BMRI (Buy, TP: Rp6,200) - Bank-only: Feb26 Results

Feb26 Insight:

·         Robust net profit: BMRI recorded a net profit of Rp4.2tr in Feb26, down 10% mom due to seasonality but up 17% yoy, driven by higher loan growth, strong fee-based income, and lower CoC.

·         High loan growth offsetting lower NIM: NII recorded 8% yoy growth, driven by 16% yoy loan growth, offsetting the decline in NIM to 4.0% (–25bps yoy). The mom NIM decline was mainly due to fewer days in Feb and was otherwise relatively flattish.

·         Lower NIM on pressured EA yield: EA yield declined to 6.1% (–56bps yoy), offsetting the lower CoF of 2.1% (–35bps yoy).

·         PPOP grew 9% yoy: Despite higher opex (+10% yoy), strong other operating income (+12% yoy), driven by fee-based income (+24% yoy), pushed PPOP growth to 9% yoy.

·         CoC remained low: CoC increased 16bps mom to 0.5% but remained 32bps lower than last year’s high base.

·         LDR remained at ~92%: LDR remained flattish mom at 92%, with relatively stable loan and deposit balances. CASA declined to 72% as CA dropped 2% mom while TD rose 4% mom.

2M26 Insight:

·         Double-digit NP growth from low base: BMRI recorded a net profit of Rp8.2tr in 2M26 (+17% yoy), forming 15% of our and 16% of consensus’ FY26F, slightly ahead of 2M25’s 13%.

·         High loan growth offsetting lower NIM: Despite NIM declining by 20bps yoy, NII grew 9% yoy, supported by 16% yoy loan growth.

·         Lower NIM on pressured EA yield: NIM fell to 4.3% (-20bps yoy) as the 31bps improvement in CoF was insufficient to offset the 43bps decline in EA yield.

·         PPOP grew double-digit: PPOP rose 10% yoy as NII and other income each grew 9% yoy, offsetting a 7% increase in opex.

·         CoC remained low: Despite 16% loan growth, provision expenses declined 26% (from a high base), resulting in a 24bps lower CoC of 0.4%.

Summary:

·         Overall performance: BMRI’s Feb26 results were Robust, with softer mom performance due to seasonality but strong yoy growth driven by loan expansion and fee-based income, albeit from a low base last year. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

GOTO (Buy, TP: Rp100) - FY25 Adj. EBITDA Beat at Rp2.0tr (106-112% of Company Guidance; 121% of BRIDS Forecast)

FY25 results highlight continued profitability momentum, supported by GTF scaling as a new growth engine, while ODS recorded modest growth but improving margins.

4Q25/FY25 Results

·         FY25 Adj. EBITDA came in at Rp2.0tr, exceeding company guidance of Rp1.8-1.9tr and reaching 121% of BRIDS forecast (Rp1.65tr).

·         GTF loan book reached Rp8.7tr (+15% qoq), above our est. of Rp8.1tr, supported by continued growth in GoPay MTUs to 26.2mn (+30% yoy).

·         ODS GTV grew modestly by +3.8% yoy in 4Q25; however, the affluent-focused strategy helped lift profitability, with Adj. EBITDA margin +30bps qoq to 2.3%.

·         EBIT declined to Rp-156bn, mainly due to one-off opex incl. severance/management transition and contingency costs related to cloud migration.

·         Net loss of Rp410bn in 4Q25 was largely driven by non-cash impairment charges of Rp886bn recorded during the quarter.

Outlook / Guidance

·         FY26 Adj. EBITDA guided at Rp3.2-3.4tr (+60% yoy).

·         ODS Adj. EBITDA guided at Rp1.7-1.8tr (+22-29% yoy), with expected high-single-digit GTV growth.

·         GTF Adj. EBITDA guided at Rp1.4-1.5tr (+182-202% yoy), supported by steady loan book expansion.

Other Highlights

·         Mgmt. reiterated that there is currently no official change to the commission rate framework, which remains at ~20%. GOTO continues to maintain close communication with regulators regarding this matter.

·         GOTO has introduced several driver welfare initiatives, including Hari Raya bonuses for ~400k drivers and BPJS social security coverage. Associated costs have already been incorporated into FY26 EBITDA guidance.

·         Regarding recent media reports on driver shortages, mgmt. views as seasonal—driven by Ramadan and weather conditions—rather than structural. The company does not expect this to materially disrupt the platform ecosystem. (Kafi Ananta & Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

Indonesia’s State Revenue Reached Rp358tr as of Feb26

Indonesia’s state revenue reached Rp358tr as of Feb26, growing 12.8% yoy, supported by strong tax collection. Tax revenue totaled Rp245.1tr, rising 30.4% yoy, while excise revenue stood at Rp44.9tr, still contracting 14.7% due to commodity price factors but recently showing a 7% yoy recovery. Meanwhile, state spending surged 41.9% yoy to Rp493.8tr, consisting of Rp346.1tr in central government spending and Rp147.7tr in transfers to regions. As a result, the fiscal balance recorded a deficit of 0.53% of GDP, still within the 2026 budget target corridor. (MoF)

Indonesian Government Spends Rp44tr on MBG Program as of 9 Mar26

The government has spent Rp44tr on the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) Program as of 9 March 2026. The program has a total budget allocation of Rp335tr for 2026, and as of the same date has reached 61.62m beneficiaries. (Investor Daily)

US Inflation Held Steady At 2.4% Yoy In Feb26

US inflation held steady at 2.4% yoy in Feb26, unchanged from January and in line with expectations, marking the lowest level since May 2025. The stability reflected a rebound in energy prices alongside steady food and shelter inflation, while used car prices declined further. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3%, slightly faster than January’s 0.2%, driven mainly by shelter, gasoline, and food. Meanwhile, core inflation remained at 2.5% yoy, near its lowest level since 2021, with monthly core CPI increasing 0.2%, indicating easing underlying price pressures. (U.S. BLS, Bloomberg)