FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Bank Central Asia: 2Q25 Results: In Line Earnings Underpinned by Solid Loan Growth (BBCA.IJ Rp 8,375; BUY TP Rp 11,900)

• BBCA's 2Q25 net profit rose 5% qoq/ 6% yoy, bringing 1H25 NP to Rp29.0tr (+8% yoy), in line with our/cons est. at 50% of FY25F.
• Management raised FY25F CoC guidance to 0.3-0.5% while maintaining loan growth and NIM guidance at 6-8% yoy and 5.7-5.8%, respectively.
• We maintain Buy rating on BBCA with an unchanged TP of Rp11,900. BBCA remains our top pick in the sector.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ASII (Buy, TP Rp5,800) – In-line 1H25, driven by better 2Q25 earnings

Key highlights:

• 1H25 net profit (ex-fair value adjustment): Rp16tr (-4% yoy), 53%/ 50% of BRIDS/ Cons FY25F
• 2Q25 net profit (ex-FV adj): Rp8.6tr (+16.6% qoq/ +0.8% yoy).
• The better 2Q25 earnings (qoq) was driven by:
• UNTR: 2Q25 operating profit of Rp6.2tr (+13% qoq/ -13% yoy) on better weather condition to support Pama’s production
• Equity income: 2Q25 of Rp2.0tr (+13% qoq/ -16% yoy), driven by slight increase (+2% qoq) in AHM earnings and no more impairment from NIC (UNTR)
• Agribusiness: operating profit Rp558bn (+17% qoq/ +64% yoy) on stronger CPO price.
• The above, combined with steady earnings from financial services (operating profit +2% qoq/ +6yoy) has more than offset the decline in operating profit from the Automotive segment (-42% qoq/ -87% yoy).
• Overall, we deem 1H25 earnings to meet our and consensus expectations. We expect further improvement in UNTR’s earnings in the upcoming quarters to continue to offset potentially weaker earnings in the automotive (4W) segment. (Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

BNGA (Not Rated) - 2Q25 Results (In Line with Consensus) & Concall KTA

2Q25 Insights:

• Net Profit Decline Driven by Provisions and NII: BNGA reported Rp1.7tr net profit (-9% qoq, -4% yoy), with the qoq decline attributed to a 33% rise in provisions from a low 1Q25 base. The yoy decline was driven by higher opex (+3% yoy) and a -2% yoy drop in NII.
• NIM Under Continued Pressure: NIM held at 3.9% in 2Q25 (flat qoq, -32bps yoy), as loan yield fell to 8.0% (-13bps qoq, -37bps yoy) on a shift toward lower-yielding non-retail loans, rather than segment-specific rate cuts. CoF improved slightly (-6bps qoq), supported by a 156bps qoq CASA increase and lower deposit rates.
• Solid Customer Deposits and CASA: Customer deposits rose 4.8% yoy (+3% qoq). CASA increased 10.9% yoy (5.4% qoq), while TD declined 6.6% yoy (-1.9% qoq), resulting in a CASA ratio of 69.0% (+156bps qoq, +378bps yoy) in 2Q25. 
• Loan Growth Led by Corporate Segment: Loans grew 6.8% yoy (+0.8% qoq), driven by corporate loans (+1.4% qoq, +9.3% yoy), consumer loans (flat qoq, +4.7% yoy), and SME loans (+1.6% qoq. +7.3% yoy). Management aims to raise retail loan share from the current 44.8% to the high 40s percentage range.
• Robust LDR: LDR stood at a healthy 88.5%.
• Still Low CoC: CoC rose to 0.7% from 0.6% in 1Q25, though down from 0.9% in 2Q24.
• Stable NPL: NPL remained steady at 1.9% (+2bps qoq, -29bps yoy).

 

1H25 Insights:

• NP Growth In Line with Expectations: BNGA reported a net profit of Rp3.5tr (+1% yoy) in 1H25, in line with consensus (50%) estimate.
• PPOP decline offset by provision expenses drop: The 25% yoy provision drop offset the 4% yoy PPOP decline, resulting in a slight increase in net profit.
• Decline in NIM as CoF rose and loan yield fell: NIM declined to 3.9% in 1H25 from 4.1% in 1H24, due to a 13bps rise in CoF to 4.0%, despite the CASA ratio increase to 69.0% (+378bps yoy), and also due to a 30bps loan yield drop to 8.0%.
• Higher CIR due to flat NII and higher opex: CIR increased to 45.5% (+162bps qoq) as NII remained flat while opex grew 3% yoy, mainly from continued investment in technology and digital enablement. While tech-related costs are expected to continue to be at this level, management aims to offset this through cost-saving measures, including branch and ATM network optimization.
• CoC Improvement Resulting in Guidance Revision: CoC improved to 0.6% in 1H25 from 0.9% in 1H24, prompting management to lower its FY25F CoC guidance to 0.6-0.8% from 1.0% set previously.

 

FY25 Guidance:

• NIM: 3.9–4.2% (Unchanged)
• Loan Growth: 5–7% yoy (Unchanged)
• CoC: 0.6-0.8% (down from 1.0% prev.)
• CIR: Below 45% (Unchanged)

 

Summary:

• BNGA’s 2Q25 results came in line with consensus expectations. Earnings were weighed down by softer NII and higher provisions. While NIM remained under pressure, funding cost showed early signs of easing, supported by improving CASA. Asset quality remained stable, with a slight increase in CoC from a low base. Going forward, BNGA’s performance will depend on its ability to rebuild NIM through funding cost discipline and a more profitable loan mix, while managing tech-driven opex and maintaining credit quality. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BSDE (Buy, TP: Rp1,450) - 1H25 Results: In-line with our and consensus estimates

• BSDE booked a net profit of Rp967bn in 2Q25 (+202%qoq; +8%yoy), bringing 1H25 net profit to Rp1.29tr (-45%yoy). This represents 50%/48% of our/cons FY25F estimates of Rp2.6tr/Rp2.7tr.
• Overall revenue in 2Q25 rose 37%qoq, supported by stronger land, house, and shophouse sales bookings, which increased 46%qoq from Rp2.1tr to Rp3.0tr. This signals an improvement from weak 1Q25 product handovers disrupted by fewer working days.
• Operating margin expanded by 12p.p in 2Q25, accompanied by a higher portion of other income, supporting net margin recovery from 1Q25. Excluding all non-core items (forex losses, share in JV/assoc. net profit), core profit came in slightly above our expectations, with 58% run-rate.
• We view the result as positive recovery for BSDE, despite subdued growth due to weak 1Q25 contribution. Maintain Buy with our 67% disc. to RNAV-based TP of Rp1,450. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

BUKA (Buy, TP: 165) – 2Q25 Strong Gaming, but contribution margin softens

• BUKA booked 2Q25 adjusted EBITDA of Rp-14bn (vs. -Rp20bn in 1Q25), supported by continued cost savings.
• Revenue rose +12% qoq / +31% yoy, driven by strong performance in gaming and investment, while Mitra and retail segments softened post-Lebaran.
• All four segments posted positive contribution margins, though group CM fell 9% qoq to Rp73bn due to less favorable product mix in gaming.
• G&A declined 32% qoq to Rp124bn, aided by normalized costs, IT efficiencies, and lower stock-based compensation.
• Management remains cautious on the macro outlook, holding off on EBITDA break-even guidance, but stays focused on execution, profitability, and deploying Rp18.5tr cash for strategic growth. (Kafi & Erindra - BRIDS).

INCO (Buy, TP Rp3,900) – 1H25 earnings below on weak 2Q25 margin; stronger 2H25 prospect

• 2Q25 net profit came in at US$3mn (-84% qoq/ -89% yoy), bringing 1H25 net profit to US$25mn (-32% yoy), forming 29%/ 32% of BRIDS/ Cons. FY25F
• 2Q25 revenue improved +6.6% qoq/ -11% yoy, driven by stronger production volume (+9% qoq) and higher nickel ASP.
• However, gross and operating profit was dragged down by higher royalty cost (doubled qoq) and costs associated with planned maintenance in 2Q25.
• Despite the weak 2Q25 results, management reiterated that it has reached new terms for nickel matte pricing with customers and obtained approval for the revised RKAB of around 2.2mn tons of saprolite ore from the Bahodopi block. This could potentially accelerate 2H25 earnings. (Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

ISAT (Buy, TP: 2,600) – 2Q25 Earnings miss; FY25 EBITDA guidance revised down

• Core profit fell to Rp1.02tr (-11% qoq, -29% yoy) on softer revenue and higher opex (mainly from increased cost of services and depreciation); 1H25 core profit reached 38%/40% of BRIDS/cons FY25F.
• Revenue slipped to Rp13.5tr (-0.3% qoq, -4.3% yoy), with cellular down -0.8% qoq as industry-wide price repair has yet to show impact.
• ARPU declined -1.8% qoq due to an -11.2% drop in data yield, reflecting legacy discounted starter pack absorption.
• 2Q25 EBITDA margin slightly improved to 47.6% reflecting impact of cost efficiency; 1H25 EBITDA at 45-46% of of BRIDS/ Cons FY25F.
• Capex rose to Rp4.8tr (36% of revenue), driven by ~13.6k BTS additions and initial GPU investments, lifting depreciation.
• Mgmt revised FY25 EBITDA growth guidance from ~10% yoy to low single-digit, citing persistent softness in the mobile and delayed ARPU uplift realization. Nonetheless, we believe recovery is on track in 2H25 as price repair gains traction through a ~10% entry-level uplift, discount removal, and product simplification. (Kafi & Erindra - BRIDS).

MAPA (Buy, TP: Rp970) 2Q25: Slightly Below Despite Stronger 2H Seasonality

• MAPA posted 1H25 revenue and net profit growth of +12% and +13% yoy, respectively – both came in below our and consensus’ estimates despite the usual seasonal uplift in the 2H. 
• In 2Q25, revenue rose 4% qoq and 7% yoy, primarily supported by domestic market which posted +8% yoy growth. Meanwhile, overseas sales only grew a modest 2% yoy, driven by Cambodia (+18%) and Thailand (+14%).
• GPM improved by 180bps to 46.9% in 2Q25 despite it was 30bps lower qoq. Nonetheless, opex rose 3% qoq and 17% yoy particularly on salaries & allowances and ads & promotion, which resulted to lower op margin.
• On the bottom line, it declined 5% qoq but rose 6% yoy in 2Q25, with net margin stood at 7.2%. (Christy Halim & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

MAPI (Buy, TP: Rp2,000) 2Q25: Decent Result, In Line!

• MAPI recorded 1H25 revenue and net profit growth of +9% and +7% yoy, respectively –slightly below our estimates but in line with consensus.
• Revenue grew a healthy +10% qoq and +12% yoy in 2Q25, driven by strong performance in specialty stores (+15% yoy) particularly the fashion segment (+26%) and MAPA (+7%). In contrast, the F&B and dept stores segments declined by 4% and 9% yoy. 
• Overseas revenue rose 21% yoy, led by Philippines (+34%) and Thailand (+14%), while domestic revenue increased 10% yoy.
• Opex were up modestly by 2% qoq and 8% yoy, supporting stable operating margin qoq at 8.3% in 2Q25. Net profit increased 4% qoq and was flat on a yoy basis. (Christy Halim & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

MIDI (Buy, TP: Rp540) 2Q25 Results: In-line Sales Performance, Net Profit Beats on Lower Opex

• MIDI reported 1H25 revenue growth of +6% yoy, relatively in line to our estimates, despite it posted negative growth of -12% qoq and -3% yoy in 2Q25. Net profit rose by +20% yoy in 1H25 (+5% qoq, +21% yoy in 2Q25) came in above than our estimates.
• Among its categories, both fresh food and non-food driving the growth by +17% and +12% yoy in 2Q25, respectively. And regionally, non-Java areas continue to support the growth by +24% yoy, meanwhile both Java ex-Jabodetabek and Jabodetabek posted negative growth of -13% and -24%, respectively.
• At the operating level, it posted +20% yoy in 1H25 (+8% qoq and +22% yoy in 2Q25), supported by lower opex. Gross margin declined due to weaker top-line performance, yet op margin and net margin still improved thanks to the reduced opex. (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

MTEL (Buy, TP: 800) – 2Q25 in line; Solid growth in tower leasing

• MTEL reported 1H25 net profit of Rp1.09tr, broadly in line at 52%/50% of our and consensus est., supported by steady performance in tower and fiber.
• Revenue reached Rp2.3tr (+3.2% qoq, +2.9% yoy), mainly driven by leasing contributions from Tsel and IOH, with tenancy ratio improving to 1.53x (from 1.52x in 1Q25).
• EBITDA rose +5.5% qoq to Rp1.9tn, with margin expanding +185bps to 85%, benefiting from lower contribution of managed services, though margin is expected to normalize back to ~83%.
• Mgmt. maintains FY25 guidance of 2,500 tenant adds, 1,000 new B2S towers, and 10,000 km fiber rollout.
• MTEL remains active in pursuing inorganic growth via tower and FTTT acquisitions, while TLKM’s InfraCo restructuring is seen as non-disruptive given the distinct focus on backbone/FTTH versus MTEL’s tower/FTTT domain. (Kafi & Erindra - BRIDS).

MYOR (Buy, TP Rp2,800) – 2Q25: Soft Results, Missed Estimates

• MYOR posted 1H25 topline growth of +10% yoy, but core profit declined by 31% yoy. Both revenue and earnings came in below our and consensus’ estimates.
• In 2Q25 alone, its revenue dropped by 16% yoy and 20% qoq. Food segment still managed to grow 7% yoy growth, while beverage segment declined 3% yoy. GPM fell to 20.3% in 2Q25, pressured by elevated key input costs, particularly coffee, cocoa and coconut oil.
• Despite the revenue weakness, op margin improved by 100bps yoy and 10bps qoq in 2Q25 driven by the lower opex especially in A&P (opex to rev 11.6% in 2Q25 vs 14.2% in 2Q24).  However, 2Q25 core profit declined 8% yoy and 19% qoq.

Comment:

• Overall, MYOR’s 2Q25 performance was soft. Topline growth was mainly driven by higher ASP, while volumes declined. Elevated raw material costs continued to weigh on margins, though lower opex provided some relief. More details to follow after its earnings call. For now, we maintain our Buy rating with TP Rp2,800! (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

MIKA (Buy, TP: Rp3,200) - 1H25 Results: In-LIne with Our and Consensus Estimates

• MIKA reported Net Profit of Rp329bn in 2Q25 (+6% yoy, +6% qoq), bringing its 1H25 achievement to Rp640bn (+7% yoy), forming 51%/50% of our/cons FY25F estimates of Rp1.26tr/Rp1.28tr.
• While 2Q25 top-line only grew 2% qoq (vs. our estimates of 6% qoq), MIKA managed to improve its operating margin by 130bps qoq, due to lower salary cost as % of revenue.
• Overall, 1H25 net profit of Rp640bn relatively matches with our estimates of Rp632bn.
• Volume data and more details to be released on earnings call Fri.31 Jul @4PM.
• 2Q25 results exposes resilient operations of MIKA (efforts to increase intensity) despite lower volume due to high-base, coupled with steady margin preservation through key operational cost control. Maintain Buy with our DCF-based TP of Rp3,200. Top Picks in Hospital. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

TBIG (Hold, TP: Rp1,800) – 1H25 in line; Muted tenancy growth, margin lift from cost control

• TBIG posted 1H25 net profit of Rp823bn (+12.6% yoy), reaching 59%/52% of our/cons. estimates, supported mainly by higher other income.
• Revenue slightly declined -0.7% yoy to Rp3.45tr as tenancy growth remained soft with a flat tenancy ratio of 1.78x. Revenue achievement was broadly in line at 50%/49% of our/cons.
• EBITDA rose +5.4% qoq / +3.6% yoy to Rp1.53tr in 2Q25, with margin expanding sharply to 88.7% (+514bps qoq), driven by lower repairs and maintenance costs.
• 1H25 tenancy additions were muted at 431 gross tenancies (236 new sites, 195 collocations), reflecting industry consolidation across telco operators. (Kafi & Erindra - BRIDS).

UNTR (Buy, TP Rp23,800): 1H25 in-line, thanks to strong 2Q25 earnings

• 2Q25 net profit rose by a strong +55% qoq/ -1% yoy, bringing 1H25 net profit to Rp8.1tr (-15% yoy), forming 49%/ 47% of our/ consensus FY25F, in-line with historical run-rate (48-53% of FY).
• The stronger 2Q25 earnings reflected the following:
• Improved operational performance q-q, with +11% qoq for Pama’s total production volumes amid dryer weather condition, and +19% gold sales volume, which offset slight decline in Komatsu sales (-3% qoq).
• Lower portion of loss from associate booked in 2Q25 (vs. 1Q25’s Rp501bn, largely due to fair value adjustment on NIC).
• Improved cost efficiency (operating margin improved 2ppt to 18%), mainly due to better production volumes at Pama.
• We see potential for 2H25 earnings to accelerate on the back of further improvement in weather conditions to support Pama’s production and faster ramp-up of gold production, despite the expected slowing delivery of Komatsu units. (Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

UNVR (Sell, TP: Rp1,500) – 2Q25 Results: Beats Estimates Despite Tepid Growth

• UNVR’s 1H25 revenue and net profit declined -4% and -13% yoy respectively. However, both figures beat ours and consensus’ estimates given the low market expectations.
• In 2Q25, revenue fell 8% qoq and 3% yoy. Home & personal care (HPC) segment underperformed with its revenue declined 4% yoy, while foods & refreshment (F&R) showed flattish yoy growth. GPM contracted 150bps yoy to 48% in 2Q25 due to a shift in product mix toward the lower margin F&R category. 
• Op profit declined 2% yoy and 21% qoq despite normalized opex on the back of lower ads & marketing research and sales expense. Thus, op margin slipped to 14.6% in 2Q25. In all, net profit dropped 10% yoy and 26% qoq in 2Q25, with net margin stood at 10.5%.

Comment:

• In line with our preview, UNVR results came in above market expectations, though growth remains muted. Lower opex were not enough to fully offset the weak revenue performance. More details to follow after its earnings call this morning at 8.30am. (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

The Federal Reserve held Fed Fund Rate at 4.25%–4.5% The Federal Reserve held Fed Fund Rate at 4.25%–4.5% in a 9-2 vote, with Governors Waller and Bowman dissenting in favor of a cut. The Fed downgraded its economic outlook, citing slower growth and moderating consumer spending, though Powell noted households remain in “solid shape.” Markets reacted hawkishly, with lower odds of a September cut, rising Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar. Despite pressure from President Trump to cut rates, the Fed reiterated that inflation remains elevated and uncertainty persists. (Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update July 30, 2025

Indonesian Gov’t Plans to Eliminate Medium and Premium Rice

Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman confirmed that the government is reviewing the plan to eliminate the "medium" and "premium" rice categories, with a final decision expected soon. The proposal, raised by the National Food Agency (Bapanas), aims to simplify rice classification to just general and special types, following widespread fraud where premium-labeled rice failed to meet quality standards. As a result, regulations on rice price ceilings (HET) will also be revised to set a single upper price limit. The move follows findings that 212 out of 268 rice brands failed to meet national standards, with some containing up to 50% broken rice. Legal action is being pursued against offenders. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

DEWA Secures Rp350bn Syndicated Loan from BBCA and DNAR

DEWA announced that it has signed a Syndicated Loan Facility Agreement with BBCA and DNAR on July 29, 2025. The company secured a syndicated loan facility worth Rp350bn, with an option to increase the commitment up to Rp500bn. The facility carries a two-year tenor and an effective annual interest rate of 8.3%. The funds will be used for working capital, secured by the company’s machinery, equipment, receivables, and inventory. (Emiten News)