FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Bank Negara Indonesia: 2Q25 Earnings Missed; NIM Pressure Triggers Guidance Revision and Forecast Cut (BBNI.IJ Rp 4.090; BUY TP Rp 4,800)

• BBNI’s 2Q25 net profit fell -12% qoq/yoy, bringing 1H25 NP to Rp10.1tr (-6% yoy), below our/cons est. at 46% of FY25F, due to compressed NIM.
• Mgmt cut FY25 NIM guidance to 3.8% (prev. 4.0-4.2%) on CoF pressure; We revised our forecasts accordingly to account for lower NIM.
• Maintain Buy rating with a lower TP of Rp4,800 based on our revised forecasts, implying an FV PBV of 1.1x.

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

U.S. and EU Seal Trade Deal with 15% Tariff and Major Investment Commitments The U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods, avoiding a larger trade war. Key highlights include US$600bn in EU investment in the U.S., US$750bn in planned purchases of U.S. energy and arms, and tariff exemptions on aircraft, drugs, semiconductors, and some agricultural goods. Steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50%, with further talks expected on unresolved issues like spirits and auto standards. (Reuters)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update July 25, 2025

Indonesian Government to Eliminate Rice Categories, SPHP Price Stays Unchanged

The Indonesian government plans to eliminate the "premium" and "medium" rice categories and simplify rice pricing using a single ceiling price. This move responds to widespread mislabeling and aims to prevent misleading quality claims. However, the price of rice under the government’s SPHP program will remain at Rp12,500/kg, with 1.3 million tons distributed until year-end. The new pricing regulation will be finalized soon through inter-agency discussions. (CNBC)

 

CORPORATE

BYD Atto 1 Enters LCGC Segment, Challenges Toyota Agya with Aggressive Pricing

The arrival of BYD Atto 1, priced aggressively between Rp195–235mn, surprised the local automotive market by entering even the LCGC segment, challenging models like Toyota Agya. In response, Toyota-Astra Motor emphasized its commitment to a multi-pathway strategy—offering ICE, hybrid, and BEV technologies—stating that every segment has its own loyal customer base and that new entrants like Atto 1 are expected to expand, not cannibalize, the market. (Kontan)

 

ENRG Subsidiary Signs US$1mn Drilling Rig Service Contract

ENRG, through its subsidiary PT EMP Energi Gandewa (GDW), signed a three-month onshore drilling rig service agreement worth up to US$1.08mn with the BMA-EDU consortium on July 23, 2025. ENRG, which holds at least 99% of GDW and EDU shares, classified the deal as an affiliated transaction under OJK Rule No.42/2020. (Emiten News)

 

SMGR Supplies Cement for Bocimi Toll to Support West Java Access

SMGR is supplying 60,000 tons of UltraPro cement for the construction of the Bocimi Toll Road Section 3 (Cibadak–Sukabumi Barat), with nearly 30,000 tons delivered by mid-2025. The toll road, part of a national strategic project, will cut travel time from Jakarta to Sukabumi from 7 to 2 hours, easing logistics and boosting tourism and the local economy. (Emiten News)

 

TPIA Boosts Singapore Presence with Engineering Unit and Stake in Hiap Seng

TPIA, through its joint venture Aster Group with Glencore Asian Holdings, has established a new subsidiary, Aster Engineering Services Pte. Ltd., and acquired an 11.9% stake in Singapore-based engineering firm Hiap Seng Industries Limited. The new unit will provide engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) services to support Aster’s integrated refinery in Bukom and downstream chemical assets in Jurong. (Investor Daily)

 

UNTR Heavy Equipment Sales Update – June 2025

UNTR sold 379 Komatsu units in June 2025, marking a decline of 18.1% mom and 2.8% yoy. Despite the monthly dip, 1H25 sales rose 27.1% yoy to 2,728 units, reaching 59% of the company’s full-year target of 4,600 units. In the mining contracting segment, coal production slipped 1.6% yoy to 68.4mn tons, while overburden removal fell 9.4% yoy to 532.8mbcm. (Emiten News)