Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)
3Q25 Earnings: In line; Utilizing the leeway to front-load opex and credit costs
- BBNI booked 3Q25 net profit of Rp5.0tr, due to higher opex and CoC. 9M25 NP reached Rp20.4tr (-7% yoy), in line with ours and below cons.
- Mgmt cuts FY25 NIM guidance to 3.7% (prev. 3.8%), expects stronger loan growth in FY26, lower CoF, but lending yield pressure to continue.
- Maintain Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp4,800 based on GGM with 11.8% 5-year mean CoE, implying an FV PBV of 1.1x.
9M25: Soft earnings amid NIM pressure and higher provisions
In 9M25, BBNI booked Rp20.4tr net profit, down 7% yoy but in line with our estimate (74% of FY25F) and slightly below consensus (73% of FY25F). PPOP was soft as NII slipped 1% yoy while opex rose 4% yoy, offset by a 10% gain in other operating income. NIM contracted to 3.7% (-42bps yoy) amid lower EA yield and higher CoF of 3.0%. Provisions increased 14% yoy, keeping CoC at 1.0%, in line with guidance. Liquidity remained ample, with deposits up 21% yoy, driven by Rp55tr in SAL placement. The deposit growth outpaced the 10% yoy loan growth, lowering LDR to 86.9%.
3Q25: Sequential rebound but NIM and asset quality remained soft
BBNI reported a net profit of Rp5.0tr in 3Q25, rebounding 7% qoq but still declining 11% yoy, as higher opex and CoC offset strong other operating income. NIM fell 9bps qoq to 3.6% due to lower EA yield, though improved liquidity helped ease CoD to 2.8% in Sep25 from 3.1% in Aug25. Opex rose 12% qoq to Rp7.9tr, pushing CIR to 48.0% as management booked early accruals for employee remuneration. Other operating income surged 28% qoq to Rp6.7tr, supported by robust consumer and business banking activities. Meanwhile, NPL increased to 2.0% with coverage ratio down to 223%, still sufficient but the lowest since FY21.
Outlook: Lower FY25 NIM guidance to 3.7%
Management maintained FY25 loan growth guidance of 8–10% and CoC target of ~1%, while revising NIM guidance down to ~3.7% (vs. 3.8% prev.). Management expects CoF to ease in 4Q25 as special-rate deposit declined and a 15bps SA counter rate cut in Sep25 but also lower lending yield. Management anticipates slightly stronger loan growth in FY26, though it sees lending yields to stay pressured in a lower-rate and competitive environment.
Maintain Buy with a TP of Rp4,800
We have slightly adjusted our net profit forecasts by -0.1%/+1.2%/+0.0% for FY25F/26F/27F. We maintain Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp4,800, derived from GGM with a 11.8% 5-year mean CoE and 12.4% FY25F ROE, implying an FV PBV of 1.1. Risks to our view include continued NIM compression and asset quality deterioration.
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