FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK
IDEA OF THE DAY
Equity Strategy Tracking the Growth Momentum
- Post 20% rally in the past 6 weeks, JCI valuation is back at -1SD. We think further rerating will now hinge on growth momentum.
- While we slightly lowered our FY25 growth expectations to 3% (from 4.5% previously), data points in Apr25 offer hopes for recovery, particularly if we see revival of govt spending in 2Q25 onwards.
- We retain our FY25-end JCI target of 7,350 for now (implying 13.7x PE). From our ‘value’ picks, we continue to like INTP, BBRI, CTRA, MIKA.
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MARKET NEWS
MACROECONOMY
Indonesia’s Current Account Deficit Narrowed to US$0.2bn
Indonesia’s current account deficit narrowed to US$0.2bn (0.1% of GDP) in 1Q25 from US$1.1bn (0.3%) in 4Q24, supported by a larger non-oil & gas trade surplus amid falling imports. However, the services deficit widened due to fewer tourist arrivals, while primary income deficit rose on higher investment income payments. (Bank Indonesia)
US: President Trump’s Tax Bill Passed the House
President Trump’s tax bill passed the House, advancing a multi-trillion dollar package that avoids year-end tax hikes but adds US$4tn to the debt ceiling. With a Senate vote due by August to avert default, concerns over rising deficits are mounting—highlighted by Moody’s recent US credit rating downgrade. (Bloomberg)
SECTOR
Commodity Price Daily Update May 22, 2025
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Oil and Gas: Indonesia Aims to Boost Oil and Gas Output Through Strategic Projects
The Indonesian government continues to push for increased domestic oil and gas production. This ambition is driven by the potential of 15 strategic upstream oil and gas projects expected to commence production throughout the year. If these projects become operational, the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas) targets an output increase of up to 20,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) by the end of the year. To achieve this goal, SKK Migas expects an additional 10,000 BOPD to come from fields operated by Exxon Mobil Cepu Ltd., with production beginning as early as the end of July and no later than Sep25. (Kontan)
CORPORATE
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AMRT Set to Distribute Rp1.4tr Dividend AMRT will distribute Rp1.4tr in dividends for the 2024 fiscal year, or Rp34.11 per share (yield: 1.3%), marking its largest payout in five years. The decision was made during the annual shareholders’ meeting, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%. This continues the company’s trend of increasing dividend distribution, following Rp1.19tr in 2023. (Bisnis)
CLEO to Build Three New Factories in 2025 CLEO plans to build three new bottled water factories in 2025, located in Palu, Pontianak, and Pekanbaru, aiming to become the largest bottled water plant network in Indonesia. The company has allocated Rp500bn in capital expenditure primarily for these projects. CLEO targets double-digit revenue and net profit growth in 2025, supported by expanded distribution and new product offerings tailored to evolving market demands. (Emiten News)
CPIN to Distribute Rp108 per share in Dividends CPIN will distribute cash dividends for the 2024 fiscal year amounting to Rp1.77tr, or Rp108/share, representing a dividend yield of 2.2%. This dividend corresponds to 47.70% of the net income attributable to the owners of the parent entity for the 2024 fiscal year. The cash dividend payment is scheduled for June 13, 2025. (Emiten News)
KLBF to Distribute Rp1.7tr in Dividends KLBF will distribute Rp1.7tr in dividends, or Rp36 per share (yield: 2.5%), equivalent to 52% of its 2024 net profit of Rp3.24tr. The decision was approved at the annual shareholders' meeting on May 22, 2025. KLBF also continues its Rp250bn buyback program to support share price stability. (Emiten News)
MAIN to Distribute Rp65 per share in Dividends MAIN will distribute dividends for the 2024 fiscal year totaling Rp145bn, or Rp65 per share, representing a yield of 8.5% to shareholders. The company’s dividend payout ratio stands at 30%. (Bisnis)
PGAS Secures Masela Gas Supply to Support Domestic Needs PGAS has signed a Heads of Agreement (HOA) with Inpex Masela to secure LNG supply from the Masela Block, supporting domestic gas needs. This move aligns with national efforts to reduce energy imports and advance energy transition. PGN aims to strengthen gas infrastructure and ensure long-term energy security through this strategic collaboration. (Kontan)
TOWR Subsidiaries Secure Rp500bn Loan from Bank KEB Hana Subsidiaries of TOWR, Protelindo and Iforte, have signed a facility agreement with PT Bank KEB Hana, securing a loan of Rp500bn with a three-year grace period. This financing aims to support their ongoing operations and growth initiatives. (EmitenNews) |
