FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Equity Strategy: Oct25 Picks: Sticking with Banks, Commodities, Telco

• We maintain our positive stance on Banks as we expect better liquidity condition to be reflected in Sep25 CoF, combined with attractive yield.
• We continue to favor exposure in Commodities through Metals (INCO) and Coal (AADI).
• While Consumers sector trade at deep discount, we remain ST cautious amid lingering raw materials pressure and weaker IDR risk.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Key Takeaways from TINS Management Discussion (1 October 2025)

We met with TINS management, and here is some key takeaways from our meeting:

• Production targets: 2025 RKAB initially at 21.5k MT, now revised to 30k MT (assuming +3–4k/month in 4Q). Ambition for 2026 is 80k ore output (still preliminary).
• Smelting capacity: Installed capacity 75k MT, current utilization ~50%.
• Illegal mining crackdown: Since June, “Satgas Mandala/Halilintar” has raised monthly ore production from 1.2k to 1.7k MT; Oct–Dec could exceed 3k MT. TINS now absorbs ore previously sold by illegal miners, at zero cost.
• Export gap: In 2024, Indonesia exported 45k MT, but TINS only sold 19k MT → ~26k MT leakage. Management aims to reclaim this lost share in 2025–26.
• Cash cost trajectory: 2Q25 at USD20k/ton (down from USD23–24k); going forward could decrease to USD16k driven by higher volumes and zero-cost ore.
• Dividends: Payout ratio lifted from 30% in 2024 to 75%, with 80% targeted in 2025.
• Governance & monitoring: Kejaksaan, SDM, and Customs now directly oversee supply chain; tin ore pricing for partners is fixed to reference prices rather than market bargaining. (Nashrullah Putra Sulaeman – BRIDS)

 

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesian Government to Cover PPh 21 for Horeka Workers Starting Oct25 The government will cover PPh 21 for hotel, restaurant, and café workers earning under Rp10mn per month starting October. The move, part of economic stimulus, aims to support the tourism sector and will continue into 2026 with a Rp480bn budget. Authorities also urge unregistered villas to formalize for better data. (Bisnis)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update October 2, 2025

DPR RI Accelerates Traffic Law Revision to Achieve Zero ODOL

DPR RI met with driver associations API and RBPI to accelerate revising Law No. 22/2009 on Traffic and Road Transport, aiming for Zero Over Dimension-Over Loading (ODOL) by 2027. The meeting, attended by the Transportation Minister and Commission V, will form a small team to handle technical aspects. DPR and drivers committed to legal protection, welfare, and support facilities, while API emphasized fair, targeted rules and establishing an Independent Transportation Supervisory Agency (LPTI) within the revised law. (Investor Daily)

 

CORPORATE

AMRT Targets 1,000 New Stores in 2025 AMRT aims to open 1,000 new Alfamart stores in 2025, evenly split between the first and second halves of the year, funded through internal cash with capex of Rp4.5tr-5tr for this year. Expansion will focus largely outside Java. To boost Q4 performance, AMRT plans to optimize existing stores, run targeted promotions, strengthen its digital ecosystem, and improve operational efficiency. (Kontan)   BYD Global Sees First Sales Drop in 18 Months BYD’s September EV deliveries fell 5.5% yoy to 396,270 units, its first decline since February 2024, amid price wars and fierce competition. Despite cutting its 2025 sales target to 4.6 million units, BYD remains ahead of Tesla. Competitors like Geely, Xpeng, Leapmotor, and Xiaomi showed strong growth, while China’s EV market slowed to 10% monthly growth. Government pressure to curb price wars may limit momentum. (Bisnis)   Hyundai to Launch New EV in Indonesia in 2025 Hyundai Motors Indonesia (HMID) confirmed plans to launch at least one new electric vehicle in 2025, likely an MPV-SUV model to match strong local demand. Market signals point to IONIQ 9, already registered with Jakarta’s Bapenda, with an NJKB of Rp699mn before taxes. Hyundai is also preparing additional global models for early 2026, aligning with Indonesia’s EV policies and consumer trends. (Kontan)   MBMA Extends US$46.7mn Loan to Affiliate ZHN MBMA, through subsidiary PT Merdeka Industri Mineral, granted a US$46.7mn (Rp723.7bn) loan to affiliate PT Zhao Hui Nickel for working capital and operations. Classified as an affiliated but non-material transaction, MBMA expects the deal to boost efficiency and shareholder value. (Emiten News)