FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

BBTN (Buy, TP Rp1,500) – (Bank-only) Feb26 Results

Feb26 Insight (Feb25’s number include BSN):

• Robust bottom line even without BSN: BBTN posted a net profit of Rp273bn in Feb26, up 19% mom and 82% compared to Feb25, which included BSN numbers.
• Lower NIM on seasonality: NIM declined 16bps mom to 3.4% due to Feb seasonality but remained otherwise robust.
• PPOP declined amid higher opex: Opex increased 11% mom amid Feb seasonality. With NII declined by 2% mom, this results in a 9% mom decline in PPOP in Feb26.
• CoC back to 1.0%: CoC declined from last month’s high base to 1.0% (-39bps mom), driven by a 29% reduction in provision expenses.

 

2M26 Insight (2M25’s number include BSN):

• Doubled bottom line even without BSN: BBTN posted a net profit of Rp503bn in 2M26, doubling the low base last year which incorporated BSN.
• Ahead last year but slightly below expectations: 2M26 earnings formed 14% of our and consensus’ FY26F, ahead of last year’s 7% but slightly below expectations, which we believe is due to the deconsolidation of BSN compared with last year’s consolidated numbers.
• Strong NIM improvement offsetting higher CoC: NIM improved to 3.5% (+77bps yoy) as significant CoF improvement (-92bps) more than offset the decline in yield (-19bps).
• Robust PPOP growth amid higher opex: Supported by 26% NII growth, PPOP grew 43% yoy despite a 4% yoy increase in opex.
• Higher CoC: CoC increased to 1.2% (+18bps yoy), driven by a 13% rise in provision expenses.
• Lower CASA ratio: CASA ratio declined to 45% from 50%, suggesting that Sharia deposits previously carried a higher CASA ratio than conventional deposits.

 

Summary

• We see improving mom profitability in Feb26 was robust, given that NIM remained resilient amid the seasonality, although the bottom line was supported by the lower CoC. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BRIS (Buy, TP Rp3,100) – (Bank-only) Feb26 Results

Feb26 Insight:

• Net profit up 17% yoy: BRIS reported NP of Rp667bn in Feb26, up 17% yoy, driven by robust loan growth, higher NIM, and lower CoC which offset significantly higher opex. 
• Steady mom NIM: NIM remained at 5.4% (flat mom) as both EA yield and CoF declined due to Feb seasonality. On yearly basis, NIM expanded as the lower CoF outpaced the lower yield.
• Persistent higher opex drove CIR up: Opex remained high at Rp1.2tr in Feb25 (-1% mom, +26% yoy) driving CIR higher to 54%.
• CoC dropped to 0.5%: Provision expenses recorded low at Rp136bn (-55% mom, -44% yoy) despite the high loan growth bringing its Feb26’s CoC down to 0.5% which is halved mom and yoy.
• LDR inched up a bit: Compared to Jan26, LDR inched up 97bps to 88% due to 1% lower deposits mom, but loan was steady.

 

2M26 Insight:

• Net profit up 17% yoy: BRIS reported NP of Rp1.4tr in 2M26, up 17% yoy, driven by robust loan growth, higher NIM, and higher fee-based income which more than enough to offset spike in opex.  
• Higher NIM from CoF improvement: NIM recorded 24bps higher as the 48bps CoF improvement offset the 27bps lower yield. 
• Higher CIR on opex: Opex growth recorded at 27% yoy, bringing CIR higher by offsetting the 17% NII growth and 25% other income growth.
• Provision exp. reported lower despite high loan growth: Despite the 14% loan growth, provision expenses declined 10% resulting in a CoC of 0.8% in 2M26 (2M25: 1.0%).

 

Summary:

• Overall performance: BRIS’s Feb26 results were Neutral, supported by robust loan growth and NIM improvement, but the opex increase should be closely monitored. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BUKA (Buy, TP: Rp165) – FY25 Revenue Above Our Est., Inline with Consensus; Adj. EBITDA Beat Our Est., Targeting Positive in FY26

4Q25 Results

• BUKA recorded +8.8% qoq revenue growth to Rp1.8tr, with 84% contributed by gaming segment, supported by stronger transaction activity amid year-end seasonality.
• Contribution margin increased in-line with topline (+8.0% qoq to Rp80bn), supported by stronger gaming margins driven by more disciplined marketing spending, partly offset by higher promotional discounts in retail segment during the year-end period.
• Net profit declined to Rp223bn (-91% qoq), primarily due to the higher base in 3Q25 which benefited from mark-to-market gains on BBHI.
• EBITDA came in at Rp-62bn in FY25, above our est. of Rp-167bn. BUKA targets to achieve positive adj. EBITDA in FY26, supported by improving profitability across segments.

 

Cash and investment position stood at Rp18.9tr in 4Q25. BUKA indicated no significant change in its capital allocation strategy, continuing to evaluate both organic and inorganic opportunities.

• Management plans to deploy its cash primarily to support organic expansion across new markets, brands, and locations, while also evaluating selective inorganic opportunities. At the same time, corporate actions such as share buybacks remain possible, although no definitive decisions have been made. (Kafi Ananta & Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

US PCE Inflation Rose 2.8% Yoy in January 2026

US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 2.8% y-y in January 2026, slightly easing from 2.9% in December but remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Meanwhile, core PCE increased 3.1% y-y, the highest level in nearly two years, up from 3.0% previously, indicating persistent underlying price pressures. On a monthly basis, core PCE rose 0.4% m-m, matching December’s pace and marking the strongest increase in ten months. The uptick was largely driven by service-sector costs, particularly healthcare and transportation, alongside firm core goods prices, including durable household equipment and vehicles. (Trading Economics, US BEA)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Mar 13, 2026

CORPORATE

ASII Plans Up to Rp2tr Share Buyback

ASII plans to buy back up to Rp2tr worth of its share between March 16 and June 15, 2026. The buyback aims to enhance shareholder value and support confidence in Indonesia’s capital market. The company stated the repurchase will not exceed 20% of its paid-up capital and will keep the public float above the 7.5% regulatory minimum. (Emiten News)

 

EMAS Begins Commercial Gold Production at Pani Mine

EMAS began production at the Pani Gold Mine in February 2026, marking its transition from development to commercial operations. The company delivered its first gold shipment on 27 February 2026 to Aneka Tambang under a Gold Sales & Purchase Agreement, allowing EMAS to start recognizing revenue in 1Q26. The company targets 2026 gold production of 100,000–115,000 ounces, supported by the ramp-up of the Pani project and favorable gold prices. (Investor Daily)

 

MDIY Plans Minimum 40% Dividend Payout for 2025

MDIY plans to distribute at least 40 percent of its 2025 net profit as a cash dividend. The proposal reflects the company’s commitment to delivering value to shareholders while maintaining sustainable growth. The dividend plan will be submitted for approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. Management believes its strong financial position supports both expansion and shareholder returns. (Emiten News)

 

MEDC Secures Rp10.5tr Loans to Support Production Growth

MEDC secured around Rp10.5tr in new credit facilities from banks including Bank Negara Indonesia, ICBC Indonesia, and HSBC to support operations and capex. The company targets 2026 oil and gas production of 165,000–170,000 boepd, potentially marking a record high compared with 156,000 boepd in 2025. The expansion is supported by rising reserves, with 2P reserves increasing to 564 million boe in 2025. (Bisnis)

 

PANI Injects Rp701.5bn into Three Property Subsidiaries

PANI injected Rp701.54bn in additional capital into three subsidiaries—PT Panorama Eka Tunggal, PT Cahaya Inti Sentosa, and PT Karunia Utama Selaras. The funds are intended to strengthen capital structures and support large-scale real estate development in the PIK2 project. CIS received the largest injection, followed by PET and KUS. The move aligns with the company’s strategy to expand and develop its property projects in the PIK2 area. (Emiten News)

 

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