially set for return to the Ministry of Energy as its contract ends in Dec26. Through its subsidiary, Saka Energi Indonesia, PGAS records Muriah’s gas reserves at approximately 8 Bscf, with production maintained at around 9 MMscfd using efficiency measures and advanced technology. President Director Arief Setiawan Handoko stated that interested buyers see an acquisition opportunity, and proceeds from the sale could help cover sunk costs. (Bisnis)

 

Telkomsel Expands Hyper 5G to Power Indonesia’s Digital Future

Telkomsel is accelerating its Hyper 5G expansion across Jabotabek, delivering high-speed, stable, and quality connectivity for businesses and communities. With 1,400+ 5G BTS now live in key districts and 2,200+ BTS across 56 cities, Telkomsel is driving Indonesia’s 5G revolution. In Jabotabek, 5G adoption has surpassed 30%, with speeds reaching 500 Mbps for downloads and 110 Mbps for uploads. To enhance customer experience, Telkomsel offers double 5G quotas, exclusive perks, and special smartphone bundling. Network Director Indra M. highlighted plans for further expansion in cities like Surabaya, Makassar, Medan, and Batam, reinforcing Telkomsel’s commitment to nationwide digital transformation. (Company)