FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Aneka Tambang: Upgrading FY25-27F Est. and TP on More Optimistic Sales Outlook; Growth Projects Are Underway (ANTM.IJ Rp 1,690; BUY TP Rp 2,000)

  • 4Q24 earnings grew to Rp1.4tr, +122% qoq, supported by robust gold sales of 15.2 tons, +21% qoq, and FeNi sales of 7.7kt, +61% qoq.
  • ANTM will build its 2nd gold minting plant in Gresik with c.30mn tons capacity; construction of RKEF and HPAL plants will commence in 2H24.
  • Maintain our Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp2,000. Key risks include lower commodity prices, lower utilization, and project delays.

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Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur: Resilient Product Demand to Cushion Against Rupiah Risk (ICBP.IJ Rp 9,925; BUY TP Rp 14,000)

  • We estimate FY25 vol growth of 5.3% yoy, supported by resilient demand for ICBP’s products amidst challenges in purchasing power.
  • We project FY25F core/net profit growth of 4.8%/47% yoy. Given our expectation of Rupiah depreciation, we trim our FY25F net profit by 9%.
  • Maintain Buy rating with an unchanged DCF-based TP of Rp14,000 on ICBP’s resilient earnings profile.

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Indofood Sukses Makmur: Resilient Fundamentals Backed by ICBP; Upside from CPO Export Duty Tailwind (INDF.IJ Rp 6,900; BUY TP Rp 8,800)

  • We expect FY25F revenue to grow 7% yoy, driven by ICBP, Bogasari, and stable CPO prices in agribusiness.
  • We forecast FY25F core profit to grow 7.4% yoy, driven by ICBP’s strong margins and stable commodity cost outlook.
  • A 5% reduction in CPO export duty may serve as a positive catalyst for INDF’s share price. Maintain our Buy rating with a TP Rp8,800.

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Mitratel: In-Line FY24 Earnings with Growth and Continued Margin Expansion, but Outlook Weakens (MTEL.IJ Rp 510; BUY TP Rp 800)

  • 4Q24 revenue growth was solid, driven by Telkom projects and FTTT growth, including the UMT acquisition.
  • FY24 net profit was in line amid strong 82.7% EBITDA margin (+230bps yoy), despite higher interest from M&A and higher tax.
  • Maintain Buy rating with lower TP of Rp800 to reflect -6.6% est. cut in FY25-27; MTEL remains best positioned for MNOs' ex-Java growth.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

MIDI (Buy, TP: Rp540) – Key Takeaways from MIDI’s FY24 Earnings Call:

·         MIDI acknowledged soft purchasing power in 1Q25. However, with 52% of its stores located outside Java, the company still reported solid 1Q25 SSSG of 12.5%.

·         Lancar Wiguna Sejahtera (LWS – Lawson) will hold a shareholder meeting in early May 2025. MIDI expects the signing to take place in mid-May 2025.

·         MIDI is projected to book a loss of around Rp50bn from 4.5 months of Lawson operations under its ownership this year.

·         MIDI maintained its FY25 guidance of mid-single-digit SSSG and low-teens revenue growth. However, in post-divestment, the company may exceed its growth guidance. (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

 

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Trump Warns Tariffs Are Coming for Electronics After Reprieve

President Trump confirmed that tariffs will still apply to phones, computers, and electronics, despite a temporary exemption. The reprieve—from 125% tariffs on China and a 10% global rate—is a procedural step toward a more targeted levy. Trump stressed that no one is “off the hook,” as the administration shifts focus to semiconductors and the entire electronics supply chain. (Bloomberg)

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 11, 2025

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CORPORATE

ASTRA Infra Reports 6.6 Million Vehicles During 2025 Eid Holiday Travel

PT ASTRA Infra recorded 6.6 million vehicles crossing three toll roads it manages during the 2025 Eid travel period from March 21 to April 11. The toll roads include Tangerang-Merak, Cikopo-Palimanan, and Jombang-Mojokerto, with a notable increase in public reliance on toll infrastructure. (Kontan)

 

EXCL Embraces eSIM and Biometric Registration to Boost Data Security

EXCL is set to adopt eSIM technology and enhance customer data verification through biometric authentication, in support of the government's vision for accelerating national digital transformation. The new system will include biometric verification such as face recognition linked directly to Dukcapil database. This process ensures that each NIK can only be associated with a maximum of three phone numbers, in line with current regulations, thereby improving security and transparency in the future of digital communications. (Bisnis)

 

FORE to Expand After Successful IPO

FORE (PT Fore Kopi Indonesia Tbk.) is officially listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) on April 14, 2025, following a successful IPO that was oversubscribed by 200.63 times. From the proceeds, FORE plans to allocate Rp275bn to expand its network by building 140 outlets in stages over the next two years. (Kontan)

 

FREN: Updated Warrant Series III Schedule

Key date changes for FREN Warrant Series III:

  • End of trading (Regular & Negotiation): 11 Apr 2025
  • End of trading (Cash Market): 11 Apr 2025
  • Last exercise date: 15 Apr 2025
  • Delisting date: 16 Apr 2025 (IDX)

 

PGEO and Zorlu Enerji Sign Joint Study Agreement on Geothermal Development

PGEO signed a Joint Study Agreement (JSA) with Turkish energy company Zorlu Enerji to explore geothermal project development in Turkey. The signing, witnessed by Indonesian and Turkish ministers, took place during the Türkiye-Indonesia CEO Roundtable Meeting. This collaboration aims to boost clean energy transition efforts, facilitate technology transfer, and strengthen geothermal industry supply chains. The agreement follows a prior memorandum signed during President Erdogan’s state visit, emphasizing stronger energy resilience between Indonesia and Turkey. (Emiten News)

 

WIFI: NTT East Invests Rp 4 trillion in IJE for 49% Ownership

  • On April 11, 2025, WIFI’s subsidiaries, JIA and IJE signed key agreements with NTT East, including a Shareholders Agreement and Share Subscription Agreement.
  • NTT East has officially become a Strategic Shareholder in IJE by investing Rp4tr through a private placement, acquiring 49% ownership in IJE.
  • This strategic partnership is expected to strengthen WIFI Group’s internet business expansion and provide more affordable internet services to the Indonesian public, leveraging NTT East’s expertise as a leading Japanese telecom multinational. (IDX)