Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)

2Q26 Earnings: Inline; Top Line Growth Offset the Falling NIM and Higher CoC

• BBNI reported a net profit of Rp5.1tr (-10% qoq, +8% yoy) bringing its 1H26 to Rp10.8tr (+7% yoy), relatively inline with ours and cons’.
• Loan growth was robust but tight liquidity dragged NIM down and management revised its FY guidance to 3.3-3.5% (from 3.5-3.8%).
• We raised our FY26/27F NP est. by +3/+4% to reflect higher loan growth and TP to Rp4,800; maintain Buy rating.

Normalized from 1Q26’s high base and 2Q25’s low base

BBNI reported a net profit of Rp5.1tr in 2Q26 (-10% qoq, +8% yoy), as a 2% qoq decline in PPOP and a 23% qoq increase in provisions offset healthy loan growth. Consolidated loans expanded 24% yoy, driven by enterprise (+101%) and SOE corporate (+63%), while NIM declined 11bps qoq to 3.4% as lower other EA yields and tighter liquidity more than offset the relatively stable 6.9% loan yield. Liquidity tightened with LDR rising to 88.0% and CASA falling to 65.4%, while CoC increased to 1.2% as management built additional buffers for the small, consumer, and middle segments. Despite this, NPL remained stable at 1.9%.

Strong loan growth offset the lower NIM

In 1H26, net profit reached Rp10.8tr (+7% yoy), representing 52% of both our FY26F and consensus forecasts, broadly in line with expectations. Earnings growth was supported by 24% yoy loan growth, driving 14% yoy NII growth and a 14% yoy increase in PPOP despite a 17% yoy rise in opex. Meanwhile, NIM remained under pressure from lower loan yields, while CoC increased to 1.1% but stayed within management's 1.0–1.2% guidance. Overall asset quality remained resilient, as higher NPLs in the small and consumer segments were offset by improving wholesale portfolios.

Lower NIM guidance on persistent tight liquidity in 2H26

Management maintained its 8–10% loan growth and 1.0–1.2% CoC guidance but lowered its bank-only NIM target to 3.3–3.5% from 3.5–3.8%, reflecting expectations of persistent funding cost pressure amid tighter system liquidity. Management expects CoF repricing to outpace loan yield repricing in 2H26, keeping NIM under pressure, while opex growth is now expected to normalize to 7–8% yoy.

Maintain Buy with a higher TP of Rp4,800

We tweaked our FY26/27F NP by +3/+4% on higher loan growth assumption (12% vs. 10% prev.), partly offset by higher CoC. We maintain our GGM based valuation with a 5-year avg. 12.1% CoE and FY26F ROE of 12.1%, which implies an FV PBV of 1.0 and arrived at slightly higher TP of Rp4,800 (from Rp4,700). Tactical (3M) view: N. Despite decent results, the stock might see high volatility driven by macro uncertainty and tight liquidity in 2H26.

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