FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

 Automotive: 4W Market: Persisting EV Competition Pressure; Commercial Segment Continues to Drive Recovery (NEUTRAL)

• Our visit to GIIAS confirms intensifying passenger competition, with more Chinese brand launches broadening to SUV segment.
• 1H26 commercial segment sales rose +27% YoY vs. passenger +7%, driven by electrified +76% YoY.
• ASII’s 4W business may continue to benefit from volume in 2H26 but margin upside is limited given stronger commercial mix.

To see the full version of this report, please click here 

To see the full version of this snapshoot, please click here 

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

BBYB 2Q26 Concall KTA

2Q26 & 1H26 Performance:

·         Solid net profit: BBYB posted 2Q26 net profit of Rp158bn (+15% qoq, +36% yoy), supported by lower CoF and higher fee based income. 

·         Strong fee based income: Fee-based income growth was driven largely by QRIS, wealth management, and investment activity. QRIS grew significantly, with merchant acquisition value reaching Rp6tr a month and the number of transactions reaching 267mn YTD June 2026, almost matching the full-year 2025 level (307mn). QRIS cash transfer is set to be implemented in 2H26.

·         Lower opex on one-off adjustment: Opex decreased by 4% both qoq and yoy in 2Q26, mainly due to a one-off adjustment in salary expense from lower medical insurance costs. Management expects this to normalize back to the 1Q26 level (Rp90bn).

·         Loan improved qoq but still down yoy: Slower loan growth of -12% yoy, dragged by the corporate, multifinance, and SME segment, though a qoq improvement was seen (+1.5% qoq). Management is maintaining the corporate loan at current levels while shifting focus toward consumer loans.

·         Lower third-party funds: Third-party funds decreased 8% both qoq and yoy, due to a reduction in higher-priced time deposits.

·         Relatively stable qoq LAR: LAR remained stable at 13.1% in 2Q26 and remains at a level management is comfortable with, as they continue testing new data and scoring models for its consumer loan approval.

FY26 Guidance:

·         Maintaining NIM at 13-14% vs. 1H26's 13.9%

·         Maintaining loan balance at Rp8tr by FY26-end vs. 1H26's Rp7.1tr

·         ~30% CIR vs. 1H26's 31.6%

·         ~16% CoC vs. 1H26's 16.9%

·         30-33% CASA vs. 1H26's 32.2%

·         Management will focus more on consumer loans, especially non-Akulaku channeling fintech loan, as the low-hanging fruit and key strategic focus going forward.

Other Updates:

·         Cautious loan expansion: Management remains cautious on loan growth, working on expanding risk parameters and alternative data to assess borrowers more accurately and reach previously untapped users.

·         Channeling fintech focus on utilization and KYC: New channeling partners are currently under review, with similar yields of 12-14%, though growth from new names is only expected next year.

·         Wealth management expansions: The company aims to add more partners and expand into bonds and equities. Digital bank insurance is expected to launch by the end of this month.

·         Updates on BNPL segment: BNPL has completed its limited trial, with an outstanding balance of Rp1bn and an average ticket size of Rp150k. Contribution remains very limited for now but is expected to be a growth driver starting next year.

Summary:

·         Overall, BBYB posted a modest 2Q26 result, with strong fee-based income supported by lower CoF and opex. Going forward, management aims to grow its consumer loan book through channeling fintech loans the low-hanging fruit to capture further earnings momentum. (Victor Stefano & Nataniella Eva Kezia – BRIDS)

MAIN (Buy, TP Rp900) Post-Earnings KTA

·         2Q26 headwinds: 2Q26 was pressured by weak rupiah, softer poultry demand during May–June due to the Suro period and school holidays, and the government's one-door SBM import policy. Any expansion of the one-door import mechanism to other feed raw materials could further increase feed cost pressure going forward.

·         Feed margin pressure: Feed margins contracted significantly as higher input costs and rupiah depreciation lifted production costs. Feed selling prices were adjusted only gradually to support farmers, resulting in weaker margins. MAIN was relatively more affected given its higher exposure to external feed sales vs. peers.

·         GPS import quota update: GPS import realization reached around 40% of the FY26 quota in 1H26. Management noted that it remains uncertain whether the 800k quota will be fully utilized, as the government may adjust the quota following the MBG budget cuts and supply constraints.

·         Broiler price recovery: Broiler prices have rebounded since mid-July, supported by the government's price floor intervention, the end of the Suro period, and the resumption of school activities, supporting the normalization of the MBG program.

·         Lampung Feedmill update: The new Lampung feedmill has been completed and is expected to commence commercial operations in 3Q26. Management targets 30–50% utilization within the first year, with additional depreciation estimated at around Rp20–30bn per year (total investment: ~Rp300bn).

·         2H26 outlook: Management expects demand to gradually stabilize in 2H26, supported by school resumption and MBG normalization. While July remained soft, demand is expected to recover from August onward. Meanwhile, El Niño poses a potential supply risk toward year-end, with a more meaningful impact likely during the early-2027 harvest season (Feb–Mar). (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

US Labor Market Remains Resilient as Productivity Beats Forecasts, Supporting Fed's Hold

US labor market conditions remained resilient, with initial jobless claims edging up by just 1,000 to 199,000 in the final week of July, remaining near multi-decade lows and signaling sustained employment strength. Meanwhile, Q2 nonfarm labor productivity rose 1.4% QoQ, exceeding expectations as output growth outpaced hours worked. Together, the data support the FOMC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite inflation remaining above target, reinforcing the Fed’s wait-and-see approach ahead of the September meeting as policymakers assess whether inflationary pressures continue to ease. (Trading Economics)

Commodity Price Daily Update Aug 06, 2026