FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Banks: Consumer Loan Positioning: A Clear Divide Between Growers and Retreaters (OVERWEIGHT)

·         Despite showing some stability on mom basis, MSME and consumer segments are still facing asset quality problems.

·         Among our coverage, BBTN, BRIS, and BBNI have greater earnings sensitivity to consumer loans asset quality.

·         We are Overweight on the sector with preference on banks with less consumer loan growth, i.e., BBCA, BTPS, and BNGA.  

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Data Center: KTAs from Meeting with JLL: Demand Spillover Thesis Supported; Land, Power, Water are Key (OVERWEIGHT)

·         Our demand spillover thesis is further supported by project pipelines and potential moratoriums in Malaysia and Thailand.

·         Indonesia’s power supply is ample, but substation remains the bottleneck, prompting PLN's 2GW substation plan by FY28-29.

·         Power and water remain key site-selection factors; Price in key industrial land has also re-rated sharply due to DC-driven demand.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

• MIDI (Buy, TP Rp480) – Aug26 SSSG Acceleration Supports FY26F Target
• TINS (Buy TP Rp4,800): KTA - Public Expose 2026

MARKET NEWS

ECB Raised Its Key Interest Rates by 25bps in Sep26

The ECB raised its key interest rates by 25bps in September, with the deposit rate increasing to 2.5%, marking its second hike since the US-Iran war began. The move came as eurozone inflation rose to 3.3% YoY in August, driven by a 14.3% surge in energy prices, keeping inflation above the ECB’s 2% target. The ECB maintained its 2026 inflation forecast at 3.0% but raised 2027–28 forecasts to 2.5% and 2.1%. Growth forecasts were upgraded to 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. ECB President Lagarde highlighted upside inflation and downside growth risks, with policy remaining meeting-by-meeting. (CNBC)

Indonesia’s Retail Sales Grew 1.1% yoy in Jul26

Indonesia’s retail sales grew 1.1% YoY in July 2026, ending three consecutive months of contraction, supported by stronger food, beverages and tobacco (+2.4%) and clothing (+2.8%) sales. However, automotive parts growth slowed to 5.1%, while fuel (-7.7%), information & communication equipment (-20.6%), and recreational goods (-6.7%) remained weak. On a monthly basis, retail sales declined 0.1% after rising 0.7% in June, reflecting post-holiday demand normalization. For August, BI expects growth to moderate to 0.5% YoY, with monthly sales declining 0.1%. (Bank Indonesia)