Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ Rp9,600; BUY TP Rp11,900) FY24 Results: in-line, solid asset quality and NIM aided in navigating the tight liquidity environment

Stock Code	Last Price	Change	Change %
DSSA	50,900	2,650	5.49%
CTBN	5,300	450	9.28%
SMMA	15,800	400	2.60%
CUAN	8,875	350	4.11%
SINI	3,500	310	9.72%
BESS	1,495	240	19.12%
NICL	1,055	175	19.89%
SGRO	2,570	170	7.08%

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

FY24 Results: in-line, solid asset quality and NIM aided in navigating the tight liquidity environment

Despite the challenging year, BBCA booked NP of Rp54.8tr in FY24 (+13% yoy), in line with our and consensus estimates.
4Q24’s NP declined 3% qoq on the back of higher opex and higher effective tax rate, partly offset by a reversal on Cessie.
We revised our FY25/26F EPS est. by +1.5/-0.3% and maintain Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp11,900. BBCA remains our top pick in the sector.

In line FY24 net profit with double digit growth

BBCA recorded a net profit of Rp54.8tr in FY24 (+13% yoy), in line with our estimate (101%) and consensus (100%). Despite tight liquidity, BBCA improved its NIM to 6.4% (FY23 6.3%), supported by a higher LDR of 81.3% (FY23 73.5%) and a larger loan portion in earning assets. Loans grew 14% yoy to Rp922tr, driven by corporate (+16%) and SME (+15%) segments. Meanwhile, TPF grew 3% yoy to Rp1,134tr as BBCA reduced its TD portion (-3% yoy) in favor of low-cost CASA funding, which grew 4% yoy, lifting the CASA ratio by ~2%. CoC remained low at 0.2% (FY23 0.1%) despite doubled provision expenses. NPL and LaR ratios improved to 1.7% (FY23 1.8%) and 5.0% (FY23 6.6%), respectively.

Lower qoq net profit on higher opex amid provision release

BBCA posted a net profit of Rp13.8tr in 4Q24 (-3% qoq, +13% yoy). PPOP declined 8% qoq (+16% yoy), partly offset by Rp0.3tr provision release (reversal on Cessie). A higher effective tax rate of 20.8% also contributed to the lower profit. CIR increased to 38.6% in 4Q24 (3Q24 33.3%, 4Q23 42.6%), driven by lower other operating income (-6% qoq) from a Rp0.4tr loss on Cessie and higher opex (+16% qoq). NIM remained steady at 6.5% in 4Q24 (-2bps qoq, +17bps yoy), with stable loan yield and CoF.

FY25 bank-only guidance: profit over market share

Management expects a moderated loan growth of 6-8% (FY24 13.8%), stable NIM of 5.7-5.8% (FY24 5.8%), stable CoC of 0.3% (FY24 0.3%), higher CIR of 33-34% (FY24 31.5%), stable LaR ratio of 5.2-5.5% (FY24 5.3%), and a 25-50bps rate cut for FY25F. We tweaked our FY25F EPS est. by 1%, taking into account a higher NIM, higher CIR, and lower CoC.

Maintain Buy with a higher TP of Rp11,900

We maintain our Buy rating and adjust our TP to Rp11,900, based on our updated forecasts. This valuation, derived from GGM with a 6.5% CoE and 21.4% FY25F ROE, implies an FV PBV of 5.2x. BBCA remains our top pick for its strong liquidity, resilient CoF, and solid asset quality. Risks to our view include further liquidity constraints, which may lead to higher CoF, and potential asset quality deterioration.

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