FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Retail: Channel Check: Sustained Promotions into Ramadan; Festive Momentum Intact (OVERWEIGHT)

• Most retailers ran promos through Jan-Feb26; MAPA rotated weekly offers, while MAPI eased fashion discounts after year-end.
• We expect festive sales momentum to hold on a low base & fiscal support, despite weak currency remaining a margin risk.
• Maintain Overweight on the sector; top picks are MIDI (Buy, TP Rp550) and MAPA (Buy, TP Rp800).

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Bank Rakyat Indonesia: FY25 Results: In line; Pricing in NIM compression and Higher CoC (NOT RATED)

• BBRI booked a solid 4Q25 earnings of Rp15.9tr (+9% qoq, +5% yoy) bringing its FY25 to Rp56.6tr (-5% yoy), in line (101%) with cons.
• expect moderating loan growth to 7-8% in FY26, NIM of 7.4-7.8%, steady CIR at 41-43%, and improving CoC to 2.9-3.2%.
• BBRI currently trades at 1.8x FY26C PBV, at -0.8SD of its 5-year mean, reflecting the challenging micro business conditions.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ARTO (Buy, TP: Rp3,100) - Jan26 Results

Jan26 Highlights

• Solid start to the year: ARTO booked net profit of Rp26bn in Jan26 (+31% yoy), driven by strong PPOP growth and lower CoC. Despite the solid earnings momentum, this came in below ours/cons expectations, which imply FY26F earnings growth of 57%/93% from FY25F, respectively.
• No mom comparisons: month-on-month comparisons are not available due to the absence of FY25 numbers.
• Moderating NIM: NIM slipped 81bps yoy to 9.6% from a high base, as EA yield declined 62bps while CoF increased 15bps.
• Encouraging fee-based income: ARTO recorded solid fee-based income of Rp43bn (+42% yoy), helping improve CIR by partly offsetting higher opex (+20% yoy).
• Improving CoC: CoC declined to 4.3% (–34bps yoy) as loan growth (+32% yoy) outpaced provision growth (+25% yoy).
• Robust loan and deposit growth: Loans grew 32% yoy while deposits increased 30% yoy, bringing LDR to 96.2%.
• CASA ratio slightly declined: Amid tight funding competition, CASA fell 165bps to 51.0% in Jan26.

 

Summary

• ARTO delivered a solid Jan26 performance, supported by strong loan growth, improving credit cost, and solid fee-based income. However, aggressive loan expansion could increase CoF pressure if liquidity conditions tighten. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BBYB (Hold: TP: Rp400) - Jan26 Results

Jan26 Insight:

• Still solid bottom line but lower from high base: BBYB recorded a net profit of Rp57bn in Jan26, in line with ours and consensus, albeit 18% lower than Jan25’s high base.
• No mom comparisons: Month-on-month comparisons are not available due to the absence of FY25 numbers.
• Negative NII on lower loan and NIM: NII dropped 19% yoy as loans contracted 13% and NIM fell 467bps yoy.
• Lower NIM on weaker asset yield: NIM declined to 14.2% (-467bps yoy) as EA yield dropped to 19.3% amid continued loan contraction, offsetting the lower CoF of 5.9% (-16bps yoy).
• Negative PPOP due to lower NII: Despite 4% higher other income and 5% lower opex, PPOP still declined 20% yoy due to the 19% drop in NII.
• CoC remained low: CoC improved by 98bps yoy to 18.0% as provision expenses declined 21%. However, Jan26’s CoC was higher than 11M25’s CoC of c.16%.
• Loan book continued to contract: Loans fell 13% yoy to Rp7.2tr while deposits grew 4% yoy, bringing LDR down to 52.4%.

 

Summary:

• BBYB’s Jan26 results were Neutral, as earnings declined from last year’s high base, although the low LDR provides sufficient room to support future loan growth. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BBRI (Not Rated) - Bank-only Jan26 Results

Jan26 Insight:

• Earnings moderation: BBRI booked a net profit of Rp3.7tr in Jan26, down 25% mom from Dec25’s high base but up 85% yoy from Jan25’s low base, forming slightly below (6%) consensus’ FY26F consolidated NP, in our view.
• Solid NII amid lower NIM: The bank recorded NII of Rp9.8tr (-4% mom, +10% yoy), supported by robust loan growth, partly offset by softer NIM.
• NIM contraction amid lower CoF: Liquidity remained ample, with CoF declining to 2.6% in Jan26 (-16bps mom, -70bps yoy). However, NIM fell to 6.5% (-33bps mom, -7bps yoy) as EA yield dropped below 9%.
• Opex flattish yoy: Opex declined 29% mom from Dec25’s high base and remained flat yoy.
• Credit cost elevated but lower yoy: CoC stayed high at 3.7%, though still significantly lower than Jan25’s elevated base of 5.6%.
• Robust loan and deposit growth: Loans grew 1% mom while deposits increased 2% mom, bringing LDR down to 90.5% (from 92.0% in Dec25).

 

Summary:

• BBRI’s Jan26 results were Soft, as NIM declined despite CoF improvement due to a 3-year record low EA yield, while the challenging micro outlook continued to keep CoC elevated. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BNGA (Buy, TP: Rp2,100) - Bank-Only Jan26 Results

Jan26 Insights:

• Net profit jumped 63% yoy from Jan25’s low base: BNGA posted net profit of Rp580bn in Jan26 (-7% mom, +63% yoy), forming 8% of our/cons FY26F, i.e., in line.
• NIM improved yoy despite softer EA yield: EA yield declined to 6.9% (-38bps mom, -47bps yoy), but NIM rose to 3.9% (+19bps yoy) as CoF fell to 3.3% (-79bps yoy, flat mom), indicating funding cost relief and CASA optimization continued to support margins. On the other hand, NIM declined mom from Dec25’s high base.
• PPOP surged 40% yoy: PPOP reached Rp865bn (+54% mom, +40% yoy), driven by higher other operating income (+194% mom, +78% yoy) mainly from gains from sale of financial assets and decrease in fair value of liabilities, while NII rose 4% yoy and opex increased 8% yoy. On a monthly basis, the strong PPOP growth was mainly supported by the jump in other income.
• Provisioning fell yoy and normalized mom from Dec25’s reversal: Provision expenses declined to Rp125bn (-23% yoy) in Jan26 (vs. Rp210bn reversal in Dec25). CoC stood at 0.7% in Jan26, improving 22bps yoy, which helped lift net profit further.
• LDR fell to 80.3% amid softer loans: Loans declined 5% mom and grew only 1% yoy, while deposits were flat mom and rose 9% yoy. As a result, LDR fell further to 80.3% from 84.1% in Dec25. Meanwhile, CASA improved to 72.1% (+196bps mom, +579bps yoy), indicating a better funding mix.

 

Summary:

• Overall performance: BNGA’s Jan26 results were in line, with strong yoy earnings growth from Jan25’s low base, driven by higher NOII, better funding mix, and improved margin despite softer EA yield and weak loan growth. (Naura Reyhan Muchlis & Victor Stefano – BRIDS)

JPFA (Buy, TP: Rp3,100) - 4Q25 Results: Above

• Record high NP: JPFA posted a record-high quarterly net profit of Rp1.6tr in 4Q25 (+36% qoq, +73% yoy), bringing its FY25 net profit to an all-time high of Rp4.0tr (+33% yoy). This was slightly above our estimate (105%) and significantly above consensus (114%).
• Revenue expansion across segments: Gross revenue rose to Rp27.0tr (+15% qoq, +24% yoy), supported by double-digit yoy growth across all business segments, which we believe was driven by both higher ASP and volume.
• QoQ margin improvement except processed food: Gross operating margin expanded to 9.8% (+77bps qoq, +165bps yoy), benefiting from higher poultry prices during the quarter partly offset by higher opex (+33% qoq, +20% yoy).
• Feed segment revenue and margin expansion: Revenue increased 18% qoq and 29% yoy in 4Q25, which we believe was driven by higher volume and ASP to pass through higher costs. Despite higher local corn and slightly higher SBM prices, feed margin expanded to 9.4% (3Q25: 8.6%), which we believe was supported by higher imports of corn substitutes.
• DOC segment margin expanded: DOC margin increased from 20.6% in 3Q25 to 24.4% in 4Q25, driven by higher DOC prices in the market.
• Broiler segment supported by higher prices: After a resilient 5.5% margin in 3Q25, the broiler segment’s OPM further expanded to 9.9% in 4Q25, driven by higher ASP during the quarter.
• Processed food: JPFA recorded robust revenue of Rp2.8tr (+7% qoq, +17% yoy), but margin declined to 2.1% due to higher livebird prices, in our view.
• Our Take: JPFA delivered a strong 4Q25 performance, supported by solid revenue growth and margin expansion in the upstream and midstream segments. Alongside the corn harvest season, substitute products should continue to support margins in 1Q26, while the MBG rollout and Eid seasonality are expected to sustain strong LB and DOC prices. Maintain Buy with TP of Rp3,100. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Feb 27, 2026

CORPORATE

ASII to Distribute Rp15.8tr Total Cash Dividend

ASII plans to distribute a total cash dividend of Rp15.8tr, equivalent to Rp390/share, to shareholders this year. The company previously paid an interim dividend of Rp98 per share in October 2025, with the remaining Rp292 per share to be proposed as a final dividend at the AGMS in April 2026. (IDX)

 

BBRI Issues Rp5tr Social Bonds

BBRI raised Rp5tr from its Phase II 2026 Social Bonds, part of a Rp20tri shelf program, offering coupons of 4.85%–5.95% across three series and rated idAAA by PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia; proceeds will mainly fund MSME financing and job creation, with 2025 total assets recorded at Rp2,135 trillion. (Emiten News)

 

ENRG Reports US$13.08mn Affiliated Transaction

ENRG signed a Long Lead Goods Procurement Contract worth up to US$13.08mn with a 17-month duration to support upstream oil and gas operations. The agreement involves Energy Equity Epic (Sengkang) Pty. Ltd and the MRE-EDU Consortium and is classified as an exempt affiliated transaction as both entities are fully controlled within the ENRG group. (Emiten News)

 

PTPP Secures Rp2.76tr New Contracts in January 2026

PTPP booked Rp2.76tr in new contracts as of Jan26, surging 120.8% yoy, with projects dominated by government funding (73.31%), followed by SOEs (25.20%) and private sector (1.49%). The building segment contributed the largest share (43.28%), ahead of roads and bridges, mining, and water treatment. (Emiten News)