FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Siloam International Hospitals: Trimming Our FY25-26F Net Profit Est. by 7%; LT Revenue Intensity Growth Outlook Remains Intact (SILO.IJ Rp 2,380; BUY TP Rp2,850)

• Weak volume seasonality and elevated salary/drug costs dragged down 1Q25 net profit, only partially offset by higher private patients mixes.
• We trimmed our FY25F/26F Net Profit by 7% but see the long-term outlook of stable revenue intensity growth remaining intact.
• Maintain our Buy rating with a slightly lower DCF-based TP of Rp2,850. Risk could come from the impact of leverage on leased assets buyback.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

BBRI (Not Rated) (Bank-only) Apr25 Results

4M25 Insight:

• 16% bottom-line contraction: BBRI posted net profit of Rp15.0tr in 4M25 (-16% yoy), below consensus FY25F estimates (26%).
• Lower PPOP amid slightly lower CoC: PPOP contracted 8% yoy, mainly due to a 21% increase in opex, pushing CIR up to 37% (vs. 31% last year), which offset the 9bps improvement in CoC.
• Slightly lower CoC from high base: CoC improved slightly to 3.5% (-9bps yoy), coming off a high base in 4M24.
• NIM remained under pressure: NIM declined to 6.7% (-11bps yoy), impacted by falling loan yields, despite marginal CoF improvement.
• CIR increased to 37%: CIR rose by 616bps yoy to 37%, driven by higher opex and flattish NII.
• LDR maintained below 90%: Despite just a 1% increase in deposits, LDR rose to 89% (+313bps yoy), as loan growth remained modest at 4% yoy due to cautious micro loan disbursement.

 

Apr25 Insight:

• Soft bottom line: BBRI posted net profit of Rp3.9tr in Apr25 (-13% mom, -3% yoy), weighed down by NIM compression and persistent credit cost.
• Slight decline in NIM: NIM fell 17bps mom, as lower EA yield offset the steady CoF.
• CoC within guidance: CoC stood at 3.2% in Apr25, near the upper end of management’s guidance—higher than Mar25 but improved 10bps yoy.
• CASA ratio dropped to 86%: Customer deposits declined 1% mom, while the bank raised time deposits as a liquidity buffer, lowering the CASA ratio.
• Modest loan growth: Loans grew 1% mom and 4% yoy, reflecting continued cautiousness in the micro segment amid challenging conditions.

 

Summary:

• We view BBRI’s 4M25 results as Neutral, with rising opex and continued NIM pressure weighing on earnings. That said, credit cost showed improvement compared to 1Q25, offering a slight positive. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BBTN (Buy, TP: Rp1,400) (Bank-only) Apr25 Results

4M25 Insight:

• 3% bottom-line growth: BBTN booked net profit of Rp1.0tr in 4M25 (+3% yoy), supported by accounting changes that helped offset the spike in credit cost. Results were relatively in line with our (30%) and consensus (32%) FY25F estimates.
• NIM expanded amid lower LDR: NIM rose 34bps yoy to 3.5%, supported by lower CoF and a slightly higher EA yield. This came despite a 313bps drop in LDR to 93.3%.
• Higher credit cost: CoC increased 39bps yoy to 1.1%, mainly due to rising NPLs in the mortgage segment.
• Opex remained heavy: Opex rose 11% yoy, but CIR declined as other operating income grew 12% and NII rose 18%, partially due to the accounting adjustments.
• LDR maintained below 95%: Customer deposits grew 9% yoy—outpacing loan growth of 5%—supported by CASA growth. CASA ratio improved to 51.3% (+164bps yoy).

 

Apr25 Insight:

• Back to normalized level: Net profit fell to Rp107bn in Apr25, down sharply from the one-off high base in Mar25 (Rp652bn, -84% mom) and lower than Apr24’s Rp124bn (-14% yoy).
• One-off distorted monthly comparison: Mar25 was boosted by one-off accounting changes, skewing the mom comparison.
• NP weighed down by opex and provisions: Despite a 23% increase in NII (on the back of a 47bps NIM improvement), bottom-line declined yoy as opex rose 14% and provisioning nearly doubled.
• CoC stayed elevated: CoC remained high at 1.2%, flat mom but significantly up from 0.7% in Apr24.

 

Summary:

• We view BBTN’s 4M25 results as soft, as elevated opex and credit cost continued to weigh on profitability, effectively neutralizing the positive impact from accounting changes. On the positive side, CoF showed signs of improvement and deposit growth remained strong, supported by CASA. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BBYB (Buy, TP: Rp400) Apr25 Results

4M25 Insight:

• Solid bottom-line turnaround: BBYB booked net profit of Rp191bn in 4M25 (vs. Rp11bn net loss in 4M24), exceeding our (71%) and consensus (94%) FY25F estimates.
• Earnings surge driven by significantly lower CoC: The strong bottom line was entirely supported by a sharp drop in CoC to 16.7% (-1,033bps yoy), while PPOP remained weak at Rp663bn (-24% yoy).
• NIM contracted despite lower CoF: NIM fell to 16.1% (-398bps yoy), despite a lower CoF of 5.8% (-30bps yoy), as loan yields declined amid rising exposure to lower-yielding commercial loans.
• Loan book contraction halted: Loans were flat mom (-5% yoy), while deposits fell 3% mom (-9% yoy), raising LDR to 64%—still offering ample room for future loan growth.

 

Apr25 Insight:

• Remained positive, supported by CoC: BBYB booked net profit of Rp32bn in Apr25, down 35% mom due to lower NIM and higher CoC.
• NIM contracted: Despite lower CoF at 5.7% (-24bps mom, -41bps yoy), NIM declined to 15.5% (-56bps mom, -179bps yoy) due to a drop in EA yield.
• Higher CoC mom, but still much lower yoy: CoC increased to 16.9% in Apr25 (vs. 15.4% in Mar25), but remained significantly lower than Apr24’s 29.7%.

 

Summary:

• BBYB’s Apr25 results remained robust, with the bottom line still solid, supported by a much lower CoC compared to the high base last year. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BDMN (Not Rated) - 4M25 Bank-Only Results

4M25 Insights: 

• Net Profit Rose 1% yoy Amid Lower Provisions: BDMN posted a net profit of Rp1.0tr (+1% yoy), mainly driven by a 12% yoy reduction in provisioning expenses.
• NIM Remained Under Pressure: NIM narrowed to 4.7% in 4M25 (vs. 5.1% in 4M24), reflecting elevated CoF, which rose 20bps yoy to 3.7%, and a softer EA yield of 7.8% (vs. 8.0% in 4M24).
• Solid Loan Growth and Modest Deposit Growth: Loans expanded 10% yoy (+1% mom), while deposits increased 4% yoy but fell 1% mom, pushing LDR higher to 109.2% (+181bps mom, +583bps yoy).
• CoC Improved: CoC declined to 1.5% in 4M25, from 1.8% in the same period last year.

 

Apr25 Insights:

• Net Profit Rose Backed by Lower Provisions: Net profit reached Rp268bn (+20% mom, +47% yoy), with yoy growth driven by improved CIR and a 25% yoy drop in provisions. The mom increase was primarily due to a 21% mom decline in provisioning.
• CIR – Improved yoy But Increased mom: CIR rose slightly to 54.0% in Apr25 (vs. 53.7% in Mar25), but improved yoy (Apr24: 55.8%). The mom increase in CIR was driven by a 4% decline in NII, while the yoy improvement stemmed from a 5% gain in NII and a 13% increase in other operating income.
• Continued NIM Compression: NIM fell to 4.6% in Apr25 (-26bps mom, -26bps yoy), reflecting a lower EA yield of 7.8% (-25bps mom, -10bps yoy). CoF rose 9bps yoy to 3.8% but held steady mom.
• Improved CoC: CoC improved further to 1.4% in Apr25, down from 1.8% in Mar25 and 2.0% in Apr24.

•  

Summary:

• Overall Performance: BDMN’s results benefited from lower CoC and healthier provisioning trends. However, persistent NIM contraction remained a concern, as elevated CoF and weaker EA yield continued to pressure margins, despite a still-high LDR. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BNGA (Not Rated) - 4M25 Bank-Only Results

4M25 Insights: 

• Net Profit Growth Driven by Lower CoC: BNGA posted net profits of Rp2.3tr (+4% yoy) in 4M25, representing 33% of the consensus estimate (in line), supported by a significantly lower CoC of 0.3% (vs. 0.7% in 4M24).
• NIM Remained Under Pressure: NIM continued to compress, standing at 3.7% in 4M25 (vs. 4.1% in 4M24), weighed down by persistently high CoF (+12bps yoy to 3.9%) and a lower EA yield of 7.1% (vs. 4M24: 7.5%).
• Loan Growth & TPF Contraction: Loans rose 8% yoy (flat mom), but customer deposits declined by 1% yoy (-2% mom). This drove LDR higher to 87.2%, from 86.0% in Mar25 and 79.8% in Apr24. CASA ratio reached 67.2% (-25bps mom, +313bps yoy).
• Lower CoC: CoC improved to 0.3% in 4M25 from 0.7% in 4M24.

 

Apr25 Insights:

• mom Profit Decline From Mar25’s High Base: Net profit came in at Rp633bn (-29% mom, +10% yoy) in Apr25. The yoy growth was underpinned by a 9% rise in other operating income and a 19% drop in provisions. The mom decline stemmed from an exceptionally strong Mar25, which saw peak monthly profits driven by provision reversals.
• NIM Compression: NIM narrowed to 3.7% in Apr25 (-8bps mom, -35bps yoy), primarily reflecting a lower EA yield of 7.1% (-17bps mom, -29bps yoy). While CoF remained stable yoy, it improved by 12bps mom to 3.8%.
• CIR Improved on Lower Opex: CIR improved to 44.1% (-213bps mom, -6bps yoy). The mom improvement was due to an 11% decline in opex, mainly driven by a 22% drop in other expenses. On the other hand, the yoy improvement was supported by a 9% increase in other operating income, largely from dividend income of Rp194bn (vs. Rp108bn in 4M24).
• CoC: CoC stood at 0.6% in Apr25, down from 0.8% in Apr24.

 

Summary:

• Overall Performance: BNGA’s 4M25 results continued to benefit from a lower CoC. Meanwhile, although CoF improved mom, NIM remained under pressure due to a weaker EA yield. Looking ahead, the key risks lie in BNGA’s ability to sustainably improve its NIM by shifting toward higher-yielding loan segments and maintaining asset quality. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BRIS (Hold, TP: Rp2,900) Apr25 Results

4M25 Insight:

• Single-digit net profit growth: BRIS booked net profit of Rp2.4tr in 4M25 (+6% yoy), reaching 30% of our and 29% of consensus FY25F estimates — slightly below last year’s run rate of 32%.
• Robust PPOP growth: PPOP rose 12% yoy to Rp4.1tr, supported by 9% growth in NII and a strong 38% increase in fee-based income, offsetting the 18% rise in opex.
• NIM slightly declined: NIM slipped 6bps yoy to 5.4% due to a higher CoF of 2.7% (+15bps yoy), although EA yield improved 15bps.
• Higher opex elevated CIR: Opex rose 18% yoy, lifting CIR to 49%.
• Elevated but manageable CoC: CoC increased 14bps yoy to 1.0%, slightly above 1Q25’s level but still within a manageable range.
• LDR below 90%: Loans grew 14% yoy, while deposits rose 10% yoy, raising LDR to 89% in 4M25 (vs. 86% in 4M24).

Apr25 Insight:

• Bottom-line declined: BRIS booked net profit of Rp503bn in Apr25, down 30% mom (seasonal) and -5% yoy, mainly due to higher credit costs.
• PPOP growth remained healthy: Despite a 24% yoy increase in opex (due to higher promotion and other costs), PPOP still grew 10% yoy, driven by 11% NII growth and a 46% rise in other income.
• Stable yoy NIM: NIM remained stable as the increase in EA yield offset the higher CoF.
• CIR edged up further: CIR rose to 50% (+307bps yoy), reflecting elevated cost pressure in the promotion and other expenses.
• CoC spiked: CoC rose to 1.3% in Apr25 (+52bps mom, +40bps yoy), raising concerns about potential asset quality risks.

Summary:

• We view BRIS’s Apr25 results as soft, with rising opex and CoC overshadowing otherwise strong growth in NII and fee-based income. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

MEDC (Buy, TP: Rp1,400) 1Q25: Below estimate from AMMN's loss

• MEDC recorded a 1Q25 NP of US$18mn, -81% qoq, reaching 9%/5.7% of ours/cons estimate. Weak result was mainly caused by AMMN's inability to export copper concentrate as they are still in the commissioning phase of its copper cathode smelter. Thus, MEDC recorded a US$20mn loss in JV, with AMMN's net loss of US$29mn.
• 1Q25 revenue dropped by -9% qoq to US$560mn, which was inline and reached 26%/26% of ours/cons estimate. Revenue dropped due to lower O&G sales of US$509mn, -10% qoq, as gas lifting slightly dropped to 532BBTUD, -4.2% qoq, while it was partially offset by stronger oil lifting of 41MBOPD, +4.4% qoq.
• Other factors include lower electricity sales of 871GWh, -24% qoq, though its effect towards revenue are relatively small due to an avg. increase of IPP ASP to US$4c/kwh, +14.3% qoq. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

NISP (Not Rated) 4M25 Bank-Only Results

4M25 Insights:

• Net Profit Growth Supported by Higher NII and Other Operating Income: NISP reported a net profit of Rp1.7tr (+12% yoy) in 4M25, mainly driven by a 6% increase in NII and a substantial 175% surge in other operating income that came from a 140% increase in gains from the sale of financial assets, as well as a turnaround in spot/derivative transactions, which posted a gain this year compared to a loss in the same period last year.
• CIR Improved Significantly: CIR dropped sharply to 48.7% in 4M25, a substantial improvement from 59.6% in 4M24.
• NIM Still Under Pressure: NIM contracted to 4.2% in 4M25 (vs. 4.4% in 4M24), as elevated CoF (+24bps yoy to 3.7%) outweighed a broadly stable EA yield of 7.4% (+4bps yoy).
• Lower CoC: CoC stood at 0.1% in 4M25.

 

Apr25 Insights:

• Sequential Profit Decline, Annual Growth Remains Solid: Net profit stood at Rp415bn (-9% mom, +15% yoy). While yoy gains were backed by an 11% increase in NII, the mom decline reflected a 5% drop in NII and an 18% decrease in other operating income.
• NIM Compression: NIM narrowed to 4.1% in Apr25 (-31bps mom, -18bps yoy). The mom decline occurred despite a lower CoF at 3.7% (-13bps), as the EA yield dropped to 7.5% (-29bps yoy). On a yoy basis, NIM contracted despite a 25bps increase in EA yield, due to a 32bps rise in CoF.
• Funding Growth Remains Stronger Than Lending: Customer deposits grew (+3% mom, +21% yoy), outpacing loan growth (flat mom, +11% yoy), pushing LDR down to 75.5% (vs. Apr24: 82.2%, Mar25: 77.3%).
• CIR Improved: CIR improved to 46.6% (-46bps mom, -879bps yoy), with the mom improvement driven by an 8% reduction in opex, mainly from a 13% cut in salary expenses. The yoy improvement was supported by higher NII.
• mom Higher CoC: CoC stood at 0.5% in Apr25, up from 0.4% in Mar25.

 

Summary:

• Overall Performance: NISP’s 4M25 results demonstrated robust net profit growth, driven by enhanced cost efficiency and a consistently low CoC. Furthermore, The bank’s low LDR level (75.5% in Apr25) indicates ample room to support future loan growth, potentially serving as a growth engine in the coming quarters. However, NIM remained under pressure. Going forward, effective management of CoF and sustained loan growth will be crucial to stabilizing NIM. Risk to the bank’s future performance also lies in the bank’s ability to maintain its low CoC. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

Superbank - Apr25 Results

4M25 Insights:

• Return to Profitability: Superbank booked a net profit of Rp9bn in 4M25, reversing the Rp127bn net loss in 4M24. The turnaround was driven by a 132% yoy surge in NII and a 757% yoy jump in other operating income, while opex rose just 24%.
• Significant CIR Improvement: Robust growth in NII and other operating income led to a sharp drop in CIR to 78.5% (from 156.3% in 4M24). The increase in other operating income was mainly driven by a surge in fee income from Rp335mn in 4M24 to Rp25bn in 4M25.
• NIM Expansion on Higher EA Yield: NIM climbed 66bps yoy to 9.3%, supported by a 373bps increase in EA yield to 13.0%, despite a 198bps rise in CoF to 6.9%.
• Lower CoC: CoC improved to 3.3% in 4M25, down from 4.0% in 4M24.

 

Apr25 Insights:

• Stronger Profitability: Net profit reached Rp8bn in Apr25, up 133% mom and a recovery from a Rp22bn net loss in Apr24. The mom growth was mainly driven by a 35% decline in provisioning, while the yoy turnaround was supported by 124% yoy NII growth and a tenfold yoy rise in other operating income.
• CIR Rose mom Due to Higher Opex: CIR increased to 74.2% in Apr25 (vs. 66.2% in Mar25), though significantly better than 151.6% in Apr24. The mom rise stemmed from a 19% increase in opex, particularly due to an 86% mom spike in other expenses. The yoy improvement was underpinned by strong growth in NII and fee-based income.
• NIM Declined (mom): NIM fell 19bps mom to 9.3%, as EA yield edged down to 13.3% (-7bps mom) and LDR decreased to 103.7% (-357bps mom), despite a 23bps mom improvement in CoF to 6.9%. On a yoy basis, NIM still expanded 34bps, supported by a 370bps rise in EA yield, although partially offset by a 174bps increase in CoF.
• Improved CoC (mom): CoC dropped to 3.2% in Apr25, improving significantly from the high base of 5.3% in Mar25, though still 71bps higher yoy compared to Apr24’s 2.5%.
• Deposits Outpaced Loans: Customer deposits rose 7% mom and 1,013% yoy, outpacing loan growth of 4% mom and 137% yoy. This drove LDR down to 103.7% in Apr25 from 107.3% in Mar25 and 486.5% in Apr24.

 

Summary:

• Overall Performance: Superbank's Apr25 performance saw notable mom improvement, mainly driven by lower CoC from the elevated Mar25 level, offsetting NIM compression and rising opex. On a yoy basis, the bank’s performance reflected meaningful progress as it scales as a digital bank. Looking ahead, sustaining performance will hinge on its ability to maintain NIM with a healthy LDR and keeping CoC under control. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

TBIG (Hold, TP: Rp1,800) – 1Q25 results broadly inline with expectations

• TBIG reported 1Q25 earnings in line with our/consensus estimates, reaching 30%/26% of FY25 forecasts.
• Revenue came in at Rp1.73tr (-0.5% qoq, +1.6% yoy), as higher churn and limited collocation adds weighed on growth, keeping tenancy ratio at 1.78x (vs 1.79x in 4Q24).
• EBITDA declined slightly to Rp1.45tr (-1.3% qoq, -1.2% yoy), with margin compressing by 65bps to 83.6%.
• Net profit (NP) posted at Rp413bn (+113% qoq, +18% yoy), largely due to a low base in 4Q24, which was impacted by non-cash impairments and a spike in effective tax rate.
• Hedged Net debt/EBITDA elevated by to 5.34x.
• We view the recent rally likely reflects market response to the rate cut, given TBIG’s higher leverage vs peers. (Kafi Ananta - BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Court Grants Temporary Stay on Trump Tariff Rollback Pending Review

A federal appeals court granted President Trump a temporary stay on a ruling that blocked much of his tariff agenda, allowing the levies to remain while the case proceeds. The decision delays a 10-day deadline to unwind the tariffs, with a full review expected by June 9. A separate ruling also found some tariffs unlawful but limited its scope, giving the Justice Department 14 days to appeal. (Bloomberg)

 

US Inflation-Adjusted Spending Rose Just 0.1% in Apr25

US inflation-adjusted spending rose just 0.1% in Apr25, while core PCE eased to 2.5% yoy—its slowest pace in over four years. A near 20% drop in imports narrowed the trade deficit, but weak sentiment and a record-low personal finance outlook signal growing consumer caution despite limited tariff impact on prices so far. (Bloomberg)

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update May 30, 2025

Automotive: Indonesia Targets 2mn EVs by 2027–2028

The government aims to produce 2mn electric vehicles by 2027–2028 as part of President clean energy push. Achieving this requires 150 gigawatts of battery capacity. To support the plan, Indonesia is strengthening its battery supply chain through nickel downstreaming and has partnered with China due to its strong investment commitment. (Kontan)

 

Healthcare: Government Postpones Standard Inpatient Care (KRIS) Implementation to December 2025

The Indonesian government has postponed the implementation of the Standard Inpatient Care (KRIS) program to December 31, 2025. Initially, the government planned to implement KRIS services under BPJS Kesehatan starting July 1 of this year. According to the Minister of Health, the proposal for the delay arose because many hospitals have yet to meet the requirements for KRIS implementation. Based on data from the Ministry of Health, only 1,436 hospitals (57.28% of the government's target) have fulfilled the 12 criteria for KRIS implementation. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

BRMS Targets Higher Gold Output in 2025 BRMS aims to produce 70,000–75,000 oz of gold in 2025, up from 64,900 oz in 2024. In 1Q25, output surged 127% yoy to 21,900 oz, driven by higher ore grade processed—rising from 1 g/t to 1.6 g/t. (Kontan)   ISAT to Distribute Rp2.67tr in Dividends, Targets Higher Payout Ahead ISAT has announced a dividend distribution of Rp2.67tr, or Rp83 per share, representing a 54.38% dividend payout ratio and offering a 4% yield. The company aims to increase its payout ratio to as high as 70% by 2026. (Bisnis)   MEDC Secures Rp8tr Long-Term Loan from BBRI MEDC signed a Rp8tr loan agreement with BBRI on May 26, 2025. The 10-year term loan, classified as a material transaction, exceeds 20% of MEDC’s equity and supports the company’s medium- to long-term financing strategy. (Kontan)   MTEL to Distribute Rp2.06tr in Dividends MTEL has announced a total dividend of Rp2.06tr for fiscal year 2024, equivalent to 98% DPR. The distribution includes a regular cash dividend of Rp1.47tr (Rp18.1/share) and a special dividend of Rp590.18bn (Rp7.2/share), with the remaining 2% allocated to retained earnings. Dividend yield of 4.18%. (Emiten News)   PGAS to Distribute US$271.5mn Dividend PGAS will distribute US$271.54mn (approx. Rp4.4tr) in cash dividends or Rp181 per share (yield: 10%), equal to 80% of its 2024 net profit. The decision, mirroring last year's payout ratio, was approved at the shareholders' meeting on 28 May 2025. (Bisnis)   TLKM Partners with Perplexity to Boost AI Adoption Telkomsel has officially entered a strategic partnership with Perplexity, an AI-powered answer engine company, to launch a bundled package combining Telkomsel’s high-speed, reliable internet service with access to Perplexity Pro’s premium features. This collaboration aims to accelerate the adoption of artificial intelligence across Indonesia by providing users with seamless connectivity and cutting-edge AI capabilities in one integrated offering. (Investor Daily)