FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

AADI (Buy, TP Under Review) – 4Q25/ FY25 results: in line; better volume offset weaker ASP

• AADI posted 4Q25 core profit of US$181mn (+36% qoq/ -23% yoy), bringing FY25 core profit to US$738mn (-23% yoy), in line at 103%/ 97% of BRIDS estimate and consensus est.
• FY25 revenue of US$4,910mn fell -8% yoy, but in-line with expectation, as stronger sales volume (+6% yoy, 108% of FY25F) offset weaker ASP (-13% yoy, 97% of FY25F). FY25 coal production of 68.7Mt rose +4% yoy, with sales volume of 71.9Mt (+6% yoy), both broadly on track vs. BRIDS forecasts (103% and 100% respectively).
• FY25 EBITDA of US$1,137mn (-9% yoy) came in at 95%/ 104% of BRIDS/ consensus, as cost came in better-than-expected; strip ratio declined slightly to 4.2x (vs. 4.3x in FY24), driving COGS/tonne to US$49.1 (-11% yoy). (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

ADMR (Not Rated) 4Q25 / FY25 Results – Slight beat on volume; ASP drag but improving

• ADMR posted 4Q25 core profit of US$93mn (+50% qoq/ -9% yoy), bringing FY25 core profit to US$298mn (-32% yoy), a slight beat at 104% of consensus est.
• FY25 revenue of US$973mn (-16% yoy), as weaker ASP (US$154/t, -25% yoy) more than offset strong volume growth. FY25 production of 7.4Mt (+12% yoy, 112% of BRIDS FY25F) and sales volume of 6.3Mt (+12% yoy, 107% of FY25F) both exceeded targets, partially cushioning the ASP miss.
• FY25 EBITDA of US$395mn (-31% yoy) came in at 100% of consensus, as cost control helped offset the pricing headwind. 4Q25 showed encouraging sequential recovery with EBITDA of US$127mn (+51% qoq) as ASP rebounded to US$160/t (+7% qoq from US$149/t in 3Q25). (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

ADRO (Buy, TP Rp2,640) 4Q25 / FY25 Results: Below ours, but ahead of cons; volumes beat, but cost disappoints

• ADRO posted 4Q25 profit from continuing operations of US$157mn (+14% qoq/ +32% yoy), bringing FY25 to US$490mn (-23% yoy), at 94%/ 131% of BRIDS/ consensus est.
• FY25 revenue of US$1,874mn fell -10% yoy but was in-line at 101%/ 102% of BRIDS/ consensus. Volumes were the bright spot: coal production of 7.4Mt (+12% yoy, 112% of FY25F) and sales of 6.3Mt (+12% yoy, 107% of FY25F) both exceeded targets. Mining services OB removal of 201.0Mn bcm was also on track (105% of FY25F). However, coal ASP of US$153.9/t (-25% yoy) came in below BRIDS at 95% of FY25F.
• FY25 EBITDA of US$778mn (-19% yoy) reached 92%/ 125% of BRIDS/ consensus, as COGS came in at 112% of BRIDS. While coal COGS/tonne fell to US$87.5 (-10% yoy, 97% of FY25F), total COGS rose +3% yoy to US$1,237mn, suggesting cost pressure from the mining services segment. (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Fell By 92K In Feb26

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 92K in Feb26, the largest drop in four months and far below expectations of a 59K gain, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%. Job losses were seen in health care, information, federal government, transportation, and manufacturing, partly due to strike activity, while social assistance continued to add jobs. Employment data for nonfarm and January were also revised lower by a combined 69K. Total employment declined and labor force participation slipped to 62.0%, signaling a softer labor market. (U.S. BLS, CNBC)

 

Indonesian Government Considers MBG Budget Savings if Oil Prices Surge

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the government may implement budget savings under the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) Program if global crude oil prices surge to US$92 per barrel amid escalating Iran–Israel–US tensions, potentially pushing the fiscal deficit above the 3.6% of GDP threshold. However, He emphasized that any savings would not affect the program’s core allocation for meals provided to schoolchildren, pregnant women, and the elderly. In addition to MBG budget adjustments, the government may also reduce spending on infrastructure projects that can be executed on a multi-year basis if fiscal pressures intensify. (CNBC Indonesia)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Mar 6, 2026

Banks: Indonesian Government Plans Additional Rp100tr Fund Placement in Banks

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa plans to place an additional Rp100tr of government funds in the banking system to increase liquidity. The move follows the government’s earlier placement of Rp200tr in state-owned banks (Himbara) since Sep25, sourced from idle government funds previously held at Bank Indonesia. The additional Rp100tr placement will adopt a more flexible scheme compared to the previous six-month deposit on call arrangement, allowing the government to withdraw or add funds at any time depending on liquidity needs or state spending requirements. (Kontan)

 

Retail: BINA Lebaran 2026 Targets Rp53tr in Retail Transactions

The Belanja di Indonesia Aja (BINA) Lebaran 2026 program aims to generate Rp53tr in retail transactions during Ramadan and Eid through promotions across more than 400 shopping centers and 80,000 stores nationwide. Retail associations report mall visits have already risen 10–15%, with shopping expected to peak before Eid. The government hopes the program will boost domestic consumption and support economic growth in early 2026. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

CNMA Records 85 Million Viewers in 2025

CNMA recorded 85 million moviegoers in 2025 while expanding its network with 12 new cinemas and 43 additional screens, bringing the total to 267 cinemas and 1,388 screens nationwide. The company posted Rp5.9tr in revenue and Rp776.2bn in net profit, supported by higher ticket prices and strong demand for premium formats like IMAX and The Premiere. (Emiten News)

 

JPFA Cuts Feed Prices to Support Poultry Sector Stability

JPFA has reduced livestock feed prices to help lower production costs for farmers and maintain stable poultry prices ahead of Eid al-Fitr. The move supports government efforts, through the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia, to improve efficiency in the poultry industry and ensure stable supply during periods of rising demand. The company expects the policy to help farmers sustain production while keeping chicken products affordable for consumers during Ramadan and the Eid holiday season. (Kontan)

 

MIKA Plans Rp1tr Share Buyback

MIKA plans a share buyback worth up to Rp1tr to repurchase its shares from the market. The program will be funded using the company’s internal cash reserves, not loans or IPO proceeds, and management said it will not disrupt operations due to strong working capital. The buyback will be conducted without a shareholders meeting, following regulations from Financial Service Authority, and is scheduled to run until 7 June 2026. (Emiten News)

 

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