FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

 

IDEA OF THE DAY

 

 

 

 

 

 
     

Cement: Bag pricing continue to improve in Nov24; A conservative outlook from SMGR meeting (NEUTRAL)

  • SMGR/INTP pricing improved by 0.4%/0.6% mom, with Semen Merdeka positioning remaining at Tier 3 albeit with pricing improvement.
  • We also met with SMGR management, who guides for a conservative 2025 outlook as the bag market remains challenging.
  • We maintain a Neutral stance for the sector amid a lack of near-term catalysts. Our top pick remains INTP (Buy, TP Rp8,800).

To see the full version of this report, please click here

 

To see the full version of this snapshoot, please click here

 

BRIDS FIRST TAKE

  • Bank Mandiri: Oct24 results: weak net profit due to higher opex, lower recovery income, and higher CoC (BMRI.IJ Rp6,450; BUY TP Rp8,200)  

To see the full version of this report, please click here.

  • Bank Syariah Indonesia: Oct24 results: in line net profit driven by robust loan growth and sound asset quality (BRIS.IJ Rp2,910; HOLD TP Rp3,000)

To see the full version of this report, please click here.   

  • Bank Tabungan Negara: 3Q24 results: below consensus estimate amid NIM pressure and high operating expenses (BBTN.IJ Rp1,290; Not Rated)

To see the full version of this report, please click here.

 

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Superbank - Oct24 Results

10M24 Insights:

  • Net Loss: Superbank posted a net loss of Rp341bn in 10M24, as NII of Rp457bn was offset by opex of Rp756bn and provisions totaling Rp91bn.
  • CIR and Opex: The CIR reached 150.6% in 10M24, driven by elevated opex, primarily from salary expenses (Rp355bn) and other expenses (Rp280bn).
  • NIM: NIM stood at 8.3% in 10M24, with an EA yield of 9.7% and CoF of 6.4%.
  • Since Superbank was only launched as a digital bank towards the end of FY23 and many of its initiatives are still in their early stages, we believe that a yoy comparison is not an ideal measure of performance.

 

Oct24 Insights:

  • 31% mom Increase in Net Loss: Superbank's net loss rose 31% mom to Rp55bn in Oct24, driven by a 17% mom increase in opex, despite an 11% mom growth in NII and a 4% mom decline in provisions.
  • Stable NIM Despite Elevated CoF: NIM remained stable mom at 7.5% in Oct24, despite an elevated CoF of 7.4% (+16bps mom) and a lower LDR of 135.5%, as EA yield increased to 10.5% from 10.1% in Sep24.
  • CIR: CIR rose to 156.4% in Oct24 from 141.7% in Sep24, despite an 11% mom increase in NII, due to a 17% mom rise in opex and a 15% mom decline in other operating income.
  • CoC: CoC fell to 3.6% in Oct24, down from a high base of 4.1% in Sep24.
  • Customer Deposits Outpacing Loan Growth, Lowering LDR: Customer deposits surged 22% mom, significantly outpacing loan growth of 9% mom, leading to a lower LDR of 135.5% in Oct24, down from 151.2% in Sep24.

 

Summary:

  • Overall Performance: We believe the introduction of the bank's new TD product has successfully attracted customer deposits. However, this has resulted in a significant increase in CoF. Nonetheless, the bank managed to keep NIM stable MoM while lowering its LDR, as it was able to increase its EA yield and maintain stable asset quality. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

 

pic 29 Nov 2024 1.png

MARKET NEWS

 

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Nov 28, 2024

 

pic 29 Nov 2024 2.png

 

Harbolnas Targeted to Increase Transactions by 16%

The government aims to boost consumer spending with two programs, Harbolnas and BINA, running from December 10 to 16, 2024. Harbolnas, focusing on domestic MSMEs, features approximately 480 curated businesses, while BINA promotes offline shopping at retail stores and malls until the December 29, 2024. Airlangga Hartanto, the Economic Affairs Minister, highlighted the need for public awareness, and Moda Simatupang, Director General of Consumer Protection, targets a 16% increase in Harbolnas sales to approximately Rp29.8tr, despite the current challenges in consumer purchasing power. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

MDKA to Issue Sustainable Bonds Targeting Fundraising of Rp15tr

MDKA is set to conduct a public offering of its Sustainable Bonds V Merdeka Copper Gold, aiming to raise Rp15tr in total. As part of this offering, MDKA will issue and offer the first tranche of the Sustainable Bonds V Merdeka Copper Gold 2024, with a maximum principal amount of Rp1tr. The offering will consist of two series: Series A and Series B, with bond interest payments made quarterly. The first interest payment is scheduled for March 24, 2025. (Investor Daily)

 

UNTR Reports Heavy Equipment Sales of 3,764 Units as of 10M24

UNTR recorded a total heavy equipment sales volume of 3,764 units from January to October 2024. This represents a -19.77% yoy decline compared to the 4,692 units sold in 10M23. YtD sales of Komatsu equipment were primarily driven by the mining sector, accounting for 66% of total sales. Other contributions came from the forestry sector at 8%, construction at 14%, and agriculture at 12%. UNTR has set a target of selling 4,600 Komatsu units in 2025, reflecting a +6% yoy growth. (Bisnis)

 

Wuling Reaches 160,000 Units and Expands Exports to ASEAN

Wuling marked the production of 160,000 vehicles at its Cikarang plant and launched Cloud EV exports to ASEAN. Over seven years, it has established itself as a key EV player with nine vehicle lines. This milestone reflects Wuling's commitment to sustainability and Indonesia-China collaboration. (Kontan)