FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Property: Picking Quality Names to Ride the Rate Cut Sentiment (OVERWEIGHT)

·         Property stocks tend to re-rate ahead of or during rate cuts, even though pre-sales remain more dependent on product mix and launches.

·         Stronger IDR and weak consumption may pave the way for BI rate cut, with local funds already loading up on the property sector.

·         Maintain OW in the sector; prefer quality names over deep discounts to support sustainable re-rate. Top Picks: CTRA>PWON>SMRA>BSDE.

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Ciputra Development: Trimming Our FY25-27F Pre-Sales by 5%; Reiterate Buy Rating as Competitive Advantages Intact (CTRA.IJ Rp 960; BUY TP Rp 1.600)

·         CTRA’s 1Q25 earnings reflected resilient handover execution and disciplined opex, outperforming peers and company guidance.

·         Despite a strong 1Q25 pre-sales (29% of FY25F), we lowered our FY25-27F assumptions by 5%, aligning with mgmt’s guidance.

·         Maintain Buy with a lower TP of Rp1,600; CTRA remains our top sector pick with well-diversified, end-users-oriented projects.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

MDKA (Buy, TP: Rp2,400) & MBMA (Buy, TP: Rp490) – 1Q25 operational results

·         MDKA recorded a solid 1Q25 operational performance as gold sales grew by +27% qoq, which drove gold revenue up by +44%. However, a negative point is its copper cash cost that fluctuated by +69% qoq. Nonetheless, MDKA ex-MBMA rev. still grew by +29% qoq.

·         Meanwhile, MBMA recorded -24% qoq weaker revenue, due to rainy weather that disrupted limonite/saprolite production by -47%/-57% qoq, and ore revenue by -57% qoq. Furthermore, as BSI/ZHN smelter is undergoing maintenance, as well as a flood occurring in Mar25, NPI output declined by -14% qoq, and revenue by -17% qoq.

Pani gold

·         Heap leach operation reached 49% by Mar25 with scheduled operation remain intact in 2026 and CIL in 2028.

·         Slight resource upgrade per Apr25 to 7.02Moz from 6.9Moz and higher grade of 0.75g/t from 0.7g/t.

TB Copper

·         PFS is expected to be released soon, which includes a reserve upgrade and higher SLC throughput.

·         Assessing a low-cost option for extraction of pyrite concentrate through ultrafine grinding and CIL.

·         Candrian open pit maiden resource announced at 491k Oz gold and 79kt Copper. Maiden resource for Gua Macam should be announced in 4Q25.

TB Gold

·         Mine life extended through 2030, and transitioned to a larger fleet that will reduce mining cost by c.-23%.

SCM

·         Saprolite cash cost increase was caused by B40 (+US$1.63/wmt) and lower production volume, though it should trend downwards once rainy season subsides.

NPI/HGNM

·         Lower NPI output was caused by maintenance in BSI/ZHN. There will be another BSI overhaul in 2Q25, which could keep production volume lower.

HPAL

·         SLNC started construction in Jan25 with a capacity of 4x22.5ktpa, which should start operating by mid-2026. Per Mar'25, construction progress had reached 14%. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

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