FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Malindo Feedmill Indonesia: FY25 Earnings Beat on Strong Poultry Prices and Resilient Feed Margin (MAIN.IJ Rp920; BUY TP Rp1,700)

  • MAIN booked NP of Rp258bn in 4Q25 (+37% qoq, +100% yoy), bringing FY25 NP to Rp394bn (-19% yoy), above our estimate.
  • The strong earnings were driven by revenue expansion across segments as well as qoq margin improvement except feed.
  • Maintain BUY with a higher TP of Rp1,700 as we raise FY26F EBITDA by 13%, with robust 1Q26 earnings as a near-term catalyst.

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Midi Utama Indonesia: Sequential Recovery Intact Despite Rising Oil Price Risks (MIDI.IJ Rp304; BUY TP Rp500)

  • MIDI’s sales and SSSG momentum improved in 4Q25 into early FY26F; we now project SSSG of 3.6/4.7% in FY26/27F.
  • Supplier price hikes (at 2-10% so far) due to rising oil prices are passed on to consumers, limiting margin impact but posing risks to vol growth.
  • We raise FY26-27F net profit estimates by 7.2-8.8% and reiterate our Buy rating but with a lower TP of Rp500)

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

MEDC (Buy, TP: Rp2,000) - FY25 Result: Revenue beat our est. amid bottom line pressure

  • MEDC reported relatively flat FY25 revenue at US$2.4bn (-0.2% yoy), despite a >15% decline in oil prices during FY25, which allowed MEDC to beat our est. (113% of FY25) and come in-line with consensus (103% of FY25). The main contributor remained Net Oil & Gas, which grew modestly (+1% yoy), while the power plant segment emerged as the key growth driver (+57% yoy), supported by the commissioning of several renewable facilities such as Ijen Geothermal (COD 1Q25; 35MW) and East Bali Solar PV (COD 2Q25; 25MWp).
  • However, MEDC’s net profit declined sharply to US$101mn (-72.5% yoy), mainly due to higher non-operational expenses, particularly loss on asset impairment of US$128mn (3.4x vs FY24). As a result, net profit came below our expectations (74% of FY25) and consensus (65% of FY25).
  • In 4Q25, revenue reached US$638mn (+3.1% q-q; +3.6% yoy). Operationally, both gross profit and operating profit improved q-q, with EBITDA at US$318mn (-1.7% q-q; +8.6% yoy), remaining relatively stable. However, net profit dropped significantly to US$15mn (-68.5% q-q; -83.8% yoy), driven by a surge in other non-operational costs (+89.6% q-q; +543% yoy). (Andhika Audrey – BRIDS)

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Headline Inflation Rose to 3.48% yoy in Mar26

Indonesia’s headline inflation rose to 3.48% yoy in March 2026, indicating firmer price pressures compared with previous months. Core inflation stood at 2.52% yoy, suggesting underlying demand remained relatively stable. Administered prices recorded the highest increase at 6.08% yoy, mainly driven by electricity tariffs and cigarette prices. Meanwhile, volatile food inflation reached 4.24% yoy, supported by rising prices of chicken meat, rice, and eggs. On a monthly basis, inflation was recorded at 0.41% m/m, reflecting moderate price increases during the month. (Statistics Indonesia)

 

Indonesia Posted a US$1.27bn Trade Surplus in Feb26

Indonesia posted a US$1.27bn trade surplus in February 2026, marking the 70th consecutive month of surplus. The oil and gas balance remained in deficit, while the non-oil surplus reached US$5.42bn, supported by exports of animal and vegetable fats, mineral fuels, iron and steel, nickel products, and footwear. Non-oil exports rose 1.30% yoy, driven by a 5.24% yoy increase in manufacturing, despite declines in mining (-18.16% yoy) and agriculture (-31.45% yoy). Imports were still dominated by raw materials which rose by 4.25% yoy, followed by capital goods (+33.68%) and consumption goods (+19.84%). (Statistics Indonesia)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 1, 2026

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Electricity Tariffs Unchanged for 2Q26 to Support Purchasing Power

The government, through the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, has decided to keep electricity tariffs unchanged by PLN for 2Q26 (April–June) to maintain economic stability and purchasing power. Despite potential adjustments based on macro parameters, such as exchange rate (Rp16,743/USD), ICP (US$62.78/bbl), inflation (0.22%), and coal price (US$70/ton), authorities opted to hold tariffs steady amid global geopolitical uncertainty. PLN affirmed its commitment to ensuring reliable electricity supply and operational efficiency nationwide. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

SILO to Acquire 14 Hospital Property Companies for Rp9tr

SILO has announced a plan to acquire shares in 14 hospital property companies with a total transaction value of approximately Rp9tr as part of its business expansion strategy. The transaction will be executed in two stages, comprising an initial acquisition of Rp5.12tr covering eight hospital properties, followed by a second stage of Rp3.87tr through a put option mechanism for six properties. The entire transaction will be funded through a syndicated loan facility. (Emiten News)

 

UNTR Launches New Rp2tr Buyback After Early Termination of Previous Program

UNTR plans a new share buyback worth Rp2tr for the period 1 April–30 June 2026, funded by internal cash, aimed at stabilizing its share price and enhancing capital flexibility. This follows the early termination of its previous buyback program on 31 March 2026, under which the company had repurchased 36.4 million shares worth Rp1.06tr, leaving around Rp943.66bn unused. (Investor Daily)

 

WINS Ends Buyback Early After Acquiring 1.19% Shares

WINS decided to terminate its share buyback program about two months ahead of schedule, after repurchasing 53.28 million shares (1.19% of total shares) worth around US$1.37mn. The company still has US$2.03mn (~Rp32.1bn) in unused funds, which will be redirected to operations and business development. (Emiten News)